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Kurdistani Style Cycle
Kurdistani Style Cycle
A composite on-chain indicator that identifies Bitcoin market cycle phases
using a weighted Z-score of MVRV, NUPL, and a SOPR proxy. It maps market
conditions into five distinct phases and overlays normalized BTC price.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
KEY ON‑CHAIN METRICS USED
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
1. MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value)
MVRV = Market Cap / Realized Cap
- High values: large unrealized profit, possible market tops.
- Low values: large unrealized loss, possible market bottoms.
2. NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
NUPL = 1 – (1 / MVRV) (derived from MVRV to ensure consistency)
- Strongly positive (e.g., >0.75): euphoria / overheated.
- Negative: fear, potential bottoming zone.
3. SOPR Proxy
Since real SOPR requires UTXO data unavailable on TradingView, a proxy
is built from price position relative to short-term and long-term
highest/lowest bands:
Short-term position (STH):
STH_pos = (Price – STH_low) / (STH_high – STH_low) (range 0–1)
Long-term position (LTH):
LTH_pos = (Price – LTH_low) / (LTH_high – LTH_low) (range 0–1)
Raw SOPR Proxy = STH_pos – LTH_pos
Smoothed SOPR Proxy = 5-period SMA of Raw SOPR Proxy
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
HOW THE COMPOSITE INDEX IS BUILT
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
Step 1 – Z-Score Normalization
For each component (MVRV, NUPL, SOPR Proxy) a Z-score is calculated
with a common lookback period L (default 365):
Z = (Value – SMA(Value, L)) / StdDev(Value, L)
Step 2 – Weighted Combination (PnL Index)
User-defined weights w1, w2, w3 (default 0.4, 0.4, 0.2).
If the fraction of non‑null components meets or exceeds the
'Min Valid Weight Fraction' threshold, the PnL Index is:
PnL Index = (w1 * MVRV_Z + w2 * NUPL_Z + w3 * SOPR_Z) / (w1 + w2 + w3)
Step 3 – Bull‑Bear Indicator
The final oscillator removes the long-term trend using a simple moving
average (default length 365):
Bull‑Bear = PnL Index – SMA(PnL Index, 365)
Positive values indicate a bullish regime relative to the long-term average,
negative values indicate a bearish regime.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
PHASES – THRESHOLDS & INTERPRETATION
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
The Bull‑Bear value is classified into five phases using two thresholds:
Overheated Threshold (default +1.5)
Early Bull Upper Limit (default +0.5)
Extreme Bear Threshold (default -1.5)
Phase Condition Interpretation
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Extreme Bear Bull‑Bear ≤ -1.5 Possible deep bottom, extreme fear
Bear -1.5 < Bull‑Bear ≤ 0 Downtrend / consolidation
Early Bull 0 < Bull‑Bear ≤ 0.5 First signs of recovery
Bull 0.5 < Bull‑Bear ≤ 1.5 Healthy uptrend
Overheated Bull Bull‑Bear > 1.5 Euphoria, high risk of correction
Colors on the histogram:
Extreme Bear → solid blue
Bear → cyan / teal
Early Bull → green
Bull → orange
Overheated Bull → red
No data → transparent gray
Small markers:
A green dot above Early Bull columns
A red dot below Overheated Bull columns
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
WHAT YOU SEE ON THE CHART
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
• Gray line: the Bull‑Bear oscillator value.
• Colored columns: histogram displaying the current phase.
• Green horizontal line at zero (neutral boundary).
• Red dotted line at the Overheated Threshold (+1.5).
• Blue dotted line at the Extreme Bear Threshold (-1.5).
• Light gray/white line (optional): Z‑score of log(BTC price)
over the same lookback period, showing how far current price
deviates from its long‑term log mean.
• Information table (top‑right): shows live readings for Phase,
Bull‑Bear value, MVRV, NUPL, SOPR Proxy, BTC price, normalized
price Z‑score, and the composite PnL Index (Z).
