The Reason to See BTC at $70k and NOT as a Safe Heaven.
Bitcoin was definitely the asset that gave me the best returns throughout 2025.
During the start of the year the bounces and constant upward breakouts were a goldmine for entries until everything shifted in November 2025.
The trendline broke at the exact same time as that crucial support level at $108k which I had mentioned was vital for staying bullish. This completely changed my outlook to bearish for 2026.
Cycle Patterns and Market Reality
We already expected the bull cycle to wrap up around October or November of 2025 if we followed the previous halving patterns.
Because so many signs lined up I warned that Bitcoin was not the place to be in 2026.
I heard so many people calling Bitcoin a safe haven asset but I think time has proven what institutional money actually considers a refuge.
Just look at what has been happening with gold and silver charts recently.
Even if it is a bit of a side note I want to share this reflection so we understand that while Bitcoin is great the big players do not really see it as a safe haven yet.
When fear hits the market the big money tends to run away from $BITSTAMP:BTCUSD.
Analyzing Current Movements
Moving on we saw the expected bounce at 81k dollars and returned to the 93k dollar zone.
After forming a small channel and a larger wedge we can now see the price breaking below both patterns and looking downward.
These breaks suggest the price is heading back toward the 81k dollar zone and that is where the real fight will happen. I think it is very likely we will see another move down toward 70k dollars where the next major support sits. This is based on Elliot wave & Fibo coincidences + previous cycle ATH, but this is not useful to trade now, I'll Take profits at $81k and then I'll wait for the next break or bounce.
The Power of Mathematical Levels
Why are there so many white levels at the same distance from each other?
I explained this in a previous post but it is so incredibly important and reliable that I will mention it again.
Those white levels are extremely significant because they act as support and resistance over and over. They have this unique quality of always being the same distance apart which makes Bitcoin feel surprisingly predictable. I even published an idea calling 124k dollars as the top before it actually happened.
🤔 What are your thoughts on Bitcoin?
Do you think it should start acting as a safe haven or will the halving cycles keep calling the shots as they have since the very beginning?
👇 WANT MORE?
🚀 Hit the rocket, read my profile and follow so we can find each other again.
Bitcoin was definitely the asset that gave me the best returns throughout 2025.
During the start of the year the bounces and constant upward breakouts were a goldmine for entries until everything shifted in November 2025.
The trendline broke at the exact same time as that crucial support level at $108k which I had mentioned was vital for staying bullish. This completely changed my outlook to bearish for 2026.
Cycle Patterns and Market Reality
We already expected the bull cycle to wrap up around October or November of 2025 if we followed the previous halving patterns.
Because so many signs lined up I warned that Bitcoin was not the place to be in 2026.
I heard so many people calling Bitcoin a safe haven asset but I think time has proven what institutional money actually considers a refuge.
Just look at what has been happening with gold and silver charts recently.
Even if it is a bit of a side note I want to share this reflection so we understand that while Bitcoin is great the big players do not really see it as a safe haven yet.
When fear hits the market the big money tends to run away from $BITSTAMP:BTCUSD.
Analyzing Current Movements
Moving on we saw the expected bounce at 81k dollars and returned to the 93k dollar zone.
After forming a small channel and a larger wedge we can now see the price breaking below both patterns and looking downward.
These breaks suggest the price is heading back toward the 81k dollar zone and that is where the real fight will happen. I think it is very likely we will see another move down toward 70k dollars where the next major support sits. This is based on Elliot wave & Fibo coincidences + previous cycle ATH, but this is not useful to trade now, I'll Take profits at $81k and then I'll wait for the next break or bounce.
The Power of Mathematical Levels
Why are there so many white levels at the same distance from each other?
I explained this in a previous post but it is so incredibly important and reliable that I will mention it again.
Those white levels are extremely significant because they act as support and resistance over and over. They have this unique quality of always being the same distance apart which makes Bitcoin feel surprisingly predictable. I even published an idea calling 124k dollars as the top before it actually happened.
🤔 What are your thoughts on Bitcoin?
Do you think it should start acting as a safe haven or will the halving cycles keep calling the shots as they have since the very beginning?
👇 WANT MORE?
🚀 Hit the rocket, read my profile and follow so we can find each other again.
交易开始
Bitcoin has dropped below $80k, as predicted after breaking the bearish pattern (yellow). It broke through the $81k level without hesitation and has paused at the April 2025 low. While it might catch its breath at these levels, it seems far from its floor, as we anticipated months ago.Furthermore, BTC is failing to act as a store of value, instead, it is increasingly behaving like a high-beta tech stock.
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Trade smarter, not harder.
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📈 +200% returns
🎯 70%+ win rate (audited)
Trade smarter, not harder.
👉topchartpatterns.substack.com/subscribe
📩 Business: info@topchartpatterns.com
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🚀 Simple Chart Patterns. Serious Profits.
📈 +200% returns
🎯 70%+ win rate (audited)
Trade smarter, not harder.
👉topchartpatterns.substack.com/subscribe
📩 Business: info@topchartpatterns.com
📈 +200% returns
🎯 70%+ win rate (audited)
Trade smarter, not harder.
👉topchartpatterns.substack.com/subscribe
📩 Business: info@topchartpatterns.com
相关出版物
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并非旨在提供，也不构成TradingView提供或认可的任何形式的财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议或推荐。请阅读使用条款了解更多信息。