BTC Gave Back The Breakout. Back Under 63,625.BTC Gave Back The Breakout. Back Under 63,625.
Bitcoin ran to a new recovery high at 64,669 on Friday, then gave the whole move back over the weekend - it is trading at 63,005, back below the 63,625 shelf it had broken through. The breakout that finally cleared the two-week ceiling could not hold it, and price is back inside the range. Volatility is at an extreme with the daily conviction engine dark again, so there is no read on whether this is a healthy pullback or the failed breakout in full. What was a breakout Friday is an unresolved range this morning.
Resistance: 63,625.81-63,796.21 - the shelf, now overhead again
Key resistance: 64,400.89-64,669.42 - Friday's high
Current price: 63,005
Support: 62,459.75 - the level to hold
Key support: 60,556.17-60,423.01 - the range floor
Structural floor: 57,717.55 - the cycle low
Two paths from here:
The pullback holds and the breakout resumes. If price defends 62,459 and reclaims 63,625, the failed-breakout risk clears and Friday's high comes back into view. The recovery structure is still intact above 62,459, and the standing read has been bullish for weeks. A reclaim of 63,625 puts the breakout back on.
The failed breakout resolves down. Price is already back under 63,625 with the daily blind and volatility at the 100th percentile - unstable. A loss of 62,459 confirms the breakout as a trap and opens the 60,556-60,423 range floor. Below 63,625 with no daily read, this stays two-sided into 62,459.
For two weeks 63,625 was the ceiling; Friday price finally broke it and by Monday it had handed it all back. That round trip is the whole story - a level that took this many attempts to break, failing on the first hold, keeps the range intact. 62,459 below and 63,625 above are the lines that decide it, and until one goes, this is a range, not a trend.
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Study, not financial advice. XAUUUSD -1 CPIHi, I'm Maicol, an Italian trader.
I've been studying Gold since 2019.
My trading approach focuses on swing trading and intraday setups.
I need your support.
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Make sure to read the full description to understand today's trading plan.
Don't focus only on the chart. Thank you.
🌞 GOOD MORNING EVERYONE 🌞
🔍 Gold Price Action 🔍
This week brings several key economic releases.
Tomorrow, July 14, the main focus will be on the CPI, followed by the PPI on July 15 and Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday.
The primary market driver will be tomorrow's CPI report.
Meanwhile, the conflict continues to evolve. The United States has reportedly struck Iran for the third time this week. Market volatility will largely depend on Iran's response. If Iran launches further attacks on neighboring countries, U.S. Treasury yields and oil prices could rise sharply, putting additional downward pressure on gold.
At the same time, markets will continue to react to the escalating conflict in the Middle East, which is increasing geopolitical uncertainty.
That said, "higher oil prices = lower gold prices" is not a fixed rule.
In the short term, this can happen because higher oil prices may push Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher, weighing on gold. However, in other situations, heightened geopolitical risk can also boost demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, supporting its price.
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🔍 Reminder 🔍
I avoid trading during the Asian and London sessions.
My main focus is on the high-impact news releases at 8:30 AM ET and the New York session open at 9:30 AM ET.
In the meantime, I wish everyone a great day.
HAPPY TRADING
MANAGE YOUR RISK
BE PATIENT XAUUSD: Recovery Momentum Stalls Below ResistanceXAUUSD is showing signs of a short-term recovery but has yet to alter the bearish structure on the H1 timeframe. Prices continue to fluctuate below a multi-day downtrend line, and the Ichimoku cloud remains a dynamic resistance barrier, indicating that buying pressure is insufficient to regain control.
Fundamentally, market sentiment remains cautious ahead of a series of US inflation data releases and statements from Federal Reserve officials this week. US Treasury yields and the US dollar remain elevated, causing capital flows to favor USD-denominated assets over gold. This diminishes the precious metal's appeal and exerts pressure on short-term recovery attempts.
Technically, the $4,100–$4,106 zone represents a confluence of key resistance factors, including the downtrend line, an unfilled price gap, and the Ichimoku cloud. The chart suggests that prices may continue to retest this area before fresh selling pressure emerges. If sellers successfully defend this resistance zone, XAUUSD is likely to reverse lower toward $4,052, aligning with the underlying rising support line. The consistent formation of lower highs further indicates that the bearish trend remains intact.
Suggested strategy: Sell around 4,100–4,106, TP 4,052; invalidate if the price closes above 4,106.
This is a personal perspective only, not an investment recommendation. 
