The divergence in expectations for rate cuts has intensified: Although the CME "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of a rate cut in December remains around 70%, recent statements from Fed officials have become more cautious, emphasizing the need to observe the persistence of inflation. Market doubts about the pace of easing have risen, and the logic of rate cuts that previously supported gold has weakened marginally.
Stable US Treasury yields support the dollar: The 10-year US Treasury yield has stabilized at 4.074%, with a slight decrease of 0.016 basis points compared to yesterday. The stabilization of yields has reduced the attractiveness of gold for allocation; at the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield spread between the US and Japan remains at a high level of 233.8 basis points, supporting the resilience of the US dollar index and indirectly suppressing the rebound space of gold.
Inflation expectations carry hidden risks: The market expects that the year-on-year CPI in the US in September may rise to 3.1%, a new high since May 2024. Coupled with the recent increase in oil price volatility, the risk of inflation stickiness may further constrain the space for the Fed to ease, providing fundamental support to the bears.
Today's gold trading strategy
sell：3970-3980
tp:3955-3940
sl:3910
Stable US Treasury yields support the dollar: The 10-year US Treasury yield has stabilized at 4.074%, with a slight decrease of 0.016 basis points compared to yesterday. The stabilization of yields has reduced the attractiveness of gold for allocation; at the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield spread between the US and Japan remains at a high level of 233.8 basis points, supporting the resilience of the US dollar index and indirectly suppressing the rebound space of gold.
Inflation expectations carry hidden risks: The market expects that the year-on-year CPI in the US in September may rise to 3.1%, a new high since May 2024. Coupled with the recent increase in oil price volatility, the risk of inflation stickiness may further constrain the space for the Fed to ease, providing fundamental support to the bears.
Today's gold trading strategy
sell：3970-3980
tp:3955-3940
sl:3910
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免责声明
这些信息和出版物并非旨在提供，也不构成TradingView提供或认可的任何形式的财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议或推荐。请阅读使用条款了解更多信息。