XAU: RATE WEEK

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Hi, I’m Maicol, an Italian trader.
I study Gold since 2019.

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Please read the description to understand the trading plan.
Don’t focus only on the chart. Thanks.

🌞 GOOD MORNING EVERYONE 🌞

🪙 Gold price action

Good start of the week everyone.

We are still coming from a clear alignment:

WEEKLY: SHORT
DAILY: SHORT
H4: LONG

On Friday, as happens on many Fridays, price pushed higher trying to invalidate the last daily dominance zone. It failed to break it and ended up rejecting from that area.

However, H4 has flipped long, which remains a very solid timeframe on Gold.

My idea remains short until the interest rate decision on Wednesday the 29th.

The levels remain the same as Friday’s idea.

Watch carefully the open gap zone, which was broken immediately and could now be used as support for a push higher.

It would be ideal to see price move back below that zone again.

For now, I’m waiting for the afternoon session, but it’s still Monday, so I’m unlikely to take positions early.

Let’s see how the day develops.

GOLD MACRO NEWS

Gold remains stuck in a consolidation phase, with no clean or clear trend.

As expected and explained last week, the recent extension of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon provided only temporary relief. The main risk remains unresolved: US-Iran tensions and the possible impact on the Strait of Hormuz.

Key Points

-The ceasefire is only temporary relief, not a real solution.

-Oil remains elevated (around $100+) and continues to support inflation pressures.

-US 2-year yields are holding around 3.8%, meaning no real relief in real rates.

-The USD remains stable, so there is no broad flight to safety.

-Gold continues to trade sideways.
What is the market pricing in?

Right now, the market is not treating Middle East risk as a bullish catalyst for Gold.

It is pricing it like this:

Higher Oil → Inflation fears → Higher Yields → Higher-for-longer Rates

So the focus is on inflation risk and energy supply concerns, not on a rush into safe haven assets.

Current Bias

Bearish / Sell rallies

Gold is currently being treated more as a macro asset to sell, rather than a classic safe haven to buy.

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📬 If you have any doubts or questions, feel free to message me. I’ll be happy to reply.

🔍 Reminder 🔍
I avoid trading during the Asian and London sessions, focusing instead on the 14:30 news releases and the New York open at 15:30.

In the meantime, I wish you all a great day.

-GOOD TRADING
-MANAGE RISK
-BE PATIENT

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