Short
EURCHF: long setup from resistance at 0.92348On OANDA:EURCHF , we have a strong resistance level, below which we've been consolidating for quite a while. Clear level tests indicate that someone is actively defending the price, so the asset is worth watching closely near this zone.
Although today's daily ATR is practically exhausted, given current market instability, the asset could shoot up or down at any moment, so we need to be ready. In this situation, I am leaning long: despite multiple tests of the level followed by downward moves, the drops are consistently bought back, returning the price to the level. Plus, the opening gap down has already been filled.
Do you see this setup differently? Let me know your thoughts in the comments.
If this logic aligns with your trading plan, support the idea with a boost!
Disclaimer: This publication is part of my public trading journal. The material is strictly for educational purposes, reflects my market perspective, and is not financial advice. Trading facts, not expectations. Every Trader Is a Piece in the GameIf the Market Were a Chess Game: (From my weekend thoughts)
When people think about trading, they often imagine numbers, charts, and indicators. But what if the market could be explained through a game that has existed for centuries? Chess and trading have more in common than most people realize. Neither game is won by making random moves or reacting emotionally. Success comes from patience, planning, and thinking several steps ahead. Every move has a purpose, every mistake has a consequence, and every decision changes the position of the game.
The Board:
Every chess match begins with the same board, but no two games are ever identical. Trading works in much the same way. Every trader looks at the same chart, yet everyone sees different opportunities. Support and resistance, trends, and important price levels become the squares where the battle between buyers and sellers takes place. Before a grandmaster makes a move, they study the entire board. Similarly, successful traders study the market before placing a trade instead of reacting to every candle they see.
The Pawns:
In chess, pawns are the most common pieces. Individually they are weak, but together they control space and influence the entire game. Retail traders often play a similar role in the market. Many buy after a breakout, panic during pullbacks, or place stop losses in obvious locations. On their own, these decisions may seem insignificant, but together they create the liquidity that drives the market. Without pawns, chess cannot be played. Without retail traders, financial markets would not have the same flow of orders.
The Queen:
The queen is the strongest piece on the chessboard. It can move in almost any direction and is often responsible for controlling the game. In trading, large institutions, banks, and hedge funds play a similar role. They have more capital, more information, and greater influence than individual traders. They do not enter trades based on emotions or simple indicators. Instead, they plan their moves carefully, looking for areas where enough liquidity exists to execute large orders. While retail traders often react to price, institutions are capable of creating the moves that everyone else reacts to.
Board Control:
One of the biggest mistakes beginners make in chess is focusing only on capturing pieces. Experienced players know that controlling the board is far more important than winning a single exchange. Trading follows the same principle. Many new traders spend their time trying to predict every reversal, while experienced traders focus on trading in the direction of the trend. A strong trend represents control. During an uptrend, buyers dominate the market. During a downtrend, sellers are in control. Trading against that control is often like attacking a well-defended king with only a single pawn.
Sacrifice:
Every great chess player understands that sometimes giving up a piece leads to a much greater advantage later in the game. The same idea exists in trading. Professional traders never expect to win every trade. They accept small losses because they understand that protecting their capital is more important than protecting their ego. A controlled loss is simply the cost of staying in the game. The traders who refuse to accept small losses often end up facing much larger ones.
Checkmate:
The ultimate goal in chess is not to capture every piece but to put your opponent in a position where no escape is possible. In trading, liquidity often plays a similar role. Price frequently moves toward areas where large numbers of stop losses and pending orders are placed. Many traders believe the market is hunting their stop loss, but in reality, it is searching for enough orders to fuel the next move. Once that liquidity has been collected, the market often continues in its intended direction.
What I think is...
Trading and chess share one important lesson. The winner is rarely the person who acts the fastest. It is usually the person who understands the position better than everyone else. Both reward patience over excitement, planning over guessing, and discipline over emotion. The next time you open a chart, imagine you are sitting in front of a chessboard. Instead of asking where price will go next, ask yourself one simple question.
Who controls the board right now?
That single question may change the way you look at the market forever.
By @BrightRally_Research on @TradingView 
Education
Long 
Double Bottom: Short-Term Bounce or the Start of a New Trend?Chart patterns are among the most recognizable tools in technical analysis, and few are as widely followed as the double bottom. The pattern often signals that selling pressure may be fading after a prolonged decline, with buyers beginning to challenge the prevailing trend. Once price breaks above the pattern's neckline, many traders immediately focus on the traditional measured-move target, expecting the market to travel the projected distance before momentum fades.