• A star (*) next to a metric name and an orange warning dot
indicates stale (non‑updating) data, typically on intraday
timeframes where on‑chain data is not refreshed in real time.
A label on the last bar displays the current phase name.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
INPUT SETTINGS (fully adjustable)
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
- MA Length for Cycle (default 365): moving average length
used to extract the cycle from the PnL Index. Shorter
values increase responsiveness but add noise.
- Z‑Score Lookback (default 365): lookback for mean and
standard deviation when normalizing MVRV, NUPL, and SOPR.
- Overheated Bull Threshold (Z) (default 1.5): Z‑score level
that triggers the Overheated phase.
- Early Bull Upper Limit (Z) (default 0.5): upper bound of
the Early Bull phase; crossing above enters the Bull phase.
- Extreme Bear Threshold (Z) (default -1.5): lower bound for
the Extreme Bear phase.
- STH Lookback (default 155): period for short‑term high/low
in the SOPR proxy calculation.
- LTH Lookback (default 365): period for long‑term high/low
in the SOPR proxy calculation.
- MVRV Weight (default 0.4)
- NUPL Weight (default 0.4)
- SOPR Weight (default 0.2)
- Min Valid Weight Fraction (default 0.5): minimum fraction
of total weight that must have valid (non‑null) data for the
composite index to be calculated. Prevents unreliable signals
when one or more components are missing.
- Show Normalized BTC Price Overlay (true/false)
- Price Symbol (default BINANCE:BTCUSDT)
- Price Normalization Lookback (default 365)
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
DATA SOURCES & STALENESS
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
• BTC_MARKETCAP (Market Cap) and BTC_MARKETCAPREAL (Realized
Cap) are fetched via request.security from TradingView’s
internal symbols.
• Price is fetched from the user‑selected symbol (default
BINANCE:BTCUSDT).
• On intraday timeframes (less than 1D), on‑chain data often
does not update on every bar. In those cases a star (*)
appears next to the metric and an orange dot is plotted.
Daily or higher timeframes are recommended for the cleanest
signals.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
PRACTICAL USAGE GUIDE
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
- Accumulation / long‑term entries: Extreme Bear (blue columns)
often marks excellent long‑term buying zones.
- Confirmed trend change: Entering Early Bull (green columns)
after a bear phase provides a higher‑probability entry once
momentum turns positive.
- Holding during uptrend: Bull phase (orange) represents a
healthy market. Consider moving stop‑losses higher but
avoid premature exits.
- Taking profits / reducing exposure: Overheated Bull (red
columns) signals that the market is statistically stretched.
A phased exit or partial sell strategy is prudent.
- The normalized price overlay provides a second opinion: when
both the Bull‑Bear indicator and price Z‑score reach
simultaneous extremes, the signal is stronger.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
LIMITATIONS
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
• The SOPR component is a proxy and not real SOPR data.
• On lower timeframes, stale data may cause slight lag.
• In long sideways markets the oscillator may whipsaw
between Bear and Early Bull. Always combine with other
technical or fundamental analysis.
• This indicator is not financial advice. Past performance
does not guarantee future results.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
HOW TO INSTALL
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
Add the indicator to your chart from TradingView’s “Indicators”
panel. It will appear in a separate pane below the price chart.
Adjust the settings via the gear icon to fit your own cycle
analysis framework.
A composite on-chain indicator that identifies Bitcoin market cycle phases
using a weighted Z-score of MVRV, NUPL, and a SOPR proxy. It maps market
conditions into five distinct phases and overlays normalized BTC price.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
KEY ON‑CHAIN METRICS USED
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
1. MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value)
MVRV = Market Cap / Realized Cap
- High values: large unrealized profit, possible market tops.
- Low values: large unrealized loss, possible market bottoms.
2. NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
NUPL = 1 – (1 / MVRV) (derived from MVRV to ensure consistency)
- Strongly positive (e.g., >0.75): euphoria / overheated.
- Negative: fear, potential bottoming zone.
3. SOPR Proxy
Since real SOPR requires UTXO data unavailable on TradingView, a proxy
is built from price position relative to short-term and long-term
highest/lowest bands:
Short-term position (STH):
STH_pos = (Price – STH_low) / (STH_high – STH_low) (range 0–1)
Long-term position (LTH):
LTH_pos = (Price – LTH_low) / (LTH_high – LTH_low) (range 0–1)
Raw SOPR Proxy = STH_pos – LTH_pos
Smoothed SOPR Proxy = 5-period SMA of Raw SOPR Proxy
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
HOW THE COMPOSITE INDEX IS BUILT
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
Step 1 – Z-Score Normalization
For each component (MVRV, NUPL, SOPR Proxy) a Z-score is calculated
with a common lookback period L (default 365):
Z = (Value – SMA(Value, L)) / StdDev(Value, L)
Step 2 – Weighted Combination (PnL Index)
User-defined weights w1, w2, w3 (default 0.4, 0.4, 0.2).
If the fraction of non‑null components meets or exceeds the
'Min Valid Weight Fraction' threshold, the PnL Index is:
PnL Index = (w1 * MVRV_Z + w2 * NUPL_Z + w3 * SOPR_Z) / (w1 + w2 + w3)
Step 3 – Bull‑Bear Indicator
The final oscillator removes the long-term trend using a simple moving
average (default length 365):
Bull‑Bear = PnL Index – SMA(PnL Index, 365)
Positive values indicate a bullish regime relative to the long-term average,
negative values indicate a bearish regime.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
PHASES – THRESHOLDS & INTERPRETATION
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
The Bull‑Bear value is classified into five phases using two thresholds:
Overheated Threshold (default +1.5)
Early Bull Upper Limit (default +0.5)
Extreme Bear Threshold (default -1.5)
Phase Condition Interpretation
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Extreme Bear Bull‑Bear ≤ -1.5 Possible deep bottom, extreme fear
Bear -1.5 < Bull‑Bear ≤ 0 Downtrend / consolidation
Early Bull 0 < Bull‑Bear ≤ 0.5 First signs of recovery
Bull 0.5 < Bull‑Bear ≤ 1.5 Healthy uptrend
Overheated Bull Bull‑Bear > 1.5 Euphoria, high risk of correction
Colors on the histogram:
Extreme Bear → solid blue
Bear → cyan / teal
Early Bull → green
Bull → orange
Overheated Bull → red
No data → transparent gray
Small markers:
A green dot above Early Bull columns
A red dot below Overheated Bull columns
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
WHAT YOU SEE ON THE CHART
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
• Gray line: the Bull‑Bear oscillator value.
• Colored columns: histogram displaying the current phase.
• Green horizontal line at zero (neutral boundary).
• Red dotted line at the Overheated Threshold (+1.5).
• Blue dotted line at the Extreme Bear Threshold (-1.5).
• Light gray/white line (optional): Z‑score of log(BTC price)
over the same lookback period, showing how far current price
deviates from its long‑term log mean.
• Information table (top‑right): shows live readings for Phase,
Bull‑Bear value, MVRV, NUPL, SOPR Proxy, BTC price, normalized
price Z‑score, and the composite PnL Index (Z).
• A star (*) next to a metric name and an orange warning dot
indicates stale (non‑updating) data, typically on intraday
timeframes where on‑chain data is not refreshed in real time.
A label on the last bar displays the current phase name.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
INPUT SETTINGS (fully adjustable)
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
- MA Length for Cycle (default 365): moving average length
used to extract the cycle from the PnL Index. Shorter
values increase responsiveness but add noise.
- Z‑Score Lookback (default 365): lookback for mean and
standard deviation when normalizing MVRV, NUPL, and SOPR.
- Overheated Bull Threshold (Z) (default 1.5): Z‑score level
that triggers the Overheated phase.
- Early Bull Upper Limit (Z) (default 0.5): upper bound of
the Early Bull phase; crossing above enters the Bull phase.
- Extreme Bear Threshold (Z) (default -1.5): lower bound for
the Extreme Bear phase.
- STH Lookback (default 155): period for short‑term high/low
in the SOPR proxy calculation.
- LTH Lookback (default 365): period for long‑term high/low
in the SOPR proxy calculation.
- MVRV Weight (default 0.4)
- NUPL Weight (default 0.4)
- SOPR Weight (default 0.2)
- Min Valid Weight Fraction (default 0.5): minimum fraction
of total weight that must have valid (non‑null) data for the
composite index to be calculated. Prevents unreliable signals
when one or more components are missing.
- Show Normalized BTC Price Overlay (true/false)
- Price Symbol (default BINANCE:BTCUSDT)
- Price Normalization Lookback (default 365)
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
DATA SOURCES & STALENESS
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
• BTC_MARKETCAP (Market Cap) and BTC_MARKETCAPREAL (Realized
Cap) are fetched via request.security from TradingView’s
internal symbols.
• Price is fetched from the user‑selected symbol (default
BINANCE:BTCUSDT).
• On intraday timeframes (less than 1D), on‑chain data often
does not update on every bar. In those cases a star (*)
appears next to the metric and an orange dot is plotted.
Daily or higher timeframes are recommended for the cleanest
signals.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
PRACTICAL USAGE GUIDE
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
- Accumulation / long‑term entries: Extreme Bear (blue columns)
often marks excellent long‑term buying zones.
- Confirmed trend change: Entering Early Bull (green columns)
after a bear phase provides a higher‑probability entry once
momentum turns positive.
- Holding during uptrend: Bull phase (orange) represents a
healthy market. Consider moving stop‑losses higher but
avoid premature exits.
- Taking profits / reducing exposure: Overheated Bull (red
columns) signals that the market is statistically stretched.
A phased exit or partial sell strategy is prudent.
- The normalized price overlay provides a second opinion: when
both the Bull‑Bear indicator and price Z‑score reach
simultaneous extremes, the signal is stronger.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
LIMITATIONS
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
• The SOPR component is a proxy and not real SOPR data.
• On lower timeframes, stale data may cause slight lag.
• In long sideways markets the oscillator may whipsaw
between Bear and Early Bull. Always combine with other
technical or fundamental analysis.
• This indicator is not financial advice. Past performance
does not guarantee future results.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
HOW TO INSTALL
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
Add the indicator to your chart from TradingView’s “Indicators”
panel. It will appear in a separate pane below the price chart.
Adjust the settings via the gear icon to fit your own cycle
analysis framework.
Script de código aberto
Em verdadeiro espírito do TradingView, o criador deste script o tornou de código aberto, para que os traders possam revisar e verificar sua funcionalidade. Parabéns ao autor! Embora você possa usá-lo gratuitamente, lembre-se de que a republicação do código está sujeita às nossas Regras da Casa.
______________________________________
I am Omid Dabagchi Makri, an artificial intelligence and computer software engineer, I have been working in the field of market analysis especially in the field of digital currencies for many years.
Entekhab.Net
I am Omid Dabagchi Makri, an artificial intelligence and computer software engineer, I have been working in the field of market analysis especially in the field of digital currencies for many years.
Entekhab.Net
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.
Script de código aberto
Em verdadeiro espírito do TradingView, o criador deste script o tornou de código aberto, para que os traders possam revisar e verificar sua funcionalidade. Parabéns ao autor! Embora você possa usá-lo gratuitamente, lembre-se de que a republicação do código está sujeita às nossas Regras da Casa.
______________________________________
I am Omid Dabagchi Makri, an artificial intelligence and computer software engineer, I have been working in the field of market analysis especially in the field of digital currencies for many years.
Entekhab.Net
I am Omid Dabagchi Makri, an artificial intelligence and computer software engineer, I have been working in the field of market analysis especially in the field of digital currencies for many years.
Entekhab.Net
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.