Gold begins the new month under persistent bearish pressure, with price continuing to respect the long-term descending trendline that has capped every meaningful recovery over recent weeks.
From a macro perspective, the broader outlook remains unchanged. Capital continues to favor the U.S. Dollar as markets increasingly price in a prolonged hawkish Federal Reserve. While inflation has moderated from previous highs, it remains elevated enough to keep policymakers cautious. With July's Nonfarm Payrolls approaching and expectations for another firm Fed stance still on the table, investors remain reluctant to rotate aggressively back into gold.
Although short-term rebounds may occur as sellers take profits and liquidity builds around key support levels, these moves currently appear corrective rather than the beginning of a new bullish cycle. Unless macro conditions shift meaningfully, rallies are likely to attract fresh selling interest rather than sustained buying.
Technically, gold continues to trade within its established bearish structure. Price is reacting around the lower boundary of the descending trendline, but the overall market structure remains intact. The first recovery zone is located around the 40xx Demand + Fibonacci resistance cluster. As long as this area holds, the preferred scenario remains selling into strength, targeting a continuation toward the 38xx liquidity zone.
If buyers fail to reclaim the major resistance cluster, a confirmed breakdown below current support could accelerate the next bearish leg and expose deeper downside liquidity before any meaningful long-term base can develop.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold remains under bearish control despite entering a new month.
Any recovery toward the 40xx Demand + Fibonacci resistance is viewed as an opportunity for sellers to re-enter the market.
Failure to reclaim the descending trendline would reinforce the broader downtrend and keep the focus on the 38xx liquidity region.
MARKET VIEW
The new month does not change the macro landscape. The U.S. Dollar continues to dominate capital flows while expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve and July's economic data maintain downside pressure on gold. Until the macro narrative weakens, rallies should be treated as corrective moves within a broader bearish trend rather than confirmation of a lasting reversal.
Current Bias: Bearish continuation.
Key Focus: Sell rallies into the 40xx resistance cluster while monitoring the 38xx liquidity zone.
US Session Theme: Strong USD, Fed expectations, and month-opening positioning continue to favor downside pressure on gold.
LucasGrayTrading
From a macro perspective, the broader outlook remains unchanged. Capital continues to favor the U.S. Dollar as markets increasingly price in a prolonged hawkish Federal Reserve. While inflation has moderated from previous highs, it remains elevated enough to keep policymakers cautious. With July's Nonfarm Payrolls approaching and expectations for another firm Fed stance still on the table, investors remain reluctant to rotate aggressively back into gold.
Although short-term rebounds may occur as sellers take profits and liquidity builds around key support levels, these moves currently appear corrective rather than the beginning of a new bullish cycle. Unless macro conditions shift meaningfully, rallies are likely to attract fresh selling interest rather than sustained buying.
Technically, gold continues to trade within its established bearish structure. Price is reacting around the lower boundary of the descending trendline, but the overall market structure remains intact. The first recovery zone is located around the 40xx Demand + Fibonacci resistance cluster. As long as this area holds, the preferred scenario remains selling into strength, targeting a continuation toward the 38xx liquidity zone.
If buyers fail to reclaim the major resistance cluster, a confirmed breakdown below current support could accelerate the next bearish leg and expose deeper downside liquidity before any meaningful long-term base can develop.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold remains under bearish control despite entering a new month.
Any recovery toward the 40xx Demand + Fibonacci resistance is viewed as an opportunity for sellers to re-enter the market.
Failure to reclaim the descending trendline would reinforce the broader downtrend and keep the focus on the 38xx liquidity region.
MARKET VIEW
The new month does not change the macro landscape. The U.S. Dollar continues to dominate capital flows while expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve and July's economic data maintain downside pressure on gold. Until the macro narrative weakens, rallies should be treated as corrective moves within a broader bearish trend rather than confirmation of a lasting reversal.
Current Bias: Bearish continuation.
Key Focus: Sell rallies into the 40xx resistance cluster while monitoring the 38xx liquidity zone.
US Session Theme: Strong USD, Fed expectations, and month-opening positioning continue to favor downside pressure on gold.
LucasGrayTrading
交易开始
UPDATE PLAN 01/07 – ACTIVEGold respected the original bearish scenario almost perfectly. Following a news-driven rebound, price rallied from the 396x support zone to the 411x Demand + Fibonacci resistance cluster, where sellers immediately regained control.
The reaction from this confluence triggered an 800-pip decline, with gold falling back toward the 403x region, reinforcing that the recovery was driven by short-term sentiment rather than a genuine shift in the macro landscape.
The broader bearish structure remains intact. As long as the U.S. Dollar continues to dominate capital flows and Fed expectations stay supportive of higher rates, rallies are still viewed as opportunities to sell into strength rather than signals of a trend reversal.
Current Bias: Bearish continuation remains valid.
LucasGrayTrading
交易结束：到达目标
Gold opened the new month with a strong rally following supportive macro news and a weaker U.S. Dollar. However, the recovery was not enough to change the broader bearish bias.As projected, price reacted precisely from the Trendline + Demand + Fibonacci + FVG resistance cluster, confirming this area as the key decision zone for the current market structure.
The rejection reinforces the view that the recent rally remains corrective unless buyers can produce a decisive breakout above this resistance. Until then, the broader bearish trend remains intact, with pullbacks continuing to provide higher-probability selling opportunities.
Current Bias: Bearish continuation remains valid while price stays below the major resistance cluster.
LucasGrayTrading
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并非旨在提供，也不构成TradingView提供或认可的任何形式的财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议或推荐。请阅读使用条款了解更多信息。
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并非旨在提供，也不构成TradingView提供或认可的任何形式的财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议或推荐。请阅读使用条款了解更多信息。