Summary: Key Drivers of Thai Baht Depreciation in October 2025
Weak export and tourism recovery: Thailand’s export sector remains sluggish amid global economic slowdown, while inbound tourism—especially from China—has yet to fully rebound.
Monetary policy expectations: Market anticipates a potential rate cut by the Bank of Thailand to support domestic growth, reducing the relative attractiveness of Thai assets.
Global uncertainty and USD strength: Ongoing volatility in global markets and mixed signals from U.S. economic policy have led to cautious capital flows, contributing to short-term baht weakness.
We have revised our USD/THB forecast range for October 2025 to 32.09–33.28 baht per US dollar.
Weak export and tourism recovery: Thailand’s export sector remains sluggish amid global economic slowdown, while inbound tourism—especially from China—has yet to fully rebound.
Monetary policy expectations: Market anticipates a potential rate cut by the Bank of Thailand to support domestic growth, reducing the relative attractiveness of Thai assets.
Global uncertainty and USD strength: Ongoing volatility in global markets and mixed signals from U.S. economic policy have led to cautious capital flows, contributing to short-term baht weakness.
We have revised our USD/THB forecast range for October 2025 to 32.09–33.28 baht per US dollar.
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