Hi everyone. This is the very first analysis I'm publishing here.
Let's dive into Bitcoin and perform a multi-timeframe analysis.
Monthly Timeframe
Starting with the monthly chart, we are currently in a strong bearish leg. Before considering any spot buying on this timeframe, we need to wait for a strong reversal candle. In the last closed candle, price dropped straight into a pre-existing support zone. Now, we have to wait and see how the July candle structured itself over the next 26 days.
Weekly Timeframe
On the weekly chart, we can see a clean downtrend with clearly visible lower highs and lower lows. Furthermore, since price has broken below the $66,270 support, we can expect it to pay a visit to the $53,550 level.
For a spot entry on the weekly timeframe, we can look at a few scenarios:
Price drops to $53,550, forms an accumulation zone, and we enter on a clean upside breakout of that range.
Price moves up and breaks above the last major swing high at $82,120, confirming a trend reversal.
Price begins to form a new trend right from current levels, establishing a bottom and creating a new high before reaching $82,120. Then, on the subsequent higher low, we enter our spot position once it breaks that newly formed local high.
Daily Timeframe
Moving on to the daily timeframe, after getting rejected from the $82,275 peak, price started a sharp bearish leg, followed by an upside retracement to $66,516 where it got rejected again. However, this second drop wasn't as aggressive as the previous one, bottoming out at $58,294 before initiating another upward retracement.
To wrap things up before looking at lower timeframes for execution: our monthly and weekly views are bearish, and the daily is also bearish but showing signs of trend exhaustion.
4-Hour & 1-Hour Timeframes (Execution)
On the 4-hour chart, after bouncing from $58,316 to $64,135, we can see a noticeable momentum loss in the bullish move. If you look closely, the slope of the move has rounded off into a semi-circle. Since our 1-hour entries are based on the 4-hour trend direction, we can map out our long and short triggers.
Long Scenario: If price closes above $64,203.4, it will have broken its last 4-hour swing high while printing a higher low. This signals a potential bullish shift on the 4-hour chart. Once price reacts to $64,203.4 and forms a higher low that offers a tight, logical stop loss, we can look for an entry. We will trigger the long position on a retest (second touch or later), specifically when a candle closes above resistance accompanied by breakout volume higher than the 20 MA.
Short Scenario: To trade in line with the current 4-hour bearish trend, we wait for the 1-hour timeframe. Once price reacts to $61,746.7, prints a lower high, and breaks our support line with candle volume exceeding the 20 MA, we will enter a short position, placing the stop loss just above the newly formed swing high.
I hope you enjoyed this analysis and find it useful. As always, make sure to prioritize your risk and money management!
Let's dive into Bitcoin and perform a multi-timeframe analysis.
Monthly Timeframe
Starting with the monthly chart, we are currently in a strong bearish leg. Before considering any spot buying on this timeframe, we need to wait for a strong reversal candle. In the last closed candle, price dropped straight into a pre-existing support zone. Now, we have to wait and see how the July candle structured itself over the next 26 days.
Weekly Timeframe
On the weekly chart, we can see a clean downtrend with clearly visible lower highs and lower lows. Furthermore, since price has broken below the $66,270 support, we can expect it to pay a visit to the $53,550 level.
For a spot entry on the weekly timeframe, we can look at a few scenarios:
Price drops to $53,550, forms an accumulation zone, and we enter on a clean upside breakout of that range.
Price moves up and breaks above the last major swing high at $82,120, confirming a trend reversal.
Price begins to form a new trend right from current levels, establishing a bottom and creating a new high before reaching $82,120. Then, on the subsequent higher low, we enter our spot position once it breaks that newly formed local high.
Daily Timeframe
Moving on to the daily timeframe, after getting rejected from the $82,275 peak, price started a sharp bearish leg, followed by an upside retracement to $66,516 where it got rejected again. However, this second drop wasn't as aggressive as the previous one, bottoming out at $58,294 before initiating another upward retracement.
To wrap things up before looking at lower timeframes for execution: our monthly and weekly views are bearish, and the daily is also bearish but showing signs of trend exhaustion.
4-Hour & 1-Hour Timeframes (Execution)
On the 4-hour chart, after bouncing from $58,316 to $64,135, we can see a noticeable momentum loss in the bullish move. If you look closely, the slope of the move has rounded off into a semi-circle. Since our 1-hour entries are based on the 4-hour trend direction, we can map out our long and short triggers.
Long Scenario: If price closes above $64,203.4, it will have broken its last 4-hour swing high while printing a higher low. This signals a potential bullish shift on the 4-hour chart. Once price reacts to $64,203.4 and forms a higher low that offers a tight, logical stop loss, we can look for an entry. We will trigger the long position on a retest (second touch or later), specifically when a candle closes above resistance accompanied by breakout volume higher than the 20 MA.
Short Scenario: To trade in line with the current 4-hour bearish trend, we wait for the 1-hour timeframe. Once price reacts to $61,746.7, prints a lower high, and breaks our support line with candle volume exceeding the 20 MA, we will enter a short position, placing the stop loss just above the newly formed swing high.
I hope you enjoyed this analysis and find it useful. As always, make sure to prioritize your risk and money management!
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免责声明
这些信息和出版物并非旨在提供，也不构成TradingView提供或认可的任何形式的财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议或推荐。请阅读使用条款了解更多信息。