XAUUSD remains trapped within the 4022–4116 trading range as markets await the next major economic catalysts. From a technical perspective, however, the broader bearish trend continues to dominateThe U.S. dollar has weakened following renewed strength in the Japanese yen, driven by intervention efforts. Despite this, gold has shown only a muted response to the decline in the DXY. Fundamentally, the metal remains under pressure, with the market still favoring a move toward the 4000–3975 area.
The fundamental backdrop remains challenging for gold. The Federal Reserve is facing an unusually deep policy divide, with three members favoring another rate hike, uncertainty surrounding Governor Waller's outlook, weaker U.S. macroeconomic data (GDP at 1.5%, PCE easing to 3.3%), and renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Higher oil prices continue to reinforce inflation concerns and support a more hawkish Fed outlook.
Technically, gold has rejected resistance and is now testing the key 4022 support level. The weak buying response suggests limited bullish momentum, increasing the probability of a downside breakout toward 4000–3950
Resistance levels: 4070, 4083, 4116
Support levels: 4022, 3996, 3973
Before the broader decline resumes, the market may first retest the 4070–4083 resistance zone from the session open. The 4116 level also remains a key area to watch. A short squeeze into these resistance levels could provide the catalyst for another bearish reversal toward 4000.
Best regards,
R. Linda
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