This bear trap is too obvious. Now that most investors know the recession story of June 2022 was fake and irrational, there's really no basis for the major stock indexes to go much lower. However, there's probably more consolidation between 11600 and 12600 in September, as October is perceived as the traditional bearish month and investors keep panicking about the FOMC meeting. Only the most irrational and reckless traders would short near 11800, which would be guaranteed financial ruin in the long term.
Just buy as much index fund as you can, sit back and enjoy the end-of-year rally. The crazy newbie investors of 2020 and 2021 are mostly scared and liquidated out of the market right now, but sooner or later they will jump into the market with more cash, pushing IXIC to another crazy bull in 2023 and 2024. IXIC goes up, newbies got jealous, newbies jump into the market which pushes IXIC further up, making more newbies jealous... Feedback loop as they never learn.
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