Update of the related idea from 25.01.2026
First part worked out perfectly.
It needs a little redrawing.
Latest notes from the previous idea:
Oil and gas companies focused on exports have significant foreign currency revenue.
At the same time, they pay corporate income tax (rate 25% from 2025, previously 20%).
The base is taxable profit under RAS (revenue minus expenses, including MET as costs).
Declaration — new form from 2026 (Federal Tax Service Order).
For the year — until March 25 of the following year (for 2025 — until 25.03.2026).
Reporting periods: quarterly (by the 25th after the quarter) or monthly (if they pay advances based on actual profit — by the 25th of the following month).
Also, the weakening of the ruble (growth of the dollar/euro exchange rate) increases ruble revenue from exports → taxable profit grows.
In the 2025 reporting, the strengthening of the ruble (the ruble rose against the dollar by ~20–25%) led to positive exchange rate differences, which helped to show profit under RAS (a decrease in the ruble amount of foreign currency debt reduced expenses).
In short, when Sechin and Miller submitted their reports, after the 20th there is no point in keeping the currency rate strong.
A weak ruble is beneficial for hydrocarbon exports.
A strong ruble is beneficial for reporting.
Will you say “coincidence”? Possibly. But our goal as traders is to look for recurring “coincidences” in order to make money.
Technically, I redrew it a bit. I am not expecting a fall.
The goal of our oligarchs is to maximize earnings on exports.
High oil prices will push towards ruble weakening.
The conflict with Iran contributes to this.
The correction worked out at 61.8% as per the ascending trend.
Extension target — 91.1187
Possible correction to 86.22 (as in a strong trend)
Possible weakening to 95 rubles.
After the first of April, FNB statistics will be released.
We are also monitoring the development of the conflict in Iran.
First part worked out perfectly.
It needs a little redrawing.
Latest notes from the previous idea:
Oil and gas companies focused on exports have significant foreign currency revenue.
At the same time, they pay corporate income tax (rate 25% from 2025, previously 20%).
The base is taxable profit under RAS (revenue minus expenses, including MET as costs).
Declaration — new form from 2026 (Federal Tax Service Order).
For the year — until March 25 of the following year (for 2025 — until 25.03.2026).
Reporting periods: quarterly (by the 25th after the quarter) or monthly (if they pay advances based on actual profit — by the 25th of the following month).
Also, the weakening of the ruble (growth of the dollar/euro exchange rate) increases ruble revenue from exports → taxable profit grows.
In the 2025 reporting, the strengthening of the ruble (the ruble rose against the dollar by ~20–25%) led to positive exchange rate differences, which helped to show profit under RAS (a decrease in the ruble amount of foreign currency debt reduced expenses).
In short, when Sechin and Miller submitted their reports, after the 20th there is no point in keeping the currency rate strong.
A weak ruble is beneficial for hydrocarbon exports.
A strong ruble is beneficial for reporting.
Will you say “coincidence”? Possibly. But our goal as traders is to look for recurring “coincidences” in order to make money.
Technically, I redrew it a bit. I am not expecting a fall.
The goal of our oligarchs is to maximize earnings on exports.
High oil prices will push towards ruble weakening.
The conflict with Iran contributes to this.
The correction worked out at 61.8% as per the ascending trend.
Extension target — 91.1187
Possible correction to 86.22 (as in a strong trend)
Possible weakening to 95 rubles.
After the first of April, FNB statistics will be released.
We are also monitoring the development of the conflict in Iran.
交易开始
🙂 In early April, the dollar was trading around 80–81 ₽, and by April 10–13 it had fallen to 76.97–77.84 ₽ (according to the official CBR rate). This is a noticeable strengthening of the ruble over a short period.🔴 Main reasons
➡️ Sharp inflow of export foreign currency revenue due to high oil prices
The war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March–early April sharply raised oil prices. Urals reached a 13-year high of $116 per barrel (April 2, Primorsk port), while Brent rose above $95–103 (on April 13 — $102.77). Revenue from February–March deliveries (with a lag of 1.5–2 months) is actively entering the market precisely in April. Exporters are selling currency, creating strong supply of dollars and yuans. This is the main fundamental driver.
➡️ Suspension of the Ministry of Finance's operations under the budget rule
Since March (and officially until July 1, 2026 🗓), the Ministry of Finance has completely stopped purchases of foreign currency and gold for the National Wealth Fund (NWF). In the normal situation, with high oil prices, the state acted as a major buyer of currency (up to 10–12 billion ₽ per day), which restrained ruble strengthening. Now this demand has disappeared, and all additional exporter revenue goes directly to the market — a strong pro-ruble factor.
➡️ Tax period (April peak of payments)
Exporters (especially oil and gas 🛢) are massively selling currency to pay mineral extraction tax (MET), additional income tax on hydrocarbon production, and the unified tax payment ( 😐 large amounts are expected around April 28 ⏰). This creates an additional surplus of currency supply on the exchange. The factor is traditional, but in combination with record oil prices — especially powerful.
➡️ High key rate of the Bank of Russia
The rate remains at 15% (as of April 13, 2026). It continues to restrain ruble lending, limits demand for currency from importers and the population, and it is more profitable for exporters to hold and place rubles. The next CBR meeting is on April 24, analysts expect a possible small reduction (to 14.5%) 🗓, but for now the rate works in favor of a strong ruble.
🔖 Additional nuances
The mandatory sale of part of the foreign currency revenue by exporters formally remains in effect until April 30, 2026 🗓 (the requirement for repatriation and sale), although the actual standard for some exporters may have been reduced to zero — the real impact of this measure is ambiguous.
The geopolitical background (expectations of negotiations, stabilization on certain days) sometimes gave a short-term impulse, but is not the main reason for the strengthening.
In March, the ruble weakened partly due to the absence of currency sales by the Ministry of Finance and seasonal growth in currency demand. In April, these factors intensified in the opposite direction.
👀 Overall, the chart did not confirm, I rushed with the forecast for a rebound, it happens... We make a note, remember it, and move on...
There will be a chance to buy $ cheaper earlier than previously planned.
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