However, an important question often goes unanswered: does every double bottom simply lead to its projected objective, or can some breakouts mark the beginning of an entirely new trend?
Understanding the difference can help traders place chart patterns within a broader market context instead of treating them as isolated signals. In this educational case study, we'll examine a developing setup in Ether Futures (ETH) while also discussing Micro Ether Futures (MET). The objective is not to anticipate future price action, but rather to explore how combining multiple technical tools may provide additional insight into whether a breakout is more likely to remain a short-term move or evolve into something much larger.
Understanding the Double Bottom
A double bottom is a classic bullish reversal pattern that forms after an extended decline. It consists of two distinct lows separated by an intermediate rally. The area between the two lows forms the neckline, and only when price closes above this level does the pattern become technically confirmed.
Traditionally, the expected objective is calculated by measuring the vertical distance between the lows and the neckline, then projecting that same distance upward from the breakout level.
This measured move provides traders with a logical reference point, but it should not be interpreted as a guaranteed destination. Financial markets rarely move in perfectly measured swings, and numerous factors can influence whether momentum fades before the objective is reached, reaches the objective precisely, or continues well beyond it.
For this reason, experienced traders often look for additional technical evidence that helps distinguish between a temporary recovery and the early stages of a broader trend reversal.
A Developing Ether Futures Case Study
The accompanying chart illustrates an interesting educational example using Ether Futures (ETH) listed on CME.
After several months of downward price action, the market has developed a recognizable double bottom. The neckline of the pattern is located near 1,851.0, which represents the technical breakout level required to validate the formation.
Using the traditional measured-move calculation, the projected objective is approximately 2,189.0.
Viewed in isolation, this analysis would suggest that traders simply monitor whether price can reach the projected objective. Yet markets are rarely that straightforward. Some breakouts achieve their measured targets before sellers regain control and the primary downtrend resumes. Others become the first stage of an entirely new bullish trend that extends far beyond the original projection.
This distinction forms the central question of our analysis.
Looking Beyond the Pattern
One limitation of relying exclusively on chart patterns is that they describe price structure without necessarily describing the broader condition of the trend itself.
A breakout confirms that buyers have overcome an important resistance level, but it does not automatically reveal whether institutional participation is sufficient to sustain a longer-term advance.
This is where combining complementary technical tools can provide additional context.
Rather than asking only whether the double bottom has broken out, traders may also ask whether independent evidence suggests that the prevailing trend itself is beginning to change.
When several unrelated analytical techniques begin pointing toward the same conclusion, the resulting technical confluence can sometimes provide a more complete understanding of the evolving market structure.
Adding Trend Confirmation
One additional layer of analysis comes from the Supertrend indicator.
At the time of this study, the indicator continues to classify Ether Futures as being in a downtrend. However, something particularly interesting is occurring.
The Supertrend's extreme price level currently sits near 1,863.9, only a short distance above the double-bottom breakout level at 1,851.0.
The proximity of these two technical levels creates an area of potential confluence.
If price were to move above the neckline while also exceeding the Supertrend extreme, the market would not only be confirming the chart pattern itself, but it would also be providing additional evidence that the prevailing trend may be changing.
This distinction is important.
A breakout above the neckline alone may simply activate the measured move associated with the pattern.
A breakout that simultaneously shifts the broader trend environment may suggest that the measured target represents only an intermediate milestone rather than the final objective.
Of course, no technical indicator can guarantee future outcomes, and confirmation should always be viewed as one piece of evidence rather than definitive proof.
The Importance of Nearby Resistance
Even when bullish conditions improve, markets rarely move upward in a straight line.
The chart identifies an important UnFilled Orders (UFO) resistance zone located approximately between 1,959.0 and 2,140.5.
This area deserves attention because it lies directly between the breakout level and the projected double-bottom objective.
As price approaches overhead resistance, it is common for supply to increase temporarily. Markets frequently pause, consolidate, or retrace before attempting another advance.
Consequently, a temporary pullback after a successful breakout would not necessarily invalidate the bullish structure.
Instead, traders often monitor whether buyers continue defending progressively higher lows after such retracements.
If buying interest remains active despite short-term selling pressure, the developing structure may continue strengthening over time.
Conversely, failure to sustain the breakout could indicate that the pattern was insufficient to reverse the broader trend.
The objective is therefore not simply to identify resistance, but to understand how price behaves once resistance is encountered.
Measured Move or New Trend?
This brings us back to the original question.
If the market only confirms the double bottom, traders may naturally focus on the projected objective near 2,189.0 as the primary technical reference.
