XAUUSD — 4,500 Is the Real Test
Gold is trying to recover, but this is not the type of chart where I want to get emotional too early.
After the strong selloff from the late-August high, price broke the clean bullish structure and started building a wider bearish correction. That bigger damage is still there. But now gold is holding around the 4,350 area, and more importantly, price closed back above the 100-day SMA zone near 4,320. That tells me buyers are not fully gone yet.
The macro side also supports this pause. USD is trading more quietly as oil prices and US Treasury yields ease, while RSI on the daily chart is sitting in a more neutral zone. In simple words, sellers still have the bigger structure, but they are not pushing with the same strength right now.
From an SMC view, the current recovery looks like a move from the bullish OB / demand area around 4,250 - 4,290. As long as price holds above 4,320 - 4,330, I think gold can continue climbing toward the internal supply and bearish mitigation block around 4,460 - 4,500.
But here is the trap: a push into 4,480 - 4,500 does not automatically mean gold is bullish again. That area is exactly where sellers may try to reload. It is also close to the previous broken structure, so late buyers can easily get caught if price rejects there.
My main view is short-term bullish recovery while gold holds above 4,320, but I will treat 4,460 - 4,500 as the real decision zone. If buyers reclaim that area cleanly, gold can open a wider recovery toward 4,600 - 4,635. But if price rejects from there, the market may rotate back down toward 4,300 and possibly 4,250 again.
Key Price Zones to Watch
Current reaction area: 4,350 - 4,365
Main support / 100-day SMA area: 4,320 - 4,330
Bullish OB / demand zone: 4,250 - 4,290
Internal supply / bearish mitigation block: 4,460 - 4,500
HTF bearish OB: 4,630 - 4,690
Major downside support: 4,030 - 4,060
Bullish confirmation: clean reclaim above 4,500
Bearish rejection signal: failure around 4,460 - 4,500
Invalidation for recovery: clean break and hold below 4,320
Do you think gold can reclaim 4,500, or is this recovery only setting up another sell reaction from supply?
Gold is trying to recover, but this is not the type of chart where I want to get emotional too early.
After the strong selloff from the late-August high, price broke the clean bullish structure and started building a wider bearish correction. That bigger damage is still there. But now gold is holding around the 4,350 area, and more importantly, price closed back above the 100-day SMA zone near 4,320. That tells me buyers are not fully gone yet.
The macro side also supports this pause. USD is trading more quietly as oil prices and US Treasury yields ease, while RSI on the daily chart is sitting in a more neutral zone. In simple words, sellers still have the bigger structure, but they are not pushing with the same strength right now.
From an SMC view, the current recovery looks like a move from the bullish OB / demand area around 4,250 - 4,290. As long as price holds above 4,320 - 4,330, I think gold can continue climbing toward the internal supply and bearish mitigation block around 4,460 - 4,500.
But here is the trap: a push into 4,480 - 4,500 does not automatically mean gold is bullish again. That area is exactly where sellers may try to reload. It is also close to the previous broken structure, so late buyers can easily get caught if price rejects there.
My main view is short-term bullish recovery while gold holds above 4,320, but I will treat 4,460 - 4,500 as the real decision zone. If buyers reclaim that area cleanly, gold can open a wider recovery toward 4,600 - 4,635. But if price rejects from there, the market may rotate back down toward 4,300 and possibly 4,250 again.
Key Price Zones to Watch
Current reaction area: 4,350 - 4,365
Main support / 100-day SMA area: 4,320 - 4,330
Bullish OB / demand zone: 4,250 - 4,290
Internal supply / bearish mitigation block: 4,460 - 4,500
HTF bearish OB: 4,630 - 4,690
Major downside support: 4,030 - 4,060
Bullish confirmation: clean reclaim above 4,500
Bearish rejection signal: failure around 4,460 - 4,500
Invalidation for recovery: clean break and hold below 4,320
Do you think gold can reclaim 4,500, or is this recovery only setting up another sell reaction from supply?
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👉 5–7 Free One-Shot Signals Weekly
👉 Daily Market Plan & Bias
🔥 VIP: 4–6 Swings + 10–20 Scalps Daily
📈 Transparent results, clear setups
👉Click here: t.me/+FgX34kKeY0cyZjc1
👉 Daily Market Plan & Bias
🔥 VIP: 4–6 Swings + 10–20 Scalps Daily
📈 Transparent results, clear setups
👉Click here: t.me/+FgX34kKeY0cyZjc1
相关出版物
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并非旨在提供，也不构成TradingView提供或认可的任何形式的财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议或推荐。请阅读使用条款了解更多信息。