I can't help but wonder if the software company-turned-covid-smash-hit, is maybe somehow exposed to the "banking crisis". Commodities also continue to show weakness. So if housing is a commodity... well who knows...?
Anyway, the fed is set to make their "decision" on rates in a couple of days. On that note, I understand the temptation to lean into the idea that an interest rate cut might be bullish for housing (and markets overall), and maybe even $Z, but I would urge you to consider:
1. The market sets the rate and the fed follows. This can be shown in any overlay of the fed funds rate and the 10Y.
2. If rates continue to fall, that is probably not a good sign for the economy.
As of right now:
Rates remain suppressed from their October highs
Commodities continue to sell off from their Summer 2022 highs
Banks imploding
Oil on the verge of another collapse
So for now, I am thinking this one will continue to grind lower.
God Bless!
Anyway, the fed is set to make their "decision" on rates in a couple of days. On that note, I understand the temptation to lean into the idea that an interest rate cut might be bullish for housing (and markets overall), and maybe even $Z, but I would urge you to consider:
1. The market sets the rate and the fed follows. This can be shown in any overlay of the fed funds rate and the 10Y.
2. If rates continue to fall, that is probably not a good sign for the economy.
As of right now:
Rates remain suppressed from their October highs
Commodities continue to sell off from their Summer 2022 highs
Banks imploding
Oil on the verge of another collapse
So for now, I am thinking this one will continue to grind lower.
God Bless!
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