However, if the breakout also coincides with broader trend confirmation, the market structure itself may begin to change.
In such situations, the measured move becomes less of a destination and more of an intermediate checkpoint within a potentially larger trend development.
This illustrates why technical analysis often benefits from combining multiple perspectives rather than relying on a single chart pattern in isolation.
Instead of asking only "Where is the target?", traders may also consider asking:
Has the prevailing trend changed?
Is momentum improving?
Are important resistance levels being absorbed?
Is price continuing to establish higher highs and higher lows following the breakout?
Answering these questions may provide a richer understanding of market conditions than the measured projection alone.
Illustrative Trade Scenario
The following example is presented solely for educational purposes as a case study illustrating risk management concepts rather than as a trading recommendation.
One possible approach would involve waiting for confirmation above both the double-bottom breakout level near 1,851.0 and the nearby Supertrend confirmation level around 1,863.9.
The traditional chart objective would remain approximately 2,189.0, while a protective stop could hypothetically be placed beneath the breakout structure to define risk if the pattern were to fail.
Because every trader uses different position sizing methodologies, the exact stop location and resulting reward-to-risk ratio will vary.
The important lesson is not the specific numbers themselves, but rather the principle of defining both potential reward and acceptable risk before entering any position.
Should the broader trend continue strengthening beyond the measured objective, traders may then reassess market structure rather than assuming the initial projection automatically represents the end of the move.
Ether Futures and Micro Ether Futures
CME lists two relevant U.S. dollar-denominated contracts for this case study: the standard Ether Futures contract (ETH) and the smaller Micro Ether Futures contract (MET).
The contract specifications are materially different:
o Ether Futures (ETH)
Contract size: 50 ether
Minimum price fluctuation (tick): $0.50 per ether = $25.00 per contract
Current margin requirement: approximately $29,000 per contract
o Micro Ether Futures (MET)
Contract size: 0.10 ether
Minimum price fluctuation (tick): $0.50 per ether = $0.05 per contract
Current margin requirement: approximately $58 per contract
This means one standard ETH contract is equivalent in size to 500 MET contracts.
The much smaller MET contract allows position size to be adjusted in finer increments. This may be particularly relevant when the distance between the proposed entry and the technical invalidation level would otherwise create excessive dollar risk in the standard ETH contract.
For example, a $100 move in Ether would correspond to:
$5,000 of contract-value movement for one ETH contract
$10 of contract-value movement for one MET contract
Margin requirements are time-sensitive and may change as volatility and market conditions evolve. They also differ from broker-required initial, maintenance, overnight, or intraday margins. Traders should therefore verify the applicable amount with their futures broker before assessing position size.
The Role of Risk Management
Regardless of how attractive a chart pattern may appear, no technical setup guarantees success.
Markets continuously respond to new information, changing liquidity conditions, and evolving participant behavior.
For this reason, risk management remains one of the most important components of any trading methodology.
Some principles frequently considered include:
Defining risk before entering a position.
Avoiding oversized positions relative to account size.
Allowing the market to confirm a breakout rather than anticipating it.
Accepting invalidation when technical conditions change.
Remaining flexible as new information develops.
Perhaps the most valuable lesson is that uncertainty never disappears from financial markets.
Technical analysis seeks to organize probabilities, not eliminate uncertainty.
Final Thoughts
Double bottoms remain one of the most respected reversal patterns in technical analysis because they provide a clear framework for identifying potential changes in market sentiment.
Yet the measured objective should not necessarily be viewed as the final chapter of every successful breakout.
Sometimes it represents exactly what the pattern delivers—a defined move that eventually loses momentum.
Other times, the breakout occurs alongside broader evidence suggesting that the prevailing trend itself may be changing.
By combining classical chart patterns with trend analysis and nearby support and resistance assessment, traders can develop a more comprehensive framework for evaluating whether a breakout is simply a short-term bounce or the possible beginning of a broader trend reversal.
Whether the traditional measured objective ultimately becomes the destination—or merely the first milestone—depends on how the market continues to evolve after confirmation.
Data Consideration
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses. 
Education
Short 
U.S. Dollar Index 4H — Dollar Holds Above SupportU.S. Dollar Index 4H — Dollar Holds Above Support, Can Bulls Reclaim 101.50?
Market View
The U.S. Dollar Index is currently trading around the 101.15 area on the 4H chart. After a strong rally from the lower range near 98.00, DXY pushed higher and reached the 101.50–101.80 zone before entering a consolidation phase.
