The geopolitical situation in West Asia has entered a highly volatile phase, triggering high volatility in commodity and currency markets. Despite the drastic increase in the risk of a major war, the price of gold (XAU/USD) remains restrained by the strength of the US dollar, which acts as the primary global reserve asset.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Military Escalation: Hormuz Blockade & Riyadh Attack
The market is digesting a series of "Black Swan" events that have occurred in a short period of time:
🔸Closing the Strait of Hormuz: The IRGC Navy's effective announcement to completely close the world's most critical maritime route systematically threatens global energy supplies.
🔸US Embassy Attack: The drone attack that hit the US Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, marked an unprecedented escalation and directly drew deeper US involvement.
🔸US Ultimatum: Secretary of State Marco Rubio's statement regarding a "major escalation of attacks" on Iran in the next 24 hours, supported by President Trump's warning, suggests that all-out war is likely unavoidable.
💵 The US Dollar vs. Gold Dilemma
Usually, war tensions would send gold soaring unhindered. However, a "Dual Safe-Haven" phenomenon is currently occurring:
🔸USD as King: The US dollar's status as the global reserve currency has been strengthened by this crisis. Investors are not only buying gold but also hoarding dollars for liquidity.
🔸The Fed's Rhetoric: Reduced expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve keep US yields attractive, which technically limits the appeal of non-yielding gold.
🔸Psychological Levels: Gold is still struggling to break through and maintain above $5,400, which has served as very strong horizontal resistance since late January.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Gold XAU/USD Technical Analysis
⚡Market Structure: The primary trend remains bullish. We can see the formation of a recent Higher High (HH) after the price broke through the 5,260.00 level. A very clean Break of Structure (BOS) occurred to the upside, indicating that buying power remains very dominant.
⚡Price Action: After a very sharp (impulsive) price spike, the price is currently in a consolidation phase at the peak. The emergence of a supply area (upper gray box) in the range of 5,400.00 - 5,420.00 is currently preventing further upside.
⚡Volume Profile: There is a significant accumulation of volume around the 5,180.00 level (red line), indicating the previous price equilibrium level before the latest spike.
⚡Indicator (RSI): The RSI is at 51.50, indicating the price is in a neutral position after previously being in the overbought area. This provides room for the price to move technically without the burden of extreme overbought.
✅ Projected Movement Direction:
⚡Re-test Scenario (Pullback): The price will likely make a healthy correction first towards the previous demand area or BOS in the range of 5,240.00 - 5,260.00 before continuing its upward movement.
⚡Breakout Scenario: If the price breaks through and closes solidly above the 5,420.28 level, gold will seek a new, higher psychological level.
⚡Reversal Alert: If the price breaks through the last Higher Low below 5,139.97, this bullish structure will be declared invalid.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Military Escalation: Hormuz Blockade & Riyadh Attack
The market is digesting a series of "Black Swan" events that have occurred in a short period of time:
🔸Closing the Strait of Hormuz: The IRGC Navy's effective announcement to completely close the world's most critical maritime route systematically threatens global energy supplies.
🔸US Embassy Attack: The drone attack that hit the US Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, marked an unprecedented escalation and directly drew deeper US involvement.
🔸US Ultimatum: Secretary of State Marco Rubio's statement regarding a "major escalation of attacks" on Iran in the next 24 hours, supported by President Trump's warning, suggests that all-out war is likely unavoidable.
💵 The US Dollar vs. Gold Dilemma
Usually, war tensions would send gold soaring unhindered. However, a "Dual Safe-Haven" phenomenon is currently occurring:
🔸USD as King: The US dollar's status as the global reserve currency has been strengthened by this crisis. Investors are not only buying gold but also hoarding dollars for liquidity.
🔸The Fed's Rhetoric: Reduced expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve keep US yields attractive, which technically limits the appeal of non-yielding gold.
🔸Psychological Levels: Gold is still struggling to break through and maintain above $5,400, which has served as very strong horizontal resistance since late January.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Gold XAU/USD Technical Analysis
⚡Market Structure: The primary trend remains bullish. We can see the formation of a recent Higher High (HH) after the price broke through the 5,260.00 level. A very clean Break of Structure (BOS) occurred to the upside, indicating that buying power remains very dominant.
⚡Price Action: After a very sharp (impulsive) price spike, the price is currently in a consolidation phase at the peak. The emergence of a supply area (upper gray box) in the range of 5,400.00 - 5,420.00 is currently preventing further upside.
⚡Volume Profile: There is a significant accumulation of volume around the 5,180.00 level (red line), indicating the previous price equilibrium level before the latest spike.
⚡Indicator (RSI): The RSI is at 51.50, indicating the price is in a neutral position after previously being in the overbought area. This provides room for the price to move technically without the burden of extreme overbought.
✅ Projected Movement Direction:
⚡Re-test Scenario (Pullback): The price will likely make a healthy correction first towards the previous demand area or BOS in the range of 5,240.00 - 5,260.00 before continuing its upward movement.
⚡Breakout Scenario: If the price breaks through and closes solidly above the 5,420.28 level, gold will seek a new, higher psychological level.
⚡Reversal Alert: If the price breaks through the last Higher Low below 5,139.97, this bullish structure will be declared invalid.
Publicações relacionadas
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.
Publicações relacionadas
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.