Selling on strength should be the main play in this market unless the technical picture is negated. For now, the technicals, with an active downcycle on the hourly, are leading the way. If we think of valuations, the flows should also be JPY positive judging by the depressed risk-off profile this week, coupled with new cycle lows in the US vs Japanese yield spreads. The area highlighted during Dec 5th report at 113.20 found enough of a supply imbalance to revert the short term recovery, with 113.00 (round number and POC) now being targeted ahead of the 112.70 hourly liquidity that lies underneath. It really feels as this is a market that is prone to be sold on strength at every chance one has of engaging of decisions points. If this first attempt fails, watch for 113.40/50 as another major resistance area to engage.
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