GOLD’s Fundamental Outlook

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XAUUSD Gold is still camping around the $4,000 mark, but I’m still not seeing enough from the bulls.

Right now, Gold isn’t calling the shots. The Dollar DXY is.

The US and Iran situation keeps heating up, and every new headline puts the Strait of Hormuz right back in focus. Oil catches a bid, inflation worries come back, and suddenly the market starts talking about higher rates all over again.

That’s the problem for XAUUSD Gold.

As long as traders believe inflation sticks around, the Fed has every reason to stay hawkish. Right now, the market is leaning toward at least two more rate hikes before year end, with September looking like a real possibility.

That keeps the Dollar in the driver’s seat.

Normally, this kind of geopolitical tension would have Gold ripping higher. But this time the market seems a lot more focused on higher yields and a stronger Dollar than chasing safe havens.

For me, the story hasn’t changed.

Unless something shifts with the Fed or the Dollar finally starts rolling over, I still think every pop is a selling opportunity. The $3,950 area is still very much on my radar. 📉

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