The broader structure still looks constructive, but the latest price action shows that momentum has slowed. Instead of continuing sharply higher, the index has been moving sideways between support and resistance. Buyers are still defending pullbacks, but they need to reclaim the upper resistance area to confirm stronger continuation.
Right now, DXY is sitting in a key short-term decision zone. If buyers can hold above 100.80–100.50 and push the price back above 101.50, bullish momentum may return. If not, the index may continue to consolidate or move into a deeper pullback.
Key Areas
From a market structure perspective, the U.S. Dollar Index remains in a bullish broader structure, but the short-term trend is currently consolidating.
The previous rally created a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows, especially after the breakout above the 100.00 psychological level. However, after reaching the 101.50–101.80 area, the price started to lose momentum and entered a sideways range.
The first key resistance zone is 101.40–101.60. This is the nearest area buyers need to reclaim to improve short-term momentum. If DXY breaks above this zone, the next resistance area is 101.80–102.00.
A stronger bullish continuation would require the price to break above 102.00 and hold above it. If that happens, the next upside zone could be 102.50–103.00.
On the downside, the nearest key support zone is 100.80–100.50. This area has been defended recently and remains important for keeping the current bullish structure alive.
If price breaks below 100.50, the next support area is 100.00–99.80. A deeper break below this zone could weaken the bullish structure and bring DXY back toward 99.50–99.00.
Forward Outlook
For the bullish scenario, DXY needs to hold above 100.80–100.50 and break above 101.40–101.60 with confirmation. If buyers manage to do that, the index may retest 101.80–102.00.
If momentum continues above 102.00, the next upside target would be 102.50–103.00. A sustained move into that area would confirm that buyers are regaining control and that the broader bullish structure remains strong.
For the bearish scenario, if DXY fails to break above 101.40–101.60 and falls below 100.50, short-term selling pressure may increase. In that case, the index could move back toward 100.00–99.80.
A clean break below 99.80 would weaken the current structure and may open the door for a deeper correction toward 99.50–99.00.
Market Sentiment
Market sentiment is currently neutral to cautiously bullish.
The broader trend still favors buyers, but DXY needs to break above 101.50 to confirm stronger upside momentum. Until then, the index may continue to move inside a consolidation range.
Above 101.60, recovery momentum may improve.
Above 102.00, bullish continuation may strengthen.
Below 100.50, short-term correction risk may increase.
Please share your view below:
Will the U.S. Dollar Index break above 101.60 and continue toward 102.00–103.00? Or will sellers defend the resistance zone and push DXY back toward 100.00? Nasdaq 100 4H — Bulls Hold the RangeNasdaq 100 4H — Bulls Hold the Range, But 30,000 Remains the Key Breakout Level
Market View
Nasdaq 100 is currently trading around the 29,800–29,900 area on the 4H chart. After a strong rally from the April low near 23,000, the index pushed aggressively higher and reached the 30,500–31,000 region before entering a consolidation phase.
The broader structure still remains constructive, but the latest price action shows that the market is no longer moving in a clean one-way uptrend. Instead, the Nasdaq 100 has been moving sideways between the 29,000 support area and the 30,500 resistance zone.
Right now, the index is testing the upper side of this short-term range again. If buyers can reclaim 30,000 and break above the recent resistance zone, bullish momentum may return. If not, price may continue to rotate inside the current consolidation structure.
Key Areas
From a market structure perspective, the Nasdaq 100 remains in a bullish structure overall, but the short-term trend is currently range-bound.
The strong recovery from the 23,000 area created a clear bullish impulse, with price forming higher highs and higher lows through April and May. However, after reaching the 30,500–31,000 zone, the index started to lose momentum and entered a choppy consolidation phase.
The first key resistance zone is 30,000–30,200. This is the immediate area buyers need to reclaim to improve short-term momentum.
Above that, the next important resistance zone is 30,500–31,000. This is the recent upper range, and a breakout above this area would confirm stronger bullish continuation.
If the index breaks above 31,000 with strength, the next upside target could be 31,500–32,000.
On the downside, the nearest key support zone is 29,300–29,000. This area has been defended several times recently and remains important for keeping the current range structure alive.
Below that, 28,500–28,200 becomes the next major support zone. If this area fails, the index may enter a deeper correction toward 27,500–27,000.
Forward Outlook
For the bullish scenario, the Nasdaq 100 needs to hold above 29,300–29,000 and break above 30,000–30,200 with confirmation. If buyers manage to do that, the index may retest 30,500–31,000.
