Monthly:
Price is currently at a key monthly level formed in July 2009, where a strong reversal previously occurred. However, this level is very old, and there has been no recent price reaction. Because of the lack of fresh confirmation, it is uncertain whether price will react again at this level. Therefore, we move to the lower timeframe (weekly) to look for any signs of reaction.
Weekly:
Price formed a false breakout above the monthly level, indicating a lack of buyers. After that, price created a lower low, followed by a lower high and another lower low, confirming a trend change from an uptrend to a downtrend. A trendline break further supports the bearish trend.
Daily :
Downtrend Confirmation:
Price formed a head and shoulders pattern, along with a triple top on the right shoulder. The neckline break, confirmed by a strong bearish momentum candle, validates the continuation of the downtrend.
Pullback Zone:
Price pulled back to the neckline area, aligning with the Fibonacci 0.5–0.618 retracement zone , 50 EMA , and showing multiple candle reactions.
Entry Consideration:
Due to strong bearish momentum on the daily timeframe, entering immediately was not ideal because the stop loss would be too far. The best approach was to wait for a pullback and confirm its completion on the 4-hour timeframe.
4-Hour Timeframe:
Price formed a channel pattern during the pullback. A break of the channel, followed by a lower low, confirmed that the pullback was complete and the downtrend was likely to continue, providing a valid trade entry.
Price is currently at a key monthly level formed in July 2009, where a strong reversal previously occurred. However, this level is very old, and there has been no recent price reaction. Because of the lack of fresh confirmation, it is uncertain whether price will react again at this level. Therefore, we move to the lower timeframe (weekly) to look for any signs of reaction.
Weekly:
Price formed a false breakout above the monthly level, indicating a lack of buyers. After that, price created a lower low, followed by a lower high and another lower low, confirming a trend change from an uptrend to a downtrend. A trendline break further supports the bearish trend.
Daily :
Downtrend Confirmation:
Price formed a head and shoulders pattern, along with a triple top on the right shoulder. The neckline break, confirmed by a strong bearish momentum candle, validates the continuation of the downtrend.
Pullback Zone:
Price pulled back to the neckline area, aligning with the Fibonacci 0.5–0.618 retracement zone , 50 EMA , and showing multiple candle reactions.
Entry Consideration:
Due to strong bearish momentum on the daily timeframe, entering immediately was not ideal because the stop loss would be too far. The best approach was to wait for a pullback and confirm its completion on the 4-hour timeframe.
4-Hour Timeframe:
Price formed a channel pattern during the pullback. A break of the channel, followed by a lower low, confirmed that the pullback was complete and the downtrend was likely to continue, providing a valid trade entry.
交易开始
Guys, we haven’t used any indicators. This is purely price action analysis—what are your thoughts?交易手动结束
Price has started consolidating between 1.60828 and 1.60929, while the correlated pair GBPCAD is moving upward. The trade was manually closed with a small profit.
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