1. Recap of My Last BTC Outlook (5 November)
In the 5th November analysis, I noted that the 106k support zone was under pressure, and if that level failed, the next meaningful target would be 90k — because 100k, despite being psychological, should not offer much after technical break.
That played out perfectly:
- 106k failed
- 100k offered nothing but a small rebound
- BTC dropped straight into the 90k zone
And then continued even deeper, almost touching 80k before rebounding
We’re now trading around 87,500, after a textbook corrective bounce.
2. Is the Bottom In?
➡️ In my opinion, no. Definitely not.
And here’s where I apply my usual contrarian filter:
Whenever I start hearing the same voices saying the same thing —
“Bitcoin bottom is in! Bitcoin up only!”
— I immediately become cautious.
These are the same people who never consider the other side of the market.
A broken compass can show the right direction once in a while, but it’s still broken.
3. Technical Picture – Nothing Bullish Here
- Yes, the bounce from 80k is normal and expected.
- Yes, BTC can easily retrace 10–15k after a large drop.
- But nothing in the current structure suggests a meaningful bottom.
What we have right now is:
- A classic corrective rebound
- Weak impulse
- No break back above of important resistance
- No reversal pattern
- No shift in market bias
It looks exactly like what price should do after a violent leg down — not like a new bull trend.
This is the type of rebound where retail screams “moon,” but professionals simply prepare for another sell.
4. My Outlook – Bearish Until BTC Reclaims 100k With Conviction
My plan is simple and level-driven:
Preferred Sell Zone:
- 92k → This is where I want to sell, ideally on a weak rally
Downside Targets:
- 80k → Recent low and first logical stop
- 75k → Major structural support and second target
Bearish outlook is invalidated ONLY if:
➡️ BTC reclaims 100k with conviction (not a wick, not a temporary spike)
Until that happens, every rally is a potential shorting opportunity.
5. Conclusion – Still Bearish, Despite the Bounce
BTC has done exactly what it was supposed to do:
- Drop to 90k
- Overshoot to 80k
- And bounce in a corrective manner
Nothing about this price action signals a bottom.
If anything, it signals more downside ahead — once the corrective rally into 92k completes.
Bias: Bearish
Approach: Sell rallies
Invalidation: Break and hold above 100k with conviction
Until then, the narrative “bitcoin up only” remains a meme, not analysis. ⚠️
In the 5th November analysis, I noted that the 106k support zone was under pressure, and if that level failed, the next meaningful target would be 90k — because 100k, despite being psychological, should not offer much after technical break.
That played out perfectly:
- 106k failed
- 100k offered nothing but a small rebound
- BTC dropped straight into the 90k zone
And then continued even deeper, almost touching 80k before rebounding
We’re now trading around 87,500, after a textbook corrective bounce.
2. Is the Bottom In?
➡️ In my opinion, no. Definitely not.
And here’s where I apply my usual contrarian filter:
Whenever I start hearing the same voices saying the same thing —
“Bitcoin bottom is in! Bitcoin up only!”
— I immediately become cautious.
These are the same people who never consider the other side of the market.
A broken compass can show the right direction once in a while, but it’s still broken.
3. Technical Picture – Nothing Bullish Here
- Yes, the bounce from 80k is normal and expected.
- Yes, BTC can easily retrace 10–15k after a large drop.
- But nothing in the current structure suggests a meaningful bottom.
What we have right now is:
- A classic corrective rebound
- Weak impulse
- No break back above of important resistance
- No reversal pattern
- No shift in market bias
It looks exactly like what price should do after a violent leg down — not like a new bull trend.
This is the type of rebound where retail screams “moon,” but professionals simply prepare for another sell.
4. My Outlook – Bearish Until BTC Reclaims 100k With Conviction
My plan is simple and level-driven:
Preferred Sell Zone:
- 92k → This is where I want to sell, ideally on a weak rally
Downside Targets:
- 80k → Recent low and first logical stop
- 75k → Major structural support and second target
Bearish outlook is invalidated ONLY if:
➡️ BTC reclaims 100k with conviction (not a wick, not a temporary spike)
Until that happens, every rally is a potential shorting opportunity.
5. Conclusion – Still Bearish, Despite the Bounce
BTC has done exactly what it was supposed to do:
- Drop to 90k
- Overshoot to 80k
- And bounce in a corrective manner
Nothing about this price action signals a bottom.
If anything, it signals more downside ahead — once the corrective rally into 92k completes.
Bias: Bearish
Approach: Sell rallies
Invalidation: Break and hold above 100k with conviction
Until then, the narrative “bitcoin up only” remains a meme, not analysis. ⚠️
交易开始
BTC has entered my sell zone
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🎯 Want More Trading Ideas?
📈 Join the FREE Forex & Gold Channel
👉 t.me/intradaytradingsignals
💎 Join the FREE Crypto Channel
👉 t.me/FanCryptocurrency
📈 Join the FREE Forex & Gold Channel
👉 t.me/intradaytradingsignals
💎 Join the FREE Crypto Channel
👉 t.me/FanCryptocurrency
相关出版物
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并非旨在提供，也不构成TradingView提供或认可的任何形式的财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议或推荐。请阅读使用条款了解更多信息。