XAUUSD has broken below its short-term rising channel after facing repeated rejection at the bearish trend line, indicating that sellers hold the short-term advantage. However, the 4,076 level represents a confluence of a demand zone and a previous breakout area, making it a notable support level. Should the price drop to this area and show a clear signal of rejection against further declines, a rebound toward 4,129 is entirely possible.
Fundamentally, gold remains supported by a weakening US dollar and safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical risks. However, expectations that the Fed will maintain high interest rates mean buying pressure is currently insufficient to trigger an immediate uptrend. This aligns with a scenario where the price corrects to support levels before gathering fresh bullish momentum.
The preferred scenario involves waiting for the price to test the 4,076 level and form a signal confirming a bullish reversal. If this level holds, XAUUSD could rebound to 4,129 while retesting the previously broken bearish trend line.
Invalidation scenario: If the price closes below 4,076 on the H1 timeframe, the support level will be breached, increasing the risk of an extended decline toward lower demand zones.
Fundamentally, gold remains supported by a weakening US dollar and safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical risks. However, expectations that the Fed will maintain high interest rates mean buying pressure is currently insufficient to trigger an immediate uptrend. This aligns with a scenario where the price corrects to support levels before gathering fresh bullish momentum.
The preferred scenario involves waiting for the price to test the 4,076 level and form a signal confirming a bullish reversal. If this level holds, XAUUSD could rebound to 4,129 while retesting the previously broken bearish trend line.
Invalidation scenario: If the price closes below 4,076 on the H1 timeframe, the support level will be breached, increasing the risk of an extended decline toward lower demand zones.
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