BTC is currently at a critical juncture, with three distinct trends emerging on the same chart:Weekly Bearish Downtrend (Green):
This 1W bearish channel remains intact. Despite bullish optimism,
BTC has not broken out of this green channel, meaning we are technically still in a bearish trend.Daily Recovery Bullish Uptrend (Red):
On the 1D timeframe,
BTC has been following a recovery bullish channel. However, this channel is now colliding with the top of the bearish weekly channel, creating significant resistance.Hourly Bearish Downtrend (Yellow):
A new bearish downtrend on the 1H timeframe has formed as a result of
BTC failing to break through the top of the 1W green bearish falling wedge.Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario 1:
If
BTC breaks through the $90k resistance level and exits the weekly bearish channel (green), it could signal a strong long position and confirm the end of the downtrend, marking a reversal.Bearish Scenario 2:
If
BTC continues to follow the yellow downtrend and breaks down through the red recovery channel, this would invalidate the recovery and indicate further downside potential.Outlook and Timeframe:
In my bearish warning from February 2025, I projected the end of the bearish consolidation by May 2025. If the bearish Scenario 2 plays out, it will confirm that this early warning was once again accurate.
However, if
BTC manages to pump above $90k and sustain this level for at least a week, it would signal an early consolidation (one month ahead of schedule) and suggest that we are out of trouble.Conclusion:
Watch for a confirmed breakout or breakdown.
Patience is key; wait for confirmation before making significant moves.
As always, DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
交易开始
Bearish Scenario 2 is currently playing out. BTC has broken through all supports like butter, largely due to the SPX500 experiencing a bearish dump. The weekly candle for the TradFi market confirms that we are in a recession, which heavily impacts institutions.With tariffs looming in just a few days, the SPX500 could see further downside.
As for
BTC, the recent bounce looks unconvincing — it may be temporary. On the macro level, we remain in a bearish trend on both the 1W and now the 1D timeframe. This no longer resembles a bull market.Market makers have printed 1 billion USDT, so we could see a
BTC pump over the weekend. However, next week isn't looking promising.
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