Equities have seen a strong recovery since late March, with risk sentiment stabilising despite lingering macro uncertainty. However, momentum signals are beginning to show signs of fatigue.
Technical Lens:
The move off the 30th March lows has been impulsive and well-structured, with price respecting a clean rising channel. This suggests controlled upside so far.
That said, momentum is no longer confirming price. The RSI is printing a clear bearish divergence, with lower highs forming while price continues to push higher within the channel. This typically signals slowing upside strength rather than immediate reversal, but it does shift focus towards potential exhaustion.
Scenarios:
* If the channel continues to hold → price may grind higher, but with weakening momentum, upside could remain limited and corrective in nature.
* If the channel breaks to the downside → this would signal a loss of structure, opening the path for a deeper pullback towards the anchored VWAP from the March lows.
Catalysts:
Upcoming macro data and central bank expectations remain key, particularly anything that shifts rate expectations or risk sentiment in equities.
Takeaway:
The rising channel is the key structure to watch. A breakdown would suggest the March rally is losing steam, with the anchored VWAP acting as a natural magnet below.
Technical Lens:
The move off the 30th March lows has been impulsive and well-structured, with price respecting a clean rising channel. This suggests controlled upside so far.
That said, momentum is no longer confirming price. The RSI is printing a clear bearish divergence, with lower highs forming while price continues to push higher within the channel. This typically signals slowing upside strength rather than immediate reversal, but it does shift focus towards potential exhaustion.
Scenarios:
* If the channel continues to hold → price may grind higher, but with weakening momentum, upside could remain limited and corrective in nature.
* If the channel breaks to the downside → this would signal a loss of structure, opening the path for a deeper pullback towards the anchored VWAP from the March lows.
Catalysts:
Upcoming macro data and central bank expectations remain key, particularly anything that shifts rate expectations or risk sentiment in equities.
Takeaway:
The rising channel is the key structure to watch. A breakdown would suggest the March rally is losing steam, with the anchored VWAP acting as a natural magnet below.
Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment; ensure you fully understand the risks involved.
-
Use your TradingView charts to trade your Alchemy account: bit.ly/42vUfjL
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Use your TradingView charts to trade your Alchemy account: bit.ly/42vUfjL
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Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment; ensure you fully understand the risks involved.
-
Use your TradingView charts to trade your Alchemy account: bit.ly/42vUfjL
-
Use your TradingView charts to trade your Alchemy account: bit.ly/42vUfjL
相关出版物
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并非旨在提供，也不构成TradingView提供或认可的任何形式的财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议或推荐。请阅读使用条款了解更多信息。