Gold showed a muted reaction after yesterday’s U.S. CPI release, as inflation data came in exactly in line with expectations.
Core CPI m/m printed 0.2%, CPI m/m 0.3%, and CPI y/y 2.4%, matching forecasts. Because the market had largely priced in this outcome, the release did not trigger a strong bullish reaction in gold.
Instead, price rotated lower after the announcement, suggesting the CPI event may have acted as a liquidity catalyst rather than a bullish driver.
When major data meets expectations, markets often shift focus back to technical structure and liquidity zones.
Macro Narrative
Several macro factors influenced gold after the CPI release:
• CPI data came in line with forecasts, reducing surprise volatility
• Markets had already priced the inflation outcome beforehand
• USD remained relatively stable after the data
• Profit-taking triggered a short-term pullback in gold
In many cases, when economic data meets expectations, markets move toward nearby liquidity zones before the next directional move.
Technical Overview (H1)
From a structural perspective on the H1 chart:
• Gold previously formed a weak high near the recent top
• A Change of Character (CHOCH) signaled potential structure shift
• Price then printed a Bearish Break of Structure (BOS)
• The market is now reacting near the 5128 demand zone
This structure suggests that the recent rally may be entering a distribution phase, with liquidity resting below current price.
Key Levels
🟡 Reaction Zone: 5128
⚠️ Intermediate Liquidity: 5064
🎯 Major Liquidity Target: 5015
🔴 Weak High: 5240 area
Holding below the recent structure keeps downside pressure intact.
Scenario 1 — Bearish
If gold fails to reclaim the broken structure, price may continue rotating lower toward deeper liquidity.
Potential path:
5128 → 5064 → 5015
Markets often seek lower liquidity after a bearish structure shift.
Scenario 2 — Bullish
If buyers defend the demand zone and reclaim structure, gold may attempt another push higher.
Potential path:
5128 hold → 5180 → retest highs
This would suggest the recent move lower was only a temporary liquidity sweep.
Market Debate
CPI delivered no surprise, yet gold still moved lower.
This often signals that liquidity positioning is driving the market more than the news itself.
So the key question now is:
Is gold preparing for a deeper liquidity sweep toward 5015…
or will buyers defend 5128 demand and push price higher again?
Core CPI m/m printed 0.2%, CPI m/m 0.3%, and CPI y/y 2.4%, matching forecasts. Because the market had largely priced in this outcome, the release did not trigger a strong bullish reaction in gold.
Instead, price rotated lower after the announcement, suggesting the CPI event may have acted as a liquidity catalyst rather than a bullish driver.
When major data meets expectations, markets often shift focus back to technical structure and liquidity zones.
Macro Narrative
Several macro factors influenced gold after the CPI release:
• CPI data came in line with forecasts, reducing surprise volatility
• Markets had already priced the inflation outcome beforehand
• USD remained relatively stable after the data
• Profit-taking triggered a short-term pullback in gold
In many cases, when economic data meets expectations, markets move toward nearby liquidity zones before the next directional move.
Technical Overview (H1)
From a structural perspective on the H1 chart:
• Gold previously formed a weak high near the recent top
• A Change of Character (CHOCH) signaled potential structure shift
• Price then printed a Bearish Break of Structure (BOS)
• The market is now reacting near the 5128 demand zone
This structure suggests that the recent rally may be entering a distribution phase, with liquidity resting below current price.
Key Levels
🟡 Reaction Zone: 5128
⚠️ Intermediate Liquidity: 5064
🎯 Major Liquidity Target: 5015
🔴 Weak High: 5240 area
Holding below the recent structure keeps downside pressure intact.
Scenario 1 — Bearish
If gold fails to reclaim the broken structure, price may continue rotating lower toward deeper liquidity.
Potential path:
5128 → 5064 → 5015
Markets often seek lower liquidity after a bearish structure shift.
Scenario 2 — Bullish
If buyers defend the demand zone and reclaim structure, gold may attempt another push higher.
Potential path:
5128 hold → 5180 → retest highs
This would suggest the recent move lower was only a temporary liquidity sweep.
Market Debate
CPI delivered no surprise, yet gold still moved lower.
This often signals that liquidity positioning is driving the market more than the news itself.
So the key question now is:
Is gold preparing for a deeper liquidity sweep toward 5015…
or will buyers defend 5128 demand and push price higher again?
Trade ativo
GOLD RUN 1300PIP - Following news of a decrease in unemployment rates, tensions in Hormuz have increased.
Trade fechado: objetivo atingido
Gold prices fall sharply after news of job opening.
Nota
GOOD LUCK TRADER- CONTINUE WAITING FOR THE GAP ON DAY 2
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Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.