As of December 9, here are the main support and resistance levels as informed by smart money order flow (darkpool and block prints over $1 million). The white trendline is the one that has connected all the major peaks in 2022. The yellow trendline has acted as support from the October low, until it was broken on 12/6. A few things to keep in mind:
- $5.9B of prints following Powell's speech on 11/30 and the following day, at around SPY $407. This has been the intermediate peak so far over the last few months. We can likely conclude that this is smart money selling, and will probably be a significant point of resistance.
- At the end of the day today we got $1.7B of prints at SPY 393, the low of the day. There's also a lot of technical support in this area. Price has bounced off this level numerous times. Therefore, in my opinion, these prints are likely smart money buying for a push higher during what is statistically one of the strongest times of the year.
- The point of control (price at which trading volume is highest) is around SPY 395. That's the POC for the last two weeks, as well as the POC for the entirety of 2022. It's also roughly halfway between the white trendline and the November CPI gap. Overall, this is a pretty neutral spot going into next week's CPI release and FOMC meeting.
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