Thesis:
ASML is building one of the more interesting weekly structures in the semiconductor space.
After a strong Wave 3 advance, price has spent several months compressing inside what looks like a bullish Wave 4 wedge.
A clean breakout from this structure, followed by a reclaim of the $2,000 area, would put the larger Wave 5 scenario firmly in play for me.
Context
ASML reported Q3 earnings on Wednesday, with record net sales of €11.7B, €5.0B in net income and a 57.5% gross margin.
The company also raised its 2026 revenue outlook to €44B–€45B, while management continues to point to very strong AI-driven demand extending well beyond the current cycle.
The fundamentals remain strong. Now the chart is approaching an important technical decision point.
What I see
- Wave 3 completed around the $2,000 area
- Price is now consolidating inside a bullish Wave 4 wedge
- The 50WMA continues to rise below price
- The previous Wave 3 high also aligns closely with the 0.786 Fibonacci level around $2,002
What matters now
The first thing I want to see is a clean breakout from the wedge.
The stronger confirmation would come if ASML can then break and hold above the $2,000 area.
That would tell me Wave 4 is likely complete and Wave 5 is beginning.
A rejection here would keep the deeper Wave 4 scenario alive, with the rising 50WMA becoming the next major confluence area to watch.
Targets
- Bull Case confirmation: break and hold above the $2,000 area
- Wave 5 target: around $2,800 at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension
Watchlist note
ASML remains one of the strongest semiconductor businesses I follow, but the chart is still at a decision point.
For me, confirmation matters more than anticipating the breakout.
ASML is building one of the more interesting weekly structures in the semiconductor space.
After a strong Wave 3 advance, price has spent several months compressing inside what looks like a bullish Wave 4 wedge.
A clean breakout from this structure, followed by a reclaim of the $2,000 area, would put the larger Wave 5 scenario firmly in play for me.
Context
ASML reported Q3 earnings on Wednesday, with record net sales of €11.7B, €5.0B in net income and a 57.5% gross margin.
The company also raised its 2026 revenue outlook to €44B–€45B, while management continues to point to very strong AI-driven demand extending well beyond the current cycle.
The fundamentals remain strong. Now the chart is approaching an important technical decision point.
What I see
- Wave 3 completed around the $2,000 area
- Price is now consolidating inside a bullish Wave 4 wedge
- The 50WMA continues to rise below price
- The previous Wave 3 high also aligns closely with the 0.786 Fibonacci level around $2,002
What matters now
The first thing I want to see is a clean breakout from the wedge.
The stronger confirmation would come if ASML can then break and hold above the $2,000 area.
That would tell me Wave 4 is likely complete and Wave 5 is beginning.
A rejection here would keep the deeper Wave 4 scenario alive, with the rising 50WMA becoming the next major confluence area to watch.
Targets
- Bull Case confirmation: break and hold above the $2,000 area
- Wave 5 target: around $2,800 at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension
Watchlist note
ASML remains one of the strongest semiconductor businesses I follow, but the chart is still at a decision point.
For me, confirmation matters more than anticipating the breakout.
Long term investor. Open portfolio and full thesis on eToro: etoro.com/people/maratteo
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并非旨在提供，也不构成TradingView提供或认可的任何形式的财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议或推荐。请阅读使用条款了解更多信息。
Long term investor. Open portfolio and full thesis on eToro: etoro.com/people/maratteo
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并非旨在提供，也不构成TradingView提供或认可的任何形式的财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议或推荐。请阅读使用条款了解更多信息。