The US10Y is breaking out of this multi-year consolidation pattern. If we break above the previous high at 5.00%, we could potentially see 7.50%. Using a measured move, 7.48% is possible in early 2028.
With the stock market starting to show some erratic behavior, and my current belief that we'll see prices a lot lower Q3/Q4 of this year, it lines up that people will look to bonds instead of the stock market. Bonds will have a higher return, while stocks will continue to decline.
The economy has just begun absorbing the impact of oil prices and sticky inflation. The Fed can either print money and kick the can down the road or they keep interest rates high and we enter a recession (which would be my base case).
With the stock market starting to show some erratic behavior, and my current belief that we'll see prices a lot lower Q3/Q4 of this year, it lines up that people will look to bonds instead of the stock market. Bonds will have a higher return, while stocks will continue to decline.
The economy has just begun absorbing the impact of oil prices and sticky inflation. The Fed can either print money and kick the can down the road or they keep interest rates high and we enter a recession (which would be my base case).
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As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.