A clean breakout above 31,000 would suggest that the consolidation phase is ending, and price may extend toward 31,500–32,000.
For the bearish scenario, if the Nasdaq 100 fails to hold above 29,000, short-term selling pressure may return. In that case, price could move back toward 28,500–28,200.
A clean break below 28,200 would weaken the current bullish structure and may open the door for a deeper pullback toward 27,500–27,000.
Market Sentiment
Market sentiment is currently neutral to cautiously bullish.
The broader trend still favors buyers, but the index needs to break above 30,000–30,200 before bullish momentum becomes more convincing. Until then, the Nasdaq 100 may continue to trade inside a consolidation range.
Above 30,200, recovery momentum may improve.
Above 31,000, bullish continuation may strengthen.
Below 29,000, short-term correction risk may increase.
Please share your view below:
Will the Nasdaq 100 break above 30,200 and retest the 31,000 resistance zone? Or will sellers defend the upper range again and push the index back toward 29,000? MASON XAUUSD – Trendline Break May Target Fibonacci
XAUUSD is trading around 4,071 after losing short-term recovery momentum near the Ichimoku structure. Price is now testing the rising trendline support, and the early-week focus is on whether gold can hold this structure or break lower.
The priority view is bearish if gold breaks below the trendline and strong support area. A clean breakdown may open the way toward the Fibonacci extension targets.
Technical View
Gold is currently moving inside a tightening structure between the descending resistance line and the rising trendline support. This shows that price is being compressed before a stronger move.
The short-term recovery has failed to break clearly above the Ichimoku resistance. Price remains under pressure near the cloud, which means buyers have not fully regained control. As long as gold stays below the Ichimoku resistance and below the FVG sell order zone, the upside remains limited.
The 4,100–4,106 area is the main FVG sell order zone on the chart. This zone is important because it aligns with the short-term resistance structure, Ichimoku pressure, and the descending trendline area. If gold retests this zone and rejects, it may confirm another lower high before the next bearish leg.
The 4,055–4,065 area is the strong support zone and also connects with the rising trendline. If price breaks below this area, the bullish correction structure may fail. That would confirm a trendline break and shift the short-term market back into stronger bearish continuation.
The first downside target is the Fibonacci 1.618 extension around 4,015–4,020. If selling pressure continues after breaking support, the next deeper target may be the Fibonacci 2.618 area around 3,950–3,960.
Key Zones
Current price: 4,071
FVG sell order zone: 4,100–4,106
Ichimoku resistance area: 4,085–4,111
Strong support: 4,055–4,065
Trendline breakdown zone: below 4,055
Fibonacci 1.618 target: 4,015–4,020
Fibonacci 2.618 target: 3,950–3,960
Invalidation: above 4,116
Trading Plan
Sell Priority: 4,100–4,106
Condition: wait for bearish rejection from the FVG sell order zone, failed recovery above Ichimoku, or a clean break below the rising trendline support.
SL: above 4,116
TP1: 4,055–4,065
TP2: 4,015–4,020
TP3: 3,950–3,960
Alternative Scenario
If gold breaks below 4,055 directly at the start of the week, wait for a retest of the broken trendline or support zone as resistance before looking for sell continuation toward the Fibonacci 1.618 target.
Buy View
Buy is not the priority while price stays below the FVG sell order zone and Ichimoku resistance. A short-term buy reaction may appear around 4,015–4,020, but it needs clear bullish confirmation first.
Final View
Overall, gold is still under short-term bearish pressure. The key point for the start of the week is the rising trendline support. If gold breaks below 4,055–4,065, the correction structure may fail and the downside path toward 4,015 and 3,950 becomes more realistic.
Will gold break the trendline early next week, or retest the FVG sell order zone before moving lower?
Short 
S&P 500 4H — Bulls Retest the HighsS&P 500 4H — Bulls Retest the Highs, Can the Index Break Above 7,600?
Market View
The S&P 500 is currently trading around the 7,570 area on the 4H chart, showing a strong recovery after the previous pullback toward the 7,300–7,350 zone. Buyers stepped back in from that support area and pushed the index back toward the recent high near 7,600.
The overall structure remains constructive. The index has recovered strongly from the earlier correction and is now testing the upper side of the recent range again. However, price is approaching a key resistance area, so the next reaction will be important.
If buyers can break above 7,600 with confirmation, the bullish trend may continue. If the index fails again near this zone, a short-term pullback or consolidation may appear.
