Logic: "that's a strong trend, price action is strong, therefor it will fly. There's also probability aspect to it, there's a high probability, though volatility ahead".
Fallacy: People forget that Price=Supply:Demand. You see a trend, learn to recognize patterns. But PRICE or the driver is the daily S/D function.
In strong trends, you have a combo of 1) people not selling. 2) strong demand. Price rallies.
//bottom line: A) you should probably learn these high probability patterns, setups. but still B) trade based on S/D function.
S/D is cyclical. hence somewhat predictable... ?
Fallacy: People forget that Price=Supply:Demand. You see a trend, learn to recognize patterns. But PRICE or the driver is the daily S/D function.
In strong trends, you have a combo of 1) people not selling. 2) strong demand. Price rallies.
//bottom line: A) you should probably learn these high probability patterns, setups. but still B) trade based on S/D function.
S/D is cyclical. hence somewhat predictable... ?
注释
another one is we are wired to look based on recency注释
example. Cognitive expectation was "(market goes) up" and/or market bias was "up". Price went red... -> people are reactive. Sell off follows. but predictable. if you think in S/D.
注释
Last session: market dropped and bounced, showing bullish bias (UP direction). Now it shows "peak" bias. When you bought last session for longterm (cyclical), like bitcoin assets, you are forced to sell at a loss due to mid term risks (depends how aggressive you trade?)
when markets are "reactive" and follow the feedback --> it proves you can predict market because one of it's forces is herd mentality. 🐑
There's a good book I recently discovered about mental game, called "The Mental Game of Trading by Jared Tendler", which shows how improving emotional game or mental game can almost be an edge. One example do be --> if our mental game is weak or emotions volatile -> it make sense to liquidate during this session open. It means with strong emotional game or mental game - there do be opportunities if we just wait 30min or 2hr in the market open?
(due to the VIX wedge... market wont fall or peak... it will bounce on the support. But it's not worth to hold last sessions positions (if agg risk).. and people have weak mental games, which means people get shaken out.. )
It probably also means --- there are very few spots or points on the charts or timing, where markets move with ease, everyone agrees on the direction - and people are less fearful? (ie longterm, demand is stacked on these few spots. Like.. VCP patterns, tight ranges etc).
注释
why 30mins or 2hrs? because if u are like me, you react to market open (new info). but market open rush only lasts 30min... then demand fades.
if VIX has an wedge with 50-50 bias, it's doubtful spx can rally here? -> it's probabilistic it rallies during the open. 30mins and then it fades or reverses -> which creates panic in opposite direction? (ie herd mentality 🐑.. explained by the mental game concepts (at an aggregate level, people are emotional and impatient.. fearful...)).
注释
Key message: Supply-Demand means "price". 注释
only exception to this rule -- if demand is so strong, u cant deny it. (which means VIX wedge no longer relevant? etc). Demand still fades 30min after open.
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Tactically: if you are an aggressive trader like me. You want to be (enter) on the spots where 1) People dont sell. 2) Demand shows up or is high (ie demand is not absent), 3) Price can only go UP. not side ways.. not volatile. One way. which means if the vix trades within an wedge (log trend), that gives you 50-50 odds. which means not a ONE way trade. Or one direction only market.
(The core for that trade is the mechanism of S/D. not the pattern. Pattern can be misleading - or you assume things and lose due to logical fallacies).
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25mins in. The result.
herd mentality.
it actually shows how "mental game" or "emotional game" can be an edge..
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Bitcoin, Three weekly candles - high probability - if confirmed by demand and price action.
Double bottom reversal.
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same with FAANG. 3 weekly cancles -> high probability. (in next week? option expiry week).
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💡 bull market bounces or correlate with upsloping 50dmas.
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if you look how markets behave long term basis around 50/200 cycle, u can easily figure out simple, basic swing positions (cyclical). //aka strategizing around these swings.
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*if u know macro.注释
"3) Price can only go UP. not side ways.. not volatile. One way."**be with the trend right before it goes off. with only direction (up.. or down if confirmed.. but odds favoring upside).
(By knowing principle of S/D and logic fallacies (confirmation biases)).
注释
*which is the only tactical place where you have edge. ie small profit situations exhaust our mental resources and are not sustainable compared to dominant (winning) positions, if it make sense.注释
with
BLOK position like this. also probably top1% sector based on performance but not on relative technicals to spx. (Winning combo do be winning relative technical + top1% performance?) ->
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IREN looks better than
MSTR or $BLOK.. MSTR looks the same as BTC. I guess based on momentum principles, IREN is a better pick than MSTR? even when MSTR has more room to run to the upside? but IREN can fly more easier once ATH. 注释
maybe MSTR has wings to like 70%.. then there's no way it gets past the previous "lows"? aka VWAP principles.
注释
based on "price cycle", 20dma should work as a trailing resistance? that creates a sell off (herd 🐑)?
based on weekly. BTC should have less resistance around end of month, beginning of march?
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