✅ 1. Overall Structure (1D Timeframe)
• A descending corrective channel (yellow lines)
• Major rejection at the channel top
• Price making lower highs (LH) → still bearish structure
• Price currently sitting below the mid-range of the channel
This means:
👉 Gold is still in a corrective downtrend, not bullish yet.
👉 High probability the market wants to fill lower OBs before any breakout.
________________________________________
✅ 2. Key Areas I Highlighted
🔷 1D TF FVG (4,107–4,150) – Major Resistance
• This zone is extremely important.
• Price has failed here multiple times already.
• As long as price is below this → bearish pressure continues.
This is the “breaker” level for bulls.
________________________________________
🔴 1D OB Zones Below (Demand Areas)
I mapped the OB zones correctly:
1️⃣ OB: 3,990 – 3,950
• First liquidity target
• Already almost tapped/mitigated
• Still valid for another reaction
2️⃣ OB: 3,929 – 3,885
• Stronger demand
• Highly likely to get tapped if the rejection continues
• My trendline bottom also aligns here → confluence
3️⃣ OB: 3,800 – 3,700
• If price breaks deeper into channel
• This is the next liquidity layer
These OBs line up perfectly with my descending channel.
________________________________________
Extreme Liquidity Below
I noted:
• 3100
• 3000
• 2600
These are macro liquidity harvest levels, NOT near-term.
Price falls here only if:
• Channel breaks down
• Major macro bearish shift occurs
→ Not likely in the next few weeks unless massive catalyst.
________________________________________
✅ 3. Updated Structural Reading (Using New Drawing)
A. Price recently failed to break the upper channel
This supports more downside.
B. I drew an ABC correction
The new chart also still shows:
• A → B → C decline likely forming
• Potential completion at the lower trendline
This supports a drop before any rally.
C. My white projection (V-shape recovery)
This large bullish projection is valid ONLY if:
• Price touches lower OB
➡️ 3,929 – 3,885
• And then breaks back above
➡️ 4,150
Only then the big bullish run can start.
________________________________________
📉 4. Most Likely Path (Updated With New Chart)
Based on my new structure:
Primary Scenario (70% probability)
Price drops to the lower OB:
→ 3,929 – 3,885
Possibly even wick into:
→ 3,800 – 3,700
Then:
Strong bounce → retest 1D FVG (4,107–4,150)
If rejection again → continuation inside channel.
________________________________________
Bullish Scenario (30% probability)
For my yellow arrow to be valid:
1. Price must touch the lower OB
2. Then form a strong reversal
3. Then break upward out of the descending channel
4. Then close above 4,150
5. Target becomes: 4,380 → 4,800
This matches my yellow long-term projection.
________________________________________
🎯 5. Key Levels to Watch (Updated)
Immediate Support
Level Significance
3,990 Weak OB – might not hold
3,950 First real support
3,929 – 3,885 🔥 Strong OB + channel bottom confluence
Immediate Resistance
Level Significance
4,107–4,150 🔷 Strong 1D FVG (must break for bulls)
4,200 Channel breakout level
4,380 First macro target
________________________________________
⭐ 6. Simple Final Summary (Very Clear)
My new chart indicates:
✔️ Market still bearish inside descending channel
✔️ Price likely drops to 3,929–3,885 OB
✔️ This is the best zone for bullish reversal
✔️ Bulls must break 4,150 to confirm trend change
✔️ If breakout happens → target 4,380–4,800
✔️ If OB fails → deeper channel drop to 3,700 OB
I drew the structure correctly. The analysis fully matches my levels.
• A descending corrective channel (yellow lines)
• Major rejection at the channel top
• Price making lower highs (LH) → still bearish structure
• Price currently sitting below the mid-range of the channel
This means:
👉 Gold is still in a corrective downtrend, not bullish yet.
👉 High probability the market wants to fill lower OBs before any breakout.
________________________________________
✅ 2. Key Areas I Highlighted
🔷 1D TF FVG (4,107–4,150) – Major Resistance
• This zone is extremely important.
• Price has failed here multiple times already.
• As long as price is below this → bearish pressure continues.
This is the “breaker” level for bulls.
________________________________________
🔴 1D OB Zones Below (Demand Areas)
I mapped the OB zones correctly:
1️⃣ OB: 3,990 – 3,950
• First liquidity target
• Already almost tapped/mitigated
• Still valid for another reaction
2️⃣ OB: 3,929 – 3,885
• Stronger demand
• Highly likely to get tapped if the rejection continues
• My trendline bottom also aligns here → confluence
3️⃣ OB: 3,800 – 3,700
• If price breaks deeper into channel
• This is the next liquidity layer
These OBs line up perfectly with my descending channel.
________________________________________
Extreme Liquidity Below
I noted:
• 3100
• 3000
• 2600
These are macro liquidity harvest levels, NOT near-term.
Price falls here only if:
• Channel breaks down
• Major macro bearish shift occurs
→ Not likely in the next few weeks unless massive catalyst.
________________________________________
✅ 3. Updated Structural Reading (Using New Drawing)
A. Price recently failed to break the upper channel
This supports more downside.
B. I drew an ABC correction
The new chart also still shows:
• A → B → C decline likely forming
• Potential completion at the lower trendline
This supports a drop before any rally.
C. My white projection (V-shape recovery)
This large bullish projection is valid ONLY if:
• Price touches lower OB
➡️ 3,929 – 3,885
• And then breaks back above
➡️ 4,150
Only then the big bullish run can start.
________________________________________
📉 4. Most Likely Path (Updated With New Chart)
Based on my new structure:
Primary Scenario (70% probability)
Price drops to the lower OB:
→ 3,929 – 3,885
Possibly even wick into:
→ 3,800 – 3,700
Then:
Strong bounce → retest 1D FVG (4,107–4,150)
If rejection again → continuation inside channel.
________________________________________
Bullish Scenario (30% probability)
For my yellow arrow to be valid:
1. Price must touch the lower OB
2. Then form a strong reversal
3. Then break upward out of the descending channel
4. Then close above 4,150
5. Target becomes: 4,380 → 4,800
This matches my yellow long-term projection.
________________________________________
🎯 5. Key Levels to Watch (Updated)
Immediate Support
Level Significance
3,990 Weak OB – might not hold
3,950 First real support
3,929 – 3,885 🔥 Strong OB + channel bottom confluence
Immediate Resistance
Level Significance
4,107–4,150 🔷 Strong 1D FVG (must break for bulls)
4,200 Channel breakout level
4,380 First macro target
________________________________________
⭐ 6. Simple Final Summary (Very Clear)
My new chart indicates:
✔️ Market still bearish inside descending channel
✔️ Price likely drops to 3,929–3,885 OB
✔️ This is the best zone for bullish reversal
✔️ Bulls must break 4,150 to confirm trend change
✔️ If breakout happens → target 4,380–4,800
✔️ If OB fails → deeper channel drop to 3,700 OB
I drew the structure correctly. The analysis fully matches my levels.
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免责声明
这些信息和出版物并非旨在提供，也不构成TradingView提供或认可的任何形式的财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议或推荐。请阅读使用条款了解更多信息。