DXY is showing signs of weakness, and with ongoing political uncertainty, gold could test and potentially break above 5200 this week.
There are two likely scenarios.
Institutional interest appears strong following last week’s sell-off, but positioning is crowded, which could lead to a shakeout depending on Monday’s market open.
Scenario 1
involves a test of the 5200 level. If the breakout fails, gold could retreat toward 5100–5050, an area with strong support and multiple previous rejections. In this case, a short position could be considered with a stop loss at 5226 and a take profit around 5100, potentially extending to 5085 with a trailing stop. If the price shows a strong rejection wick, closing the trade early may be prudent.
Scenario 2
envisions a liquidity sweep above 5200, potentially reaching 5200–5270, followed by a pullback to 5100–5150 before continuing the broader upward trend. This is due to the high participation in terest in those prize zones that need to be adressed before the next major move. This move would shake out weak hands and reduce overcrowding before the next leg higher.
Monitoring developments in oil and Iran is important, as these can influence DXY movement, which in turn impacts gold.
Conclusion -
Long-term, the bias remains bullish, with strong support below and potential for higher highs if resistance is cleared.
Comment what you think about this take.
Happy hunting.
There are two likely scenarios.
Institutional interest appears strong following last week’s sell-off, but positioning is crowded, which could lead to a shakeout depending on Monday’s market open.
Scenario 1
involves a test of the 5200 level. If the breakout fails, gold could retreat toward 5100–5050, an area with strong support and multiple previous rejections. In this case, a short position could be considered with a stop loss at 5226 and a take profit around 5100, potentially extending to 5085 with a trailing stop. If the price shows a strong rejection wick, closing the trade early may be prudent.
Scenario 2
envisions a liquidity sweep above 5200, potentially reaching 5200–5270, followed by a pullback to 5100–5150 before continuing the broader upward trend. This is due to the high participation in terest in those prize zones that need to be adressed before the next major move. This move would shake out weak hands and reduce overcrowding before the next leg higher.
Monitoring developments in oil and Iran is important, as these can influence DXY movement, which in turn impacts gold.
Conclusion -
Long-term, the bias remains bullish, with strong support below and potential for higher highs if resistance is cleared.
Comment what you think about this take.
Happy hunting.
交易开始
Price touched the 5200 area and pushed down to 5100 as scenario 1 mentioned. how the price hold at this level will define the next move
交易结束：到达目标
closed my sell trade at 5055. 
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