1. Market Overview
Gold recovered strongly from 3,918 lows, printing a clean bullish reversal overnight during Asia, now trading near 3,990–3,998.
The market structure has shifted short-term bullish after a clear CHoCH and BOS, but price is testing heavy resistance at the psychological 4,000 level and the H1 supply zone (3,995–4,013).
London session opens at a decisive point — momentum favors buyers, but a rejection at 4,000–4,013 could trigger a short-term pullback before continuation.
⸻
2. Technical Breakdown
🔹 Daily (D1):
• Price bounced from 3,918 forming a bullish rejection candle.
• RSI turning upward near 50, showing recovery strength.
• Long-term uptrend intact above the 100 EMA (3,842) but short-term correction not complete.
✅ Bias: Neutral to bullish while above 3,918.
🔹 H1:
• Market showing a confirmed CHoCH above 3,965 with bullish momentum candles.
• Currently retesting the descending trendline and 200 EMA (4,000–4,013) zone.
• RSI near 58, MACD histogram positive but slowing — possible short-term exhaustion.
⚠️ Bias: Bullish but watch for rejection at 4,000–4,013.
🔹 15M–5M:
• Clear bullish wave with strong EMA alignment (8 > 20 > 50).
• Structure forming higher highs and higher lows.
• Minor divergence appearing near 3,998, indicating potential retracement to 3,965–3,955.
🎯 View: Buy pullbacks into key retracement zones.
⸻
3. Fibonacci Analysis (Swing 3,918 → 3,998)
• 38.2% = 3,972.6
• 50.0% = 3,958.6
• 61.8% = 3,945.0
🟩 Fibonacci Golden Zone: 3,958 – 3,945
Confluence: prior H1 resistance turned support + trendline retest zone.
⸻
4. High-Probability Trade Scenarios
🟩 Bullish Scenario (Primary Bias)
• Buy Zone: 3,972 → 3,958 (Golden Zone)
• Confirmation: Bullish engulfing or CHoCH on 5M
• Targets: 3,991 → 4,004 → 4,013 → 4,030
• Stop Loss: Below 3,945
• Notes: Structure remains bullish as long as 3,945 holds.
🟥 Bearish Rejection (Countertrend)
• Sell Zone: 4,004 – 4,013 (H1 Supply + EMA Confluence)
• Confirmation: Rejection candle / Bearish divergence
• Targets: 3,974 → 3,959 → 3,945
• Stop Loss: Above 4,020
⚡ Breakout Setup
• Buy Breakout: Above 4,013 (retest holds) → Target 4,030 → 4,070
• Sell Breakout: Below 3,945 → Target 3,918 → 3,904
⸻
5. Fundamental Watch
• No major UK data early; focus remains on USD Index (DXY 106.2).
• US 10-year yields stabilizing; if yields drop, gold could push above 4,000.
• Market sentiment cautiously bullish ahead of mid-week U.S. news.
⸻
6. Key Technical Levels
Type Levels (USD)
Resistance 3,998 / 4,004 / 4,013 / 4,030 / 4,074
Support 3,972 / 3,958 / 3,945 / 3,918
Golden Zone 3,958 – 3,945
Break Buy Trigger > 4,013
Break Sell Trigger < 3,945
⸻
7. Analyst Summary
Gold shows strong intraday bullish momentum but faces resistance at 4,000–4,013.
If London retraces to 3,972–3,958, this area becomes the Golden Opportunity Zone for continuation buys.
A breakout above 4,013 confirms trend reversal to 4,030–4,074.
Failure to hold 3,945 will re-expose 3,918 lows.
⸻
8. Final Bias Summary
Main Bias: Bullish
Secondary Bias: Short-term sell at 4,013 only if strong rejection
Golden Zone (Buy): 3,958 – 3,945
Breaking Price: Above 4,013 for buys / Below 3,945 for sells
London Outlook: Expect minor dip, then bullish continuation if support holds.
