I know there are a lot of people calling for a crash right here, and while I do think we end up getting one, I think there's one last move higher above $700 first.
I think we need to squeeze out the shorts and convince everyone the next leg is starting before we see a move down.
I do think after we hit and reject one of the upper resistances, that it will set up a great short opportunity.
The trigger for the short will be UVIX to hit it's lower support levels combined with SPY hitting it's upper resistances.
Don't know what will cause the move, but I think it'll likely happen even faster than the April move.
So be prepared to exit as we approach the highs or set tight stop losses.
I think we need to squeeze out the shorts and convince everyone the next leg is starting before we see a move down.
I do think after we hit and reject one of the upper resistances, that it will set up a great short opportunity.
The trigger for the short will be UVIX to hit it's lower support levels combined with SPY hitting it's upper resistances.
Don't know what will cause the move, but I think it'll likely happen even faster than the April move.
So be prepared to exit as we approach the highs or set tight stop losses.
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Looking like a short term bottom here at $663注释
Still thinking we go higher unless we break the lower support level on the chart. Base case is a powerful rally into the highs on the chart aka a "blowoff top."Vix is still not looking like a larger selloff is going to take place. We're close, but I don't think we get it until December or after Dec Opex.
Vix rejecting at resistance here. We've had 3 tests of the $27 level now, the next test of that level should break it, but typically 3 touches creates a powerful move in the opposite direction. If that happens, the index should have a powerful move into the highs.
I lean towards a strong rally tomorrow into next week or consolidation until the first and a rally after that. The only thing that would change my bias is VIX breaking the $27 level or SPY breaking the $652-654 supports and closing below them.
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So far, so good. A break of $676 opens up higher to $700+ and same supports need to hold otherwise it starts a bigger move down.Vix did indeed bounce from the key level and is now down 13%. Again, as long as that level holds as resistance, we should see a powerful move in the opposite direction and SPY should move higher.
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$676 level tested today. Let's see where we go tomorrow. Everything still looking good for higher and everyone still bearish despite price continuing to move up.注释
End of day update: Closing above all important levels. Next stop $689, and if we break that $700+. I like the level $711 as a potential high and it could happen as soon as next week.注释
Started buying $700C for 12/31注释
ATH break. Let's see if we can break $700 now by Monday. 注释
Alright, not sure if we see $700+ anymore, I'm holding some calls for tomorrow just incase, but I think most likely they expire worthless. We broke above resistance briefly and now have closed underneath it. Price turned down after the pivot, so I'm being cautious going forward and want to continue seeing how price plays out over the next coming weeks. I started accumulating some Uvix for 2 months out just incase we do see a bearish move.
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Chart looking like today may be a local bottom. If price can hold into next week, could setup the final leg higher.注释
Broke resistance and ATH now. Let's see how we close.注释
Retested support. Still bullish until we lose $689 and close under it.注释
Okay caution is warranted now. This could be the start of the larger move down.交易开始
Closed all of my longs and added volatility exposure at open.注释
Possible we see a squeeze here. Maybe we finally see $700+? TBD. If we do get it, it should be a bull trap that gets us selling lower after.Just a lot of chop... not worth trading it. Going to remain in cash and add to volatility calls if we get a move higher.
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Friday was the bull trap. Think we just continue down from here.注释
Alright, today might've been the end of the short term move now that we've tested $660. Think we can see a rally over the next two weeks, but if we do, you'll want to sell it as it should be the final rally before the large move.注释
Bought calls at open for 4/2注释
Starting to wonder if this rally extends to the upper targets (new highs), then goes to new lows. That would be the most painful outcome for the masses, so I like the idea. Still playing the long side here, mainly through MARA calls and some calls on GOOG and NVDA that I bought in the past 2 days. I think i'll flip short again closer to vixperation next week. But let's see if this plays out, would create a very good setup to short.I think the Vix spike happens in May or June. If we hit the upper targets, that will be the best entry for the VIX.
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So far so good. New highs it is. Targets above are my final targets. Starting to scale into May and June UVIX calls while also keeping my longs.
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Alright we hit the first resistance, I expect a pullback now before we get to the final level. Buy the next pullback for the final move up. We should find support between $666-688. Then should see a final massive move up. Then I'll be scaling into the rest of my UVIX calls.
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We should see one final move higher tomorrow and then I think that's likely it for SPY. I'm exiting equity calls and I'm loading up on UVIX calls here for the next leg down. If we're going to see a large selloff, it should happen soon.注释
Upside target hit today. Just like on the downside it's possible to overshoot, but I'm taking my positioning to max UVIX calls over the next few days.
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