Overview: let's review our expectations published yesterday:
Update: ES peaked at 4175, missing our target of 4190 by a very small amount. Looking at the hourly chart, I believe today we completed waves a and b of (I) of c and wave c of (I) follows before we see a bounce as wave (II). Note that the drop caused by CPI news happened in a one-minute candle, which makes it impossible to see its subwaves and decide on its wave degree. Is it possible that we have actually completed wave (I) today and we bounce as wave (II) at this point? yes, but it is of very low probability in my opinion. So, the most probable scenario is that we gap down tomorrow to ~3900 to complete wave (I) and then fade as wave (II).
- I think last night we completed wave IV, and today was the completion of wave A of V.
- We need to refine our target for wave b peak: ~4190
Update: ES peaked at 4175, missing our target of 4190 by a very small amount. Looking at the hourly chart, I believe today we completed waves a and b of (I) of c and wave c of (I) follows before we see a bounce as wave (II). Note that the drop caused by CPI news happened in a one-minute candle, which makes it impossible to see its subwaves and decide on its wave degree. Is it possible that we have actually completed wave (I) today and we bounce as wave (II) at this point? yes, but it is of very low probability in my opinion. So, the most probable scenario is that we gap down tomorrow to ~3900 to complete wave (I) and then fade as wave (II).
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