I still see the market as more bearish-neutral rather than bullish.
Why?
We still have a clear sequence of lower highs
The descending trendline is still holding
Every rebound is becoming weaker
Bullish candles lack strong follow-through
The EMA200 is still acting as dynamic pressure above price
In addition:
The 0.5 Fibonacci zone (~4422) has not been reclaimed aggressively
Price reactions are slow and overlapping
The structure looks more like distribution/compression rather than true bullish accumulation
Very important:
The triangle structure is starting to compress volatility.
This type of compression usually leads to a strong impulsive move afterward.
What would I personally do?
I would NOT buy in the middle of compression
I would wait for breakout confirmation
BUY scenario:
A Daily close, or at least a strong H4 close above the descending trendline
Then a higher low formation
Followed by continuation above 4700
Only then would the long setup become cleaner.
SELL scenario:
Clear loss of the 4500-4450 level
Strong bearish impulse candles
In that case, the 4200–4000 zone becomes highly probable
Right now, honestly?
The market feels like a “dead zone” where traders are getting trapped on both sides.
If I had to choose a directional bias right now:
I would still lean slightly bearish until the descending trendline gets invalidated.
Especially because:
The candle structure still does not show a healthy reversal
It looks more like a weak correction inside a larger downtrend.
Why?
We still have a clear sequence of lower highs
The descending trendline is still holding
Every rebound is becoming weaker
Bullish candles lack strong follow-through
The EMA200 is still acting as dynamic pressure above price
In addition:
The 0.5 Fibonacci zone (~4422) has not been reclaimed aggressively
Price reactions are slow and overlapping
The structure looks more like distribution/compression rather than true bullish accumulation
Very important:
The triangle structure is starting to compress volatility.
This type of compression usually leads to a strong impulsive move afterward.
What would I personally do?
I would NOT buy in the middle of compression
I would wait for breakout confirmation
BUY scenario:
A Daily close, or at least a strong H4 close above the descending trendline
Then a higher low formation
Followed by continuation above 4700
Only then would the long setup become cleaner.
SELL scenario:
Clear loss of the 4500-4450 level
Strong bearish impulse candles
In that case, the 4200–4000 zone becomes highly probable
Right now, honestly?
The market feels like a “dead zone” where traders are getting trapped on both sides.
If I had to choose a directional bias right now:
I would still lean slightly bearish until the descending trendline gets invalidated.
Especially because:
The candle structure still does not show a healthy reversal
It looks more like a weak correction inside a larger downtrend.
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免责声明
这些信息和出版物并非旨在提供，也不构成TradingView提供或认可的任何形式的财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议或推荐。请阅读使用条款了解更多信息。