On Friday, stronger-than-expected US employment data triggered a repricing of Fed policy expectations. The US Dollar and Treasury yields rose sharply in tandem, putting significant pressure on gold. During the US session, heavy selling accelerated, driving gold below the prior low of $4,360, confirming a weak overall performance.
Additionally, gold ETFs have recorded outflows for seven consecutive trading days, with more than 10 tonnes withdrawn this week, indicating continued capital exodus from the market.The market is now awaiting next week’s US CPI inflation data for clearer signals on the Fed’s future path. If economic and inflation figures remain resilient, expectations for a “higher for longer” rate environment could strengthen further, keeping pressure on gold.
Chart Analysis
Gold has broken below the key bull-bear boundary — the EMA200. This marks the third correction to this level since the all-time high near $5,600. The daily candle failed to reclaim it, raising the risk of accelerated downside.
Trade Plan
Long Setup:
Price is now in deeply oversold territory. If gold reclaims the EMA200, I will look for long positions targeting the previous supply zone at $4,610–$4,620, with stop-loss below the wick low at $4,310.
Short Setup:
On any rebound to $4,610, if bearish divergence appears alongside continued heavy ETF outflows, I will look for short entries targeting fresh lows.
Summary
Gold remains in a short-term bearish bias. Key focus next week: US inflation data, shifts in Fed policy expectations, and whether ETF/capital flows show any signs of stabilization.
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.