OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Atualizado True Seasonal Probability Map
True Seasonal Probability Map is a weekly seasonal analysis tool for 1W charts.
The script combines two related seasonal views:
1. True Seasonal Curve
The curve groups historical weekly price changes by calendar week and builds a normalized seasonal path. Users can choose the lookback period, smoothing, detrending, and normalization mode. The curve helps visualize how the selected market has tended to move through the calendar year.
2. Bernstein Weekly Probability Map
The weekly boxes show the historical percentage of positive closes for each calendar week. The Bernstein lookback can be set independently from the seasonal curve, using maximum available data, 30 years, 15 years, or a custom value. This allows users to compare a shorter seasonal regime with a broader long-term probability sample.
The weekly boxes are aligned with the chart timeline. Boxes for the current year align with the corresponding weekly candles, while future boxes extend to the right of the current bar to show upcoming calendar weeks. Green indicates a positive historical bias, red indicates a negative historical bias, and neutral colors indicate a more balanced probability zone.
A configurable average window highlights the current week plus the next selected number of weeks. By default, the box shows a 6-week average including the current week. The average value is displayed inside the highlighted period.
Main settings:
- True Seasonal Years: lookback used for the seasonal curve.
- Bernstein Lookback: lookback used for weekly probability calculations.
- Line Color Source: choose whether the seasonal curve colors follow Bernstein probabilities or the True Seasonal probability calculation.
- Bernstein Future Weeks: number of future weekly probability boxes to display.
- Current Avg Weeks: number of weeks included in the highlighted average window.
- Reliability %: threshold used to classify stronger bullish or bearish probability zones.
This indicator does not generate buy or sell signals. It is intended as a seasonal context tool. Historical seasonal tendencies and weekly positive-close probabilities do not predict future results. Use this tool together with market structure, trend, volatility, liquidity, macro context, and risk management.
The script combines two related seasonal views:
1. True Seasonal Curve
The curve groups historical weekly price changes by calendar week and builds a normalized seasonal path. Users can choose the lookback period, smoothing, detrending, and normalization mode. The curve helps visualize how the selected market has tended to move through the calendar year.
2. Bernstein Weekly Probability Map
The weekly boxes show the historical percentage of positive closes for each calendar week. The Bernstein lookback can be set independently from the seasonal curve, using maximum available data, 30 years, 15 years, or a custom value. This allows users to compare a shorter seasonal regime with a broader long-term probability sample.
The weekly boxes are aligned with the chart timeline. Boxes for the current year align with the corresponding weekly candles, while future boxes extend to the right of the current bar to show upcoming calendar weeks. Green indicates a positive historical bias, red indicates a negative historical bias, and neutral colors indicate a more balanced probability zone.
A configurable average window highlights the current week plus the next selected number of weeks. By default, the box shows a 6-week average including the current week. The average value is displayed inside the highlighted period.
Main settings:
- True Seasonal Years: lookback used for the seasonal curve.
- Bernstein Lookback: lookback used for weekly probability calculations.
- Line Color Source: choose whether the seasonal curve colors follow Bernstein probabilities or the True Seasonal probability calculation.
- Bernstein Future Weeks: number of future weekly probability boxes to display.
- Current Avg Weeks: number of weeks included in the highlighted average window.
- Reliability %: threshold used to classify stronger bullish or bearish probability zones.
This indicator does not generate buy or sell signals. It is intended as a seasonal context tool. Historical seasonal tendencies and weekly positive-close probabilities do not predict future results. Use this tool together with market structure, trend, volatility, liquidity, macro context, and risk management.
Notas de Lançamento
UpdateThis update adds several improvements to the existing weekly seasonal framework.
The Bernstein weekly boxes were improved so that projected future boxes are aligned on the calendar timeline. A new option can extend the future weekly boxes through the end of the current calendar year.
A compact statistics table was added. It shows the current calendar week, the selected multi-week seasonal window, monthly seasonality, and the current trading day of the month.
Monthly seasonality is now available as a table statistic. It can be calculated either from weekly bars assigned to their calendar month or from full calendar-month changes.
Trading-Day-of-Month statistics were added. The script uses daily bars inside the weekly chart to count the current trading day of the month and evaluate historical TDM tendencies. TDM can be calculated for the current calendar month or across all months. Month-specific TDM rows are only shown when the required sample count is available.
The table was also cleaned up visually. Monthly background shading was removed, table backgrounds are neutral, and unnecessary hidden plot outputs were removed from the Style tab.
The indicator remains a seasonal context tool and does not generate buy or sell signals. Historical seasonal tendencies and probability statistics do not guarantee future results.
Script de código aberto
Em verdadeiro espírito do TradingView, o criador deste script o tornou de código aberto, para que os traders possam revisar e verificar sua funcionalidade. Parabéns ao autor! Embora você possa usá-lo gratuitamente, lembre-se de que a republicação do código está sujeita às nossas Regras da Casa.
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.
Script de código aberto
Em verdadeiro espírito do TradingView, o criador deste script o tornou de código aberto, para que os traders possam revisar e verificar sua funcionalidade. Parabéns ao autor! Embora você possa usá-lo gratuitamente, lembre-se de que a republicação do código está sujeita às nossas Regras da Casa.
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.