Forward P/E Rolling Z-Score

The Forward P/E Rolling Z-Score is an advanced fundamental-technical hybrid indicator designed to evaluate equity valuation extremes. By standardizing forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios into a rolling statistical Z-score, this tool helps investors identify when a stock or index is statistically overvalued or undervalued relative to its own historical baseline. Unlike traditional static P/E multiples that fail to account for shifting market regimes, this indicator dynamically measures standard deviation shifts over a rolling lookback period. Furthermore, it features a built-in historical performance tracker that automatically measures forward returns, win rates, and trigger counts across multiple time horizons (1-Month, 3-Month, 6-Month, and 1-Year) based on user-defined threshold crossings.

Key Features

Dynamic Valuation Z-Score: Calculates a rolling mean and standard deviation of forward P/E ratios to measure statistical deviation from the norm.
Optional Smoothing: Apply a moving average (SMA or EMA) to the raw Z-score to filter out high-frequency noise and reduce false signal whipsaws.
Automated Performance Table: Displays a real-time analytics matrix on the chart tracking historical forward returns, win percentages, and total sample triggers since a customizable start date.
Multi-Horizon Tracking: Evaluates signal efficacy across 4 distinct forward windows: 1 Month (21 bars), 3 Months (63 bars), 6 Months (126 bars), and 1 Year (252 bars).

[*]Visual Extremes Shading: Automatically highlights expensive and cheap valuation zones on the chart background for quick visual identification.
Flexible Signal Triggers: Customize your directional bias with selectable cross modes (Cross Over or Cross Under) and adjustable standard deviation thresholds.

Inputs & Customization

Performance Tracking Start Date: Set the historical anchor date to begin tracking backtested signal performance.
Z-Score Settings: Lookback Period (Bars) defines the historical window for mean and standard deviation calculations (default: 60); Signal Threshold & Direction defines the standard deviation trigger levels and whether to track crosses above or below the threshold; Annualize EPS automatically projects quarterly estimates into annualized figures.
Moving Average Smoothing: Allows you to select between EMA or SMA, and adjust the length.
Visuals: Toggle extreme zone background shading and select whether shading/signals rely on raw or smoothed Z-scores.
Performance Table: Customize table placement (Top Right, Top Left, Bottom Right, Bottom Left) or toggle it entirely.

How to Use

Valuation Assessment: Monitor the lower pane oscillator. Values above +/- 2 indicate statistically expensive conditions, while values below your set threshold indicate attractive, cheap valuations.

Strategy Optimization: Use the on-chart performance table to inspect how historical signals have performed over various forward horizons to gauge the predictive edge of your chosen threshold.Disclaimer: This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

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