15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States

U.S. MORTGAGE RATES: THE "CHAMPAGNE" MODE OF A SOBERING MEME

In our previously published ideas, we examined the debt markets of the US, UK, and Europe in detail. In this one, we'll focus on mortgage rates, specifically the US 15-year mortgage

The "STONKS GO UP" meme goes "RATES GO UP."

The 15-year fixed mortgage rate in the US will reach 5.7% in the first half of 2026, following the linear trend that has been going on since 2021 and its 5-year moving average.
These are no longer the extreme values of the post-COVID cycle, but they're also far from the pre-crisis comfortable range of 3-4%. A highly understandable TradingView chart and an upward breakout of the triangle visually demonstrate that the rate has jumped to a new "shelf," leaving no chance for a downward reversal.

The Bond Crisis as a Foundation for High Rates

The US Treasury bond market is in a state of prolonged stress: periods of rising yields are followed by only brief respite.
Yields on 10- and 30-year Treasuries are rising to levels above 4.5-5%, which automatically pushes mortgage rates higher.
Each new wave of inflation surprises or increased Treasury borrowing adds basis points to the entire yield curve, cementing "expensive money."

Mortgages Follow U.S. Treasuries

Mortgage-backed securities are trading at a premium to Treasuries, integrating the risk of early repayment and refinancing.
Therefore, 15-year mortgage rates are above Treasury yields but moving in the same direction, mirroring the underlying market trend.
This is reflected in the chart by the upward trend line under the rate curve—the debt market is not yet confident in a sustainable return to low inflation.

Practical Conclusions

The 15-year mortgage rate of around 5.7% no longer appears to be a temporary anomaly, but rather a new underlying reality, with the prospect of moving toward double-digit rates.
Mortgages account for the largest share of household debt nationwide. According to Bankrate, the average American has $258,214 in debt. Millennials have the highest average mortgage debt at $320,027, followed by Generation X at $286,574.
The question now isn't "when will rates return to the old way?" but "are all these X-Men and millennials ready to live in a new, brave world where the "STONKS GO UP" meme has evolved into "RATES GO UP"—and get a mortgage at the rates shown on our chart in TradingView?"
Perhaps not all of them, but certainly most of them, viewed the financial markets five years ago as a ticket to an unlimited champagne party.
Well, we've finally arrived.