War in Iran like war in Ukraine only benefits the dollar and does the opposite to risk on assets. Oil pumping is the signed and sealed confirmation the business cycle is coming to an end. Oil pumping = inflation rising = interest rate hikes = risk on punished.
Europe’s weak energy sector in comparison to the USA’s will only fuel the dollar higher against the £ and €. If the lowest risk on (MAG7) is about to fall being at the end of their business cycles then risk on will flock to dollars fuelling the dollar even more.
Bitcoin/Crypto has been in decline since October fully respecting its 4 year cycle to the day. This is interpreted inside the business cycle by it being more riskier than MAG7 stocks, hence last to pump at the beginning and first to dump at the end.
MAG7 is yet to fully pull back but all are on the edge. S&P naturally will bottom before more risk on (BTC) as it’s less risk on. Once Oil has topped the S&P will still take 3-6months to reprice before finding a bottom.
Europe’s weak energy sector in comparison to the USA’s will only fuel the dollar higher against the £ and €. If the lowest risk on (MAG7) is about to fall being at the end of their business cycles then risk on will flock to dollars fuelling the dollar even more.
Bitcoin/Crypto has been in decline since October fully respecting its 4 year cycle to the day. This is interpreted inside the business cycle by it being more riskier than MAG7 stocks, hence last to pump at the beginning and first to dump at the end.
MAG7 is yet to fully pull back but all are on the edge. S&P naturally will bottom before more risk on (BTC) as it’s less risk on. Once Oil has topped the S&P will still take 3-6months to reprice before finding a bottom.
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