On the BTC weekly chart, I’m seeing an interesting recurring pattern from previous market cycles.
Every time Bitcoin has corrected back toward the region of the previous cycle peak, it has eventually formed a major macro bottom. At the same time, the weekly RSI moved into or near the 30 level, which historically marked extreme oversold conditions.
Previous examples
2017 peak → 2018 bottom
After the 2017 bull market top, BTC corrected heavily and eventually formed a macro bottom while the weekly RSI was near the 30 zone.
2021 peak → 2022 bottom
After the 2021 cycle peak, BTC again dropped toward the previous major peak area and formed a bottom while the weekly RSI reached deeply oversold levels.
2025 peak → possible macro bottom or another leg lower?
If this cycle continues to follow a similar structure, then a correction toward the previous cycle peak zone could become an important macro support area again.
The key idea I’m watching is the combination of:
BTC retesting the previous cycle peak region
Weekly RSI moving toward the 30 level
Price reacting around major high-volume support zones
On this chart, the previous peak/support region around $69K–$74K is especially important. A deeper move toward $60K could also act as a key level if the market continues correcting.
If BTC reaches this zone while the weekly RSI is near 30, it could historically suggest a potential macro bottom or at least a major accumulation area.
Right now, I’m waiting for the next retrace to see how BTC reacts around this key zone. For me, there are two main scenarios:
Scenario 1: Macro bottom formation
If BTC holds the current support area, forms a higher low, and the weekly RSI/TDI starts recovering from the lower range, this could potentially mark the macro bottom of the current correction.
Scenario 2: Third wave down from the top
If BTC fails to hold support and the retrace gets rejected, then the correction may not be finished yet. In that case, we could still see a third wave down from the top, with lower support levels coming into play before a real bottom is confirmed.
TDI / RSI confirmation
I’m also watching the TDI/RSI structure as an extra confirmation tool.
In previous BTC cycle bottoms, the weekly RSI/TDI moved into the lower range near the 30 level, often while price was retesting major macro support. This showed that the market was reaching deeply oversold conditions on the higher timeframe.
Right now, I’m watching for a similar reaction. If the TDI starts curling back up from the lower range while BTC holds support, it would strengthen the macro bottom scenario.
For me, the TDI is not the main signal by itself. I use it as confirmation together with price structure, previous cycle peak levels, volume zones, support/resistance, and key moving averages.
This does not mean the bottom is guaranteed. It is simply a cycle-based setup I’m watching closely. A strong bounce and reclaim of key levels would support the bottom scenario, while a weak reaction or another breakdown would suggest that BTC may still need more downside.
Not financial advice — just a historical technical observation.
Every time Bitcoin has corrected back toward the region of the previous cycle peak, it has eventually formed a major macro bottom. At the same time, the weekly RSI moved into or near the 30 level, which historically marked extreme oversold conditions.
Previous examples
2017 peak → 2018 bottom
After the 2017 bull market top, BTC corrected heavily and eventually formed a macro bottom while the weekly RSI was near the 30 zone.
2021 peak → 2022 bottom
After the 2021 cycle peak, BTC again dropped toward the previous major peak area and formed a bottom while the weekly RSI reached deeply oversold levels.
2025 peak → possible macro bottom or another leg lower?
If this cycle continues to follow a similar structure, then a correction toward the previous cycle peak zone could become an important macro support area again.
The key idea I’m watching is the combination of:
BTC retesting the previous cycle peak region
Weekly RSI moving toward the 30 level
Price reacting around major high-volume support zones
On this chart, the previous peak/support region around $69K–$74K is especially important. A deeper move toward $60K could also act as a key level if the market continues correcting.
If BTC reaches this zone while the weekly RSI is near 30, it could historically suggest a potential macro bottom or at least a major accumulation area.
Right now, I’m waiting for the next retrace to see how BTC reacts around this key zone. For me, there are two main scenarios:
Scenario 1: Macro bottom formation
If BTC holds the current support area, forms a higher low, and the weekly RSI/TDI starts recovering from the lower range, this could potentially mark the macro bottom of the current correction.
Scenario 2: Third wave down from the top
If BTC fails to hold support and the retrace gets rejected, then the correction may not be finished yet. In that case, we could still see a third wave down from the top, with lower support levels coming into play before a real bottom is confirmed.
TDI / RSI confirmation
I’m also watching the TDI/RSI structure as an extra confirmation tool.
In previous BTC cycle bottoms, the weekly RSI/TDI moved into the lower range near the 30 level, often while price was retesting major macro support. This showed that the market was reaching deeply oversold conditions on the higher timeframe.
Right now, I’m watching for a similar reaction. If the TDI starts curling back up from the lower range while BTC holds support, it would strengthen the macro bottom scenario.
For me, the TDI is not the main signal by itself. I use it as confirmation together with price structure, previous cycle peak levels, volume zones, support/resistance, and key moving averages.
This does not mean the bottom is guaranteed. It is simply a cycle-based setup I’m watching closely. A strong bounce and reclaim of key levels would support the bottom scenario, while a weak reaction or another breakdown would suggest that BTC may still need more downside.
Not financial advice — just a historical technical observation.
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免责声明
这些信息和出版物并非旨在提供，也不构成TradingView提供或认可的任何形式的财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议或推荐。请阅读使用条款了解更多信息。