1. Overall Trend
The pair has formed a strong downtrend from the resistance zone around 201.100–201.250 and is currently in a sideways/consolidation phase.
A corrective ABC wave pattern is forming:
(A) temporary bottom at 199.300–199.350
(B) retest resistance at 199.700–199.750
(C) expected continuation downward toward support around 198.900–199.000

2. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Level 201.100–201.250;Strong resistance
Previous selling zone, confirming the downtrend
Level 200.300;Intermediate resistance;Testing buying pressure before further decline
Level 199.700–199.750; Short-term resistance;Wave B retest, ideal Sell setup
Level 199.300–199.350;Temporary support;Wave A bottom, may see a minor bounce
Level 198.900–199.000; Strong support; Wave C target, safe Sell exit zone
3. Technical Indicators
EMA H1: 9/21 EMAs trending down, confirming short-term bearish momentum.
RSI H1: around 50, indicating weak buying at Wave B, suitable for short entries.
Volume: Slight increase during strong down moves, showing sellers still in control.
4. Trading Strategy
Main Scenario – Trend Continuation (Bearish)
Sell Entry: On retest of Wave B zone 199.700–199.750 with rejection candlestick pattern (pin bar, engulfing).
Stop Loss: Above recent swing high 199.850–199.900.
Take Profit: Target Wave C 198.900–199.000, partial take profit at 199.300–199.350 to reduce risk.
Alternative Scenario – Bullish Breakout
If price breaks above 199.800–199.850 and closes H1, wait for retest of new support before considering long.
Short-term TP could be 200.300–200.400.
5. Conclusion
The H1 trend remains bearish, and the ABC corrective wave indicates further decline toward strong support.
Prioritize trading with the trend, manage risk using stop loss, and scale profit-taking around key support zones.
Watch price action at 198.900–199.000 for potential reversal or short-term buy opportunities.
The pair has formed a strong downtrend from the resistance zone around 201.100–201.250 and is currently in a sideways/consolidation phase.
A corrective ABC wave pattern is forming:
(A) temporary bottom at 199.300–199.350
(B) retest resistance at 199.700–199.750
(C) expected continuation downward toward support around 198.900–199.000
2. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Level 201.100–201.250;Strong resistance
Previous selling zone, confirming the downtrend
Level 200.300;Intermediate resistance;Testing buying pressure before further decline
Level 199.700–199.750; Short-term resistance;Wave B retest, ideal Sell setup
Level 199.300–199.350;Temporary support;Wave A bottom, may see a minor bounce
Level 198.900–199.000; Strong support; Wave C target, safe Sell exit zone
3. Technical Indicators
EMA H1: 9/21 EMAs trending down, confirming short-term bearish momentum.
RSI H1: around 50, indicating weak buying at Wave B, suitable for short entries.
Volume: Slight increase during strong down moves, showing sellers still in control.
4. Trading Strategy
Main Scenario – Trend Continuation (Bearish)
Sell Entry: On retest of Wave B zone 199.700–199.750 with rejection candlestick pattern (pin bar, engulfing).
Stop Loss: Above recent swing high 199.850–199.900.
Take Profit: Target Wave C 198.900–199.000, partial take profit at 199.300–199.350 to reduce risk.
Alternative Scenario – Bullish Breakout
If price breaks above 199.800–199.850 and closes H1, wait for retest of new support before considering long.
Short-term TP could be 200.300–200.400.
5. Conclusion
The H1 trend remains bearish, and the ABC corrective wave indicates further decline toward strong support.
Prioritize trading with the trend, manage risk using stop loss, and scale profit-taking around key support zones.
Watch price action at 198.900–199.000 for potential reversal or short-term buy opportunities.
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