Key Areas
From a market structure perspective, the S&P 500 remains in a bullish structure on the 4H chart. The index has been forming higher highs and higher lows since the strong recovery from the lower area near 6,300–6,400.
The recent pullback did not break the broader bullish structure. Instead, price found support around 7,300–7,350 and recovered back toward resistance. This suggests that buyers are still active on dips.
The first key resistance zone is 7,580–7,620. This is the current upper range and the area buyers need to clear to confirm bullish continuation.
If price breaks above this zone, the next resistance area is around 7,700–7,800. A stronger upside extension could bring the index toward 7,900–8,000.
On the downside, the nearest key support zone is 7,450–7,400. Holding above this area would keep short-term bullish momentum intact.
Below that, 7,350–7,300 is the more important support zone. This is where buyers previously defended the market. If that zone breaks, the index may enter a deeper correction toward 7,200–7,150.
Forward Outlook
For the bullish scenario, the S&P 500 needs to hold above 7,450–7,400 and break above 7,580–7,620 with confirmation. If this happens, buyers may push the index toward 7,700–7,800.
If momentum remains strong above 7,800, the next upside target could be 7,900–8,000. A sustained move above 8,000 would confirm a stronger bullish continuation structure.
For the bearish scenario, if the index rejects from 7,580–7,620 and falls below 7,400, short-term momentum may weaken. In that case, price could move back toward 7,350–7,300.
A clean break below 7,300 would suggest that the current breakout attempt has failed, and the index may move lower toward 7,200–7,150.
Market Sentiment
Market sentiment is currently bullish, but slightly cautious near resistance.
Buyers remain in control overall, and the recovery from the recent pullback shows that demand is still strong. However, the index is now retesting the previous high area, so confirmation above 7,600 is needed before the next bullish leg becomes more convincing.
Above 7,620, bullish momentum may strengthen.
Below 7,400, short-term pullback risk may increase.
Please share your view below:
Will the S&P 500 break above 7,600 and continue toward 7,800–8,000? Or will sellers defend the resistance zone and push the index back toward 7,300? GBP/USD 4H — Recovery Holds Above SupportGBP/USD 4H — Recovery Holds Above Support, But Bulls Need to Clear 1.3450
Market View
GBP/USD is currently trading around the 1.3370–1.3380 area on the 4H chart. After forming a local bottom near 1.3150–1.3180, the pair has been recovering gradually and recently pushed toward the 1.3420–1.3450 resistance area.
The recovery structure is still visible, but the latest pullback shows that buyers have not fully taken control yet. Price is holding above the previous breakout area, but the market needs a stronger move above resistance before the bullish scenario becomes more convincing.
Right now, GBP/USD is in a key short-term decision zone. If buyers defend the 1.3350 area and push the price back above 1.3450, the recovery may continue. If not, the pair may fall back into a deeper correction.
Key Areas
From a market structure perspective, GBP/USD has shifted from a previous bearish structure into a short-term recovery phase. The pair is no longer making fresh lows, and the recent sequence shows higher lows from the 1.3150–1.3180 base.
However, the broader structure is not fully bullish yet. The 1.3420–1.3450 area remains an important resistance zone. Price recently reacted from this region, which means sellers are still active near the upper range.
The first key resistance zone is 1.3420–1.3450. If GBP/USD breaks above this area, the next upside target would be 1.3500–1.3550. A stronger bullish continuation would require the price to reclaim 1.3600–1.3650.
On the downside, the nearest key support zone is 1.3350–1.3320. Holding above this area would keep the recovery structure alive. If this zone breaks, the next support area is 1.3250–1.3220, followed by 1.3180–1.3150.
Forward Outlook
For the bullish scenario, GBP/USD needs to hold above 1.3350–1.3320 and break above 1.3420–1.3450 with confirmation. If this happens, buyers may push price toward 1.3500–1.3550.
If the pair continues to hold above 1.3550, the recovery may extend toward 1.3600–1.3650, where the next major resistance could appear.
For the bearish scenario, if GBP/USD fails to break above 1.3420–1.3450 and falls below 1.3320, short-term recovery momentum may weaken. In that case, price could move back toward 1.3250–1.3220.
A clean break below 1.3180–1.3150 would suggest that the recovery structure has failed and that sellers may regain control.
Market Sentiment
Market sentiment is currently neutral with a cautious bullish recovery bias.
Buyers have managed to build a recovery from the lows, but the pair still needs to break above 1.3450 to confirm stronger upside momentum. Until then, the market may continue to move between support and resistance.
Above 1.3450, recovery momentum may improve.
