📉 Powell cutting rates? 100% priced in. Even talk of 1–2% slashes. But why would he?
Let’s look at what the media ignores:
🇮🇳 Reports suggest India plans to cut its US Treasury holdings by up to 50% by 2025. That could mean roughly $450B hitting the market. Who’s going to buy that debt? The Fed? They’re already running negative equity — something that would be called insolvency for any private company.
Lowering rates would allow the US government (and its billionaire buddies) to borrow even more cheap money — not to fix the economy, but to speculate, pump Bitcoin, and trash the dollar further. Inflation? Even worse.
The US economy shows all the symptoms of a recession: layoffs rising, real wages falling, manufacturing shrinking. Official GDP numbers still look positive, but let’s not forget those “revisions” that always come later. Translation: the data is constantly massaged.
So what’s the real goal? Probably to juice the housing market. But let’s be honest: US mortgage rates today are just average by historical standards. Russia’s rates are higher, yet their currency and balance sheet look healthier because they don’t live off endless money printing.
The core problem is clear: reckless dollar printing to protect billionaire portfolios. And Powell? If he truly had conviction, he wouldn’t touch the rate at all.
Let’s look at what the media ignores:
🇮🇳 Reports suggest India plans to cut its US Treasury holdings by up to 50% by 2025. That could mean roughly $450B hitting the market. Who’s going to buy that debt? The Fed? They’re already running negative equity — something that would be called insolvency for any private company.
Lowering rates would allow the US government (and its billionaire buddies) to borrow even more cheap money — not to fix the economy, but to speculate, pump Bitcoin, and trash the dollar further. Inflation? Even worse.
The US economy shows all the symptoms of a recession: layoffs rising, real wages falling, manufacturing shrinking. Official GDP numbers still look positive, but let’s not forget those “revisions” that always come later. Translation: the data is constantly massaged.
So what’s the real goal? Probably to juice the housing market. But let’s be honest: US mortgage rates today are just average by historical standards. Russia’s rates are higher, yet their currency and balance sheet look healthier because they don’t live off endless money printing.
The core problem is clear: reckless dollar printing to protect billionaire portfolios. And Powell? If he truly had conviction, he wouldn’t touch the rate at all.
交易开始
September 2025 FOMC – The Fed cuts rates by 25 bps.1 dissent favored a 50 bps cut.
6 officials see no further cuts after this move.
9 officials project 2 additional cuts.
1 official calls for 5 more cuts this year (likely Waller).
Trump pressure did work, but no 0.5 or more. No green candle.
交易结束：到达目标
Well, it’s clear now that Powell cut rates more to ease tensions with Trump than to address the economy. The next cuts will likely only come next year. This uncertainty triggered a bearish move, so it’s time to close this idea.
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这些信息和出版物并非旨在提供，也不构成TradingView提供或认可的任何形式的财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议或推荐。请阅读使用条款了解更多信息。