Short
Scaramucci Says Bitcoin Apathy Is a Bullish SignalCrypto markets have been choppy lately, but Anthony Scaramucci remains confident about Bitcoin’s long-term outlook. The SkyBridge Capital founder says recent price swings haven’t changed his bullish view of the asset.
Speaking with CNBC, Scaramucci also brushed off concerns about Strategy’s massive Bitcoin position, arguing the company remains well-funded. He added that Bitcoin could continue following its historical four-year cycle, with the next major recovery potentially starting in late 2026 or early 2027.
Meanwhile, a recent peace deal and lower oil prices could help reduce inflation. If inflation falls, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates, which could support Bitcoin and other risk assets.
His Views on Bitcoin, Michael Saylor, and the Crypto Market
“I think Bitcoin starts a rally late in the fourth quarter of 2026 into early 2027.”
Scaramucci said Bitcoin is still tracking its usual post-halving cycle. He noted that ETF inflows and rising institutional interest have provided stronger support than in past bear markets. Because of this, he expects the next major recovery phase could start in late 2026 and continue into 2027.
“He’s definitely not in trouble… I like him. I think he’s going to be right.”
When asked about Michael Saylor, Scaramucci dismissed concerns about Strategy’s massive Bitcoin exposure. He said Saylor has a strong balance sheet, access to deep capital markets, and enough financial flexibility to handle further Bitcoin volatility. In his view, Saylor’s long-term Bitcoin strategy remains intact.
“The apathy is there. No one cares about it anymore.”
He also said market interest is very low right now, which he sees as a bullish sign. Bitcoin searches on Google have dropped, and overall investor hype has cooled. