Gold initially surged after softer U.S. inflation data, but buyers are now facing a critical test beneath a major descending trendline resistance.
📊 Economic Update
Yesterday's PPI data came in softer than market expectations, reinforcing the narrative that inflation pressures continue to cool.
PPI m/m: Lower than forecast
Core PPI: Softer than expected
Jobless Claims: Slightly higher
This combination weakened the USD and Treasury yields during the initial reaction, allowing Gold to stage a sharp relief rally from the weekly lows.
However, the market is now entering the second phase: Can buyers sustain momentum, or was this simply a liquidity-driven short squeeze?
Technical Analysis (H1)
The broader structure remains bearish despite the recent recovery.
Price exploded from the 4,080 demand zone and swept short-side liquidity before reaching the descending trendline and supply area around 4,230.
The current reaction suggests buyers are losing momentum beneath resistance.
Key Levels
🔹 Resistance Zone: 4,230
🔹 Pivot Resistance: 4,170
🔹 Intraday Support: 4,131
🔹 Demand / Liquidity Zone: 4,080
IF–THEN Scenario
✅ Bullish Case
If Gold breaks and closes above 4,230, the recovery structure strengthens and buyers could target higher discount-to-premium rebalancing zones.
❌ Bearish Case (Preferred)
If price remains below the trendline and fails to reclaim 4,230, sellers may re-enter aggressively.
A rejection below 4,170 would expose 4,131 first, followed by a potential liquidity sweep back into the 4,080 demand zone.
📊 Economic Update
Yesterday's PPI data came in softer than market expectations, reinforcing the narrative that inflation pressures continue to cool.
PPI m/m: Lower than forecast
Core PPI: Softer than expected
Jobless Claims: Slightly higher
This combination weakened the USD and Treasury yields during the initial reaction, allowing Gold to stage a sharp relief rally from the weekly lows.
However, the market is now entering the second phase: Can buyers sustain momentum, or was this simply a liquidity-driven short squeeze?
Technical Analysis (H1)
The broader structure remains bearish despite the recent recovery.
Price exploded from the 4,080 demand zone and swept short-side liquidity before reaching the descending trendline and supply area around 4,230.
The current reaction suggests buyers are losing momentum beneath resistance.
Key Levels
🔹 Resistance Zone: 4,230
🔹 Pivot Resistance: 4,170
🔹 Intraday Support: 4,131
🔹 Demand / Liquidity Zone: 4,080
IF–THEN Scenario
✅ Bullish Case
If Gold breaks and closes above 4,230, the recovery structure strengthens and buyers could target higher discount-to-premium rebalancing zones.
❌ Bearish Case (Preferred)
If price remains below the trendline and fails to reclaim 4,230, sellers may re-enter aggressively.
A rejection below 4,170 would expose 4,131 first, followed by a potential liquidity sweep back into the 4,080 demand zone.
Nota
Gold is sideways within the 4245 and 4171 range. Pay attention to weekend news; the price will break strongly on Monday. Wait for a retest before taking a safe position.
Trade ativo
The price touched the resistance zone twice and then fell both times. Note that if it breaks this zone a third time, the plan will be cancelled.
Trade fechado manualmente
The price has broken out of the range above 4245 and reached the 432x zone; the latest plan will be updated below.
Market Structure • Liquidity • Smart Money Concepts
Daily Gold Outlooks | Educational Content | Trading Insights
Daily Gold Outlooks | Educational Content | Trading Insights
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.
Market Structure • Liquidity • Smart Money Concepts
Daily Gold Outlooks | Educational Content | Trading Insights
Daily Gold Outlooks | Educational Content | Trading Insights
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.