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Bitcoin After the Rally — Is a Bigger Drop Loading?

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Last week, as investor optimism rose, especially alongside the stock market and the S&P 500(SPX500), Bitcoin(BTCUSDT) didn’t miss out on the rally, reaching around $78,600. However, over the weekend, Bitcoin began to decline. One reason is the possibility of renewed military tensions between Iran and the U.S. in the Middle East, which brought more fear into the crypto market.

Additionally, since my analysis of the S&P 500 suggests a bearish outlook, Bitcoin may continue its downward trend this week. That said, any positive news—like an Iran-U.S. agreement—could swiftly shift the market, so risk management is key.

Currently, Bitcoin is moving in the heavy resistance zone($78,600-$71,700) and approaching the Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($77,700-$76,000).

From a classical technical perspective, it seems Bitcoin could form a head and shoulders pattern, especially if it begins to decline before reaching $76,000. This would confirm the pattern and could lead to further declines in the coming days.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, it looks like Bitcoin completed its main wave C, so we may expect downward waves—particularly after breaking support lines.

I expect Bitcoin, after hitting the Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($77,700-$76,000), could drop at least to $76,000, break support lines, and potentially fall to around $73,600. If the momentum is strong, we might even see it drop toward $72,230.

First Target: $73,600

Second Target: $72,230

Stop Loss(SL): $77,500(Worst)

Points may shift as the market evolves

Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $73,300-$72,800

New CME gap: $77,545-$75,680

CME gap: $84,560-$79,660

CME gap: $70,055-$69,535

CME Gap: $67,570-$67,170

What’s your view on Bitcoin? Could it push above $80,000, or should we expect another drop?

💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.

📌Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 4-hour time frame.

🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.

✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!

🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
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Bitcoin began its rise over the past two days, and one reason for the increase was the continued bullish trend of the S&P 500, which helped propel Bitcoin upward. Bitcoin also managed to fill part of the CME Gap($77,545-$77,030) that had formed at the start of the week.

Now, considering Bitcoin’s technical conditions on the one-hour timeframe, there’s a possibility that after breaking support lines, Bitcoin could begin to decline. A key trading level Bitcoin needs to hold is $75,800. If it drops below that level with strong momentum, we could expect further decline.

⚠️Overall, we must keep an eye on the Iran-U.S. negotiations, as any developments could impact the market outlook. More than ever, it’s crucial to practice solid risk management these days.

Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $77,740-$77,000

Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $75,440-$74,430

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The Bitcoin target was hit, but I was personally targeting lower levels — so I moved my position to risk-free.

One of the key drivers behind the recent surge in financial markets — especially Bitcoin — was the ceasefire extension announced by Donald Trump.

I always try to stay transparent with you.

Hope you managed to secure some profits

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