Below 1.3320, short-term bearish pressure may return.
Please share your view below:
Will GBP/USD defend the 1.3320–1.3350 support zone and break above 1.3450? Or will sellers defend resistance again and push the pair back toward 1.3250? EUR/USD 4H — Bearish Pressure RemainsEUR/USD 4H — Bearish Pressure Remains, Can Buyers Defend the 1.1350 Support Zone?
Market View
EUR/USD is currently trading around the 1.1390–1.1400 area on the 4H chart. After a clear decline from the upper range near 1.1750–1.1800, price has been moving lower step by step, forming a broader bearish structure.
The pair recently attempted to stabilize after finding support near the 1.1330–1.1350 area, but the recovery has been limited so far. Buyers are attempting to defend the lower range, while sellers remain near the 1.1430–1.1450 resistance zone.
Right now, EUR/USD is sitting in a key decision area. If buyers can hold the lower support and reclaim resistance, a short-term recovery may continue. If not, the pair may return to downside pressure.
Key Areas
From a market structure perspective, EUR/USD remains in a bearish-to-neutral structure. The broader trend still shows lower highs and lower lows, which means sellers have controlled most of the recent movement.
The first key resistance zone is around 1.1430–1.1450. This is the nearest area where sellers have recently defended the price. If EUR/USD breaks above this zone, the next resistance area would be 1.1500–1.1530.
A stronger recovery would require the price to reclaim the 1.1580–1.1600 area. Until then, the broader bearish structure remains active.
On the downside, the nearest support zone is 1.1380–1.1350. If buyers defend this area, EUR/USD may continue consolidating and attempt another recovery. Below that, 1.1330–1.1300 becomes the next key support zone.
If 1.1300 breaks clearly, the market could open the way toward 1.1250–1.1230.
Forward Outlook
For the bullish scenario, EUR/USD needs to hold above 1.1380–1.1350 and break above 1.1430–1.1450 with confirmation. If this happens, buyers may push the price toward 1.1500–1.1530.
If the pair can continue holding above 1.1530, the recovery may extend toward 1.1580–1.1600. That area would be important for judging whether the broader structure is starting to improve.
For the bearish scenario, if EUR/USD fails to break above 1.1430–1.1450 and falls below 1.1350, sellers may regain stronger control. In that case, price could retest 1.1330–1.1300.
A clean break below 1.1300 would weaken the current consolidation and may bring further downside pressure toward 1.1250–1.1230.
Market Sentiment
Market sentiment is currently neutral to cautiously bearish.
Buyers are trying to defend the lower support area, but the pair has not yet shown enough strength to confirm a real bullish reversal. The market still needs a clear breakout above resistance before the recovery becomes more convincing.
Above 1.1450, recovery momentum may improve.
Below 1.1350, bearish pressure may return.
Please share your view below:
Will EUR/USD defend the 1.1350 support zone and recover toward 1.1500? Or will sellers break support and push the pair toward 1.1300? Gold (XAUUSD) Bullish Continuation After CHOCH | SMC Setup📊 Market Context & Technical Analysis
Looking at the XAUUSD 30-minute chart, we can see a clear structural shift from bearish to bullish, providing a high-probability long setup.
Market Structure Shift: After a period of downside movement marked by a Break of Structure (BOS) and a Market Structure Shift (MSS), price found a solid bottom around the 4,020 area.
Change of Character (CHOCH): A powerful impulsive move to the upside broke previous minor swing highs, confirming a CHOCH and transitioning the local trend back to bullish.
Trendline Support: The market has established a clear ascending support line, which price has respected multiple times.
Demand Zone Confluence: Price is currently retracing and compressing right into a freshly formed Demand Zone (approx. 4,100 - 4,106). This zone perfectly aligns with the dynamic ascending trendline support, offering strong confluence for a long entry.
🏹 The Trade Execution Plan
We are looking for a bullish reaction within the identified demand zone to ride the next impulse wave upward.
Direction: Long 🟢
Entry Zone: 4,100 - 4,106 (Within the highlighted blue Demand Zone)
Invalidation / Stop Loss (SSL): Below the recent swing low structure around 4,073 (Sell-Side Liquidity level).
Take Profit / Target (BSL): 4,138 (Targeting the Buy-Side Liquidity sitting at the recent swing high).
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer
Always wait for lower timeframe confirmation (e.g., a 1m to 5m CHOCH or bullish engulfing candle) inside the demand zone before executing to minimize risk. Manage your risk properly and never risk more than your plan allows. Long 
