t-bonds are primed for lift-off.
we just witnessed the largest decline in the history of the treasury. since march 2020, t-bonds have looked like they’re in a correction. most are calling it five waves down, signaling a deeper bear market. but they’re seeing the surface, not the structure.
i'm building a case that says otherwise.
the five-wave drop from all-time highs? that wasn’t the start of the bear market.
it was the end of wave c in an expanded flat that began in 2016.
most think the t-bond bear market started in 2020.
i’m saying it started in 2016,,,
and if i’m right, it just ended.
---
as the market prices-in future interest rate cuts, fueled by artificial suppression of gas prices and inflation stabilisation, t-bond values will climb throughout this next year.
normally, stocks and bonds move inverse to each other.
not this time.
this time, they move together. 1:1.
why? because the us dollar is about to get wrecked.
quantitative easing is coming back.
liquidity will expand.
the global liquidity index will rise.
the way we make that happen is by crushing the dxy.
---
tldr;
- rate cuts incoming
- making t-bonds go up
- quantitative easing
- nukes the dxy
- making stocks go up [too]
- risk-on environment returns
- risk assets go parabolic
- alt season is triggered.
🌙
we just witnessed the largest decline in the history of the treasury. since march 2020, t-bonds have looked like they’re in a correction. most are calling it five waves down, signaling a deeper bear market. but they’re seeing the surface, not the structure.
i'm building a case that says otherwise.
the five-wave drop from all-time highs? that wasn’t the start of the bear market.
it was the end of wave c in an expanded flat that began in 2016.
most think the t-bond bear market started in 2020.
i’m saying it started in 2016,,,
and if i’m right, it just ended.
---
as the market prices-in future interest rate cuts, fueled by artificial suppression of gas prices and inflation stabilisation, t-bond values will climb throughout this next year.
normally, stocks and bonds move inverse to each other.
not this time.
this time, they move together. 1:1.
why? because the us dollar is about to get wrecked.
quantitative easing is coming back.
liquidity will expand.
the global liquidity index will rise.
the way we make that happen is by crushing the dxy.
---
tldr;
- rate cuts incoming
- making t-bonds go up
- quantitative easing
- nukes the dxy
- making stocks go up [too]
- risk-on environment returns
- risk assets go parabolic
- alt season is triggered.
🌙
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免责声明
这些信息和出版物并非旨在提供，也不构成TradingView提供或认可的任何形式的财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议或推荐。请阅读使用条款了解更多信息。