1. Fundamental Analysis:
a) Economy:
• USD:
The USD continues to weaken as the market prices in Fed rate cuts in 2026. The downward pressure on the dollar provides strong support for gold.
• U.S. Stocks:
U.S. equities edged higher on rate-cut expectations, but the gains are modest → cash flow is not fully risk-on, so gold maintains its safe-haven role.
• FED:
The Fed has signaled the end of its tightening cycle and opened the door to rate cuts starting in Q1/2026 → a strong medium-term catalyst for gold.
• TRUMP:
The Trump administration prioritizes increased defense spending, tax cuts, and tighter trade policies against China. This increases geopolitical risks → continues to support gold prices.
• Gold ETF – SPDR:
SPDR remains inactive, neither buying nor selling. During a long-term uptrend, the fact that SPDR is not selling is a positive signal.
b) Politics:
• Middle East tensions rising again.
• Russia–Ukraine conflict not cooling down.
• U.S.–China trade tensions may escalate.
• China–Japan tensions: Coast guard vessels from both countries repeatedly approach the Senkaku Islands. Japan is increasing military cooperation with the U.S., and China is responding strongly.
• The Trump administration is increasing pressure on Venezuela, threatening to re-impose heavy sanctions if no policy changes occur.
→ Geopolitical risks are rising, continuing to support gold prices.
c) Market Sentiment:
• Market sentiment is neutral–bullish.
• Geopolitical risks + Fed pivot expectations help maintain defensive cash flow.
2. Technical Analysis:
• Gold has broken out of the consolidation triangle and is retesting the previous resistance trendline → now acting as support.
• MA50 & MA20 are trending upward, indicating sustained bullish momentum.
• The 4,186 – 4,200 zone is an ideal retest area for price to rebound.
• Short-term targets: 4,274 → 4,300 → 4,380.
• Only if price breaks below 4,146 will the short-term trend weaken.
Overall technical view: Uptrend established – wait for retest to BUY safely.
RESISTANCE: 4,244 – 4,274 – 4,380
SUPPORT: 4,186 – 4,146 – 4,095
3. Previous Market Session (28/11/25):
• Gold traded in a narrow range, tested the upper trendline, and bounced back.
• No major movement due to lack of big news and SPDR staying inactive.
• Buyers maintain underlying support but not yet strong enough for a breakout.
• Price action mainly technical-driven.
4. Strategy for Today (01/12/25):
🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4277 – 4275
SL: 4281
TP1: 4269
TP2: 4263
🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4191 – 4193
SL: 4187
TP1: 4199
TP2: 4205
a) Economy:
• USD:
The USD continues to weaken as the market prices in Fed rate cuts in 2026. The downward pressure on the dollar provides strong support for gold.
• U.S. Stocks:
U.S. equities edged higher on rate-cut expectations, but the gains are modest → cash flow is not fully risk-on, so gold maintains its safe-haven role.
• FED:
The Fed has signaled the end of its tightening cycle and opened the door to rate cuts starting in Q1/2026 → a strong medium-term catalyst for gold.
• TRUMP:
The Trump administration prioritizes increased defense spending, tax cuts, and tighter trade policies against China. This increases geopolitical risks → continues to support gold prices.
• Gold ETF – SPDR:
SPDR remains inactive, neither buying nor selling. During a long-term uptrend, the fact that SPDR is not selling is a positive signal.
b) Politics:
• Middle East tensions rising again.
• Russia–Ukraine conflict not cooling down.
• U.S.–China trade tensions may escalate.
• China–Japan tensions: Coast guard vessels from both countries repeatedly approach the Senkaku Islands. Japan is increasing military cooperation with the U.S., and China is responding strongly.
• The Trump administration is increasing pressure on Venezuela, threatening to re-impose heavy sanctions if no policy changes occur.
→ Geopolitical risks are rising, continuing to support gold prices.
c) Market Sentiment:
• Market sentiment is neutral–bullish.
• Geopolitical risks + Fed pivot expectations help maintain defensive cash flow.
2. Technical Analysis:
• Gold has broken out of the consolidation triangle and is retesting the previous resistance trendline → now acting as support.
• MA50 & MA20 are trending upward, indicating sustained bullish momentum.
• The 4,186 – 4,200 zone is an ideal retest area for price to rebound.
• Short-term targets: 4,274 → 4,300 → 4,380.
• Only if price breaks below 4,146 will the short-term trend weaken.
Overall technical view: Uptrend established – wait for retest to BUY safely.
RESISTANCE: 4,244 – 4,274 – 4,380
SUPPORT: 4,186 – 4,146 – 4,095
3. Previous Market Session (28/11/25):
• Gold traded in a narrow range, tested the upper trendline, and bounced back.
• No major movement due to lack of big news and SPDR staying inactive.
• Buyers maintain underlying support but not yet strong enough for a breakout.
• Price action mainly technical-driven.
4. Strategy for Today (01/12/25):
🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4277 – 4275
SL: 4281
TP1: 4269
TP2: 4263
🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4191 – 4193
SL: 4187
TP1: 4199
TP2: 4205
Trade fechado: objetivo atingido
Signals BUY Close Full Hit TP2 + 120pips 🗡Nota
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As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.
📢 Sometimes signals appear on TradingView with a slight delay!
🚀 Join our Telegram channel to get instant updates and real-time scalping signals:
👉 t.me/+dXxWVQnU5IcwNmI1
🚀 Join our Telegram channel to get instant updates and real-time scalping signals:
👉 t.me/+dXxWVQnU5IcwNmI1
Publicações relacionadas
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.