Gold recovered strongly from 3,918 lows, printing a clean bullish reversal overnight during Asia, now trading near 3,990–3,998.
The market structure has shifted short-term bullish after a clear CHoCH and BOS, but price is testing heavy resistance at the psychological 4,000 level and the H1 supply zone (3,995–4,013).
London session opens at a decisive point — momentum favors buyers, but a rejection at 4,000–4,013 could trigger a short-term pullback before continuation.
⸻
2. Technical Breakdown
🔹 Daily (D1):
• Price bounced from 3,918 forming a bullish rejection candle.
• RSI turning upward near 50, showing recovery strength.
• Long-term uptrend intact above the 100 EMA (3,842) but short-term correction not complete.
✅ Bias: Neutral to bullish while above 3,918.
🔹 H1:
• Market showing a confirmed CHoCH above 3,965 with bullish momentum candles.
• Currently retesting the descending trendline and 200 EMA (4,000–4,013) zone.
• RSI near 58, MACD histogram positive but slowing — possible short-term exhaustion.
⚠️ Bias: Bullish but watch for rejection at 4,000–4,013.
🔹 15M–5M:
• Clear bullish wave with strong EMA alignment (8 > 20 > 50).
• Structure forming higher highs and higher lows.
• Minor divergence appearing near 3,998, indicating potential retracement to 3,965–3,955.
🎯 View: Buy pullbacks into key retracement zones.
⸻
3. Fibonacci Analysis (Swing 3,918 → 3,998)
• 38.2% = 3,972.6
• 50.0% = 3,958.6
• 61.8% = 3,945.0
🟩 Fibonacci Golden Zone: 3,958 – 3,945
Confluence: prior H1 resistance turned support + trendline retest zone.
⸻
4. High-Probability Trade Scenarios
🟩 Bullish Scenario (Primary Bias)
• Buy Zone: 3,972 → 3,958 (Golden Zone)
• Confirmation: Bullish engulfing or CHoCH on 5M
• Targets: 3,991 → 4,004 → 4,013 → 4,030
• Stop Loss: Below 3,945
• Notes: Structure remains bullish as long as 3,945 holds.
🟥 Bearish Rejection (Countertrend)
• Sell Zone: 4,004 – 4,013 (H1 Supply + EMA Confluence)
• Confirmation: Rejection candle / Bearish divergence
• Targets: 3,974 → 3,959 → 3,945
• Stop Loss: Above 4,020
⚡ Breakout Setup
• Buy Breakout: Above 4,013 (retest holds) → Target 4,030 → 4,070
• Sell Breakout: Below 3,945 → Target 3,918 → 3,904
⸻
5. Fundamental Watch
• No major UK data early; focus remains on USD Index (DXY 106.2).
• US 10-year yields stabilizing; if yields drop, gold could push above 4,000.
• Market sentiment cautiously bullish ahead of mid-week U.S. news.
⸻
6. Key Technical Levels
Type Levels (USD)
Resistance 3,998 / 4,004 / 4,013 / 4,030 / 4,074
Support 3,972 / 3,958 / 3,945 / 3,918
Golden Zone 3,958 – 3,945
Break Buy Trigger > 4,013
Break Sell Trigger < 3,945
⸻
7. Analyst Summary
Gold shows strong intraday bullish momentum but faces resistance at 4,000–4,013.
If London retraces to 3,972–3,958, this area becomes the Golden Opportunity Zone for continuation buys.
A breakout above 4,013 confirms trend reversal to 4,030–4,074.
Failure to hold 3,945 will re-expose 3,918 lows.
⸻
8. Final Bias Summary
Main Bias: Bullish
Secondary Bias: Short-term sell at 4,013 only if strong rejection
Golden Zone (Buy): 3,958 – 3,945
Breaking Price: Above 4,013 for buys / Below 3,945 for sells
London Outlook: Expect minor dip, then bullish continuation if support holds.
— ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 Team 🚀
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.
— ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 Team 🚀
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.