Gold underwent a historic rally throughout 2025, essentially doubling in value driven by heightened global tensions and widespread market uncertainty. While I maintain a long-term bullish outlook with expectations for new record highs in the coming years, the immediate price action suggests a concerning trend reversal. This shift is characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows since gold reached its All-Time High (ATH) of approximately $5,500.
Technical Breakdown: Fibonacci and Trend Rejection
The initial relief bounce was rejected sharply at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which subsequently led to a new swing low below $4,400. This sequence strongly suggests that the prevailing bullish trend is losing momentum.
To gauge trend continuation, I rely on Anchored VWAPs (Volume Weighted Average Prices) measured from major pivot points—specifically, the previous two swing highs.
Current Price Action and Volume Analysis
Currently, gold is rejecting this critical VWAP zone. Most notably, we are seeing a significant drop-off in trading volume as the price returns to these averages, indicating a lack of buying conviction at higher levels.
Outlook for 2026
Sentiments regarding gold's floor vary wildly across the industry. There is a distinct possibility that we could see a retracement to the $3,500 level later this year to test the original breakout zone of the 2025 rally.
For the time being, the highest probability setup favors further downside. I will be monitoring the Anchored VWAPs closely, as they likely mark the zones where major sellers will step in to maintain the downward trajectory.
Technical Breakdown: Fibonacci and Trend Rejection
The initial relief bounce was rejected sharply at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which subsequently led to a new swing low below $4,400. This sequence strongly suggests that the prevailing bullish trend is losing momentum.
To gauge trend continuation, I rely on Anchored VWAPs (Volume Weighted Average Prices) measured from major pivot points—specifically, the previous two swing highs.
Current Price Action and Volume Analysis
Currently, gold is rejecting this critical VWAP zone. Most notably, we are seeing a significant drop-off in trading volume as the price returns to these averages, indicating a lack of buying conviction at higher levels.
Outlook for 2026
Sentiments regarding gold's floor vary wildly across the industry. There is a distinct possibility that we could see a retracement to the $3,500 level later this year to test the original breakout zone of the 2025 rally.
For the time being, the highest probability setup favors further downside. I will be monitoring the Anchored VWAPs closely, as they likely mark the zones where major sellers will step in to maintain the downward trajectory.
Nota
Will look to take a long trade at the 618 retracement if the market provides some support at this level around 4400. This way, the short can run, and the long can run and risk can be set to net neutral. Trade ativo
Adding to my long positions as we reclaim $4000
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Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.