OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Simple Moving Average X Risk
ZIZO ⬡ Risk SMA
The 200-day SMA, painted with the ZIZO risk engine. Trend and valuation in a single line — no second pane required.
Hard money. Don't trust. Verify.
──────────────────────────────
WHAT IT DOES
A moving average tells you where the trend is. It says nothing about whether that trend is cheap or expensive. This overlay adds the missing half.
It plots a standard SMA (200 by default) directly on your price chart, then colours that line by the same risk model that drives the ZIZO Risk pane. Cold blue means low risk — the baseline is sitting deep in the value band. Hot red means high risk — it's stretched toward the top. You read the trend and its risk in one glance, without opening a separate oscillator.
The colour engine is the ZIZO Risk v3.9 engine, verbatim. Same bounds, same colormap, same numbers. If the risk pane says 42, this line paints the 0.4 band. Parity is the whole point — verify it side by side.
──────────────────────────────
HOW THE RISK IS MEASURED
Risk here is a position, not a probability. It answers one question: where does the price sit between a lower bound and an upper bound, measured in log space?
• 0 means price is resting on the lower bound.
• 100 means price is pressed against the upper bound.
• 50 means it's halfway between, on a log scale.
The bounds are built from the SMA baseline and a time-scaling factor. The factor lets the bands drift as the series ages — a deliberate model assumption that fair-value ranges compress over a long history rather than staying fixed forever. You control that drift with the Decay and Sensitivity inputs. If you reject the assumption, flatten them.
Because the metric lives in log space, it behaves the way a log price chart does. That is intentional and consistent across the whole ZIZO suite.
──────────────────────────────
TWO COLOUR SOURCES
The line drawn is always the SMA. What you colour it by is your choice:
• Smoothed Risk (default) — the risk of the SMA itself. Calmer. This is the line that matches the smoothed track in the risk pane.
• Relative Risk — the risk of spot price. Jumpier, more reactive. Use it when you want the SMA to carry the live temperature of price rather than its own.
The info table shows both readings at once, each on its own colour swatch, so you never have to guess which is which. Table text auto-contrasts — black on bright swatches, white on dark — so it stays legible in every band.
──────────────────────────────
MULTI-TIMEFRAME
Set the risk timeframe to Daily, Weekly, Monthly, or follow the chart. The SMA and its risk are computed on that timeframe and pulled onto your chart, so you can run a true daily-risk SMA while viewing any resolution.
──────────────────────────────
ALERT
One alert: band change. It fires when the coloured line crosses from one risk band into the next — a regime shift of one decile. Quiet when nothing has changed, loud when the temperature moves.
──────────────────────────────
INPUTS WORTH KNOWING
• SMA length and line width.
• Colour source — Smoothed or Relative.
• Risk engine controls — Time offset, Decay, Sensitivity, Baseline control, Upper/Lower bound.
• Lowerbound is dynamic — leave this off (recommended). The lower bound holds steadier that way.
• Timeframe, info table position and size.
──────────────────────────────
HONEST NOTES
This is not a new model. It is the ZIZO Risk engine wearing a different coat. Every value it prints should match the risk pane to the decimal — if it ever doesn't, trust neither until you find out why.
The bounds ship calibrated for BTC. Point it at another asset and the numbers become meaningless until you recalibrate. Do the work, or don't trust the colour.
Risk is a position between two bounds, not a forecast. A reading of 80 does not mean an 80% chance of anything. It means the baseline is high in its band — nothing more, nothing less.
Nothing here is financial advice. It is a lens, not a signal.
Hard money. Don't trust. Verify.
— PseudoNakamoto21
The 200-day SMA, painted with the ZIZO risk engine. Trend and valuation in a single line — no second pane required.
Hard money. Don't trust. Verify.
──────────────────────────────
WHAT IT DOES
A moving average tells you where the trend is. It says nothing about whether that trend is cheap or expensive. This overlay adds the missing half.
It plots a standard SMA (200 by default) directly on your price chart, then colours that line by the same risk model that drives the ZIZO Risk pane. Cold blue means low risk — the baseline is sitting deep in the value band. Hot red means high risk — it's stretched toward the top. You read the trend and its risk in one glance, without opening a separate oscillator.
The colour engine is the ZIZO Risk v3.9 engine, verbatim. Same bounds, same colormap, same numbers. If the risk pane says 42, this line paints the 0.4 band. Parity is the whole point — verify it side by side.
──────────────────────────────
HOW THE RISK IS MEASURED
Risk here is a position, not a probability. It answers one question: where does the price sit between a lower bound and an upper bound, measured in log space?
• 0 means price is resting on the lower bound.
• 100 means price is pressed against the upper bound.
• 50 means it's halfway between, on a log scale.
The bounds are built from the SMA baseline and a time-scaling factor. The factor lets the bands drift as the series ages — a deliberate model assumption that fair-value ranges compress over a long history rather than staying fixed forever. You control that drift with the Decay and Sensitivity inputs. If you reject the assumption, flatten them.
Because the metric lives in log space, it behaves the way a log price chart does. That is intentional and consistent across the whole ZIZO suite.
──────────────────────────────
TWO COLOUR SOURCES
The line drawn is always the SMA. What you colour it by is your choice:
• Smoothed Risk (default) — the risk of the SMA itself. Calmer. This is the line that matches the smoothed track in the risk pane.
• Relative Risk — the risk of spot price. Jumpier, more reactive. Use it when you want the SMA to carry the live temperature of price rather than its own.
The info table shows both readings at once, each on its own colour swatch, so you never have to guess which is which. Table text auto-contrasts — black on bright swatches, white on dark — so it stays legible in every band.
──────────────────────────────
MULTI-TIMEFRAME
Set the risk timeframe to Daily, Weekly, Monthly, or follow the chart. The SMA and its risk are computed on that timeframe and pulled onto your chart, so you can run a true daily-risk SMA while viewing any resolution.
──────────────────────────────
ALERT
One alert: band change. It fires when the coloured line crosses from one risk band into the next — a regime shift of one decile. Quiet when nothing has changed, loud when the temperature moves.
──────────────────────────────
INPUTS WORTH KNOWING
• SMA length and line width.
• Colour source — Smoothed or Relative.
• Risk engine controls — Time offset, Decay, Sensitivity, Baseline control, Upper/Lower bound.
• Lowerbound is dynamic — leave this off (recommended). The lower bound holds steadier that way.
• Timeframe, info table position and size.
──────────────────────────────
HONEST NOTES
This is not a new model. It is the ZIZO Risk engine wearing a different coat. Every value it prints should match the risk pane to the decimal — if it ever doesn't, trust neither until you find out why.
The bounds ship calibrated for BTC. Point it at another asset and the numbers become meaningless until you recalibrate. Do the work, or don't trust the colour.
Risk is a position between two bounds, not a forecast. A reading of 80 does not mean an 80% chance of anything. It means the baseline is high in its band — nothing more, nothing less.
Nothing here is financial advice. It is a lens, not a signal.
Hard money. Don't trust. Verify.
— PseudoNakamoto21
Script de código aberto
Em verdadeiro espírito do TradingView, o criador deste script o tornou de código aberto, para que os traders possam revisar e verificar sua funcionalidade. Parabéns ao autor! Embora você possa usá-lo gratuitamente, lembre-se de que a republicação do código está sujeita às nossas Regras da Casa.
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.
Script de código aberto
Em verdadeiro espírito do TradingView, o criador deste script o tornou de código aberto, para que os traders possam revisar e verificar sua funcionalidade. Parabéns ao autor! Embora você possa usá-lo gratuitamente, lembre-se de que a republicação do código está sujeita às nossas Regras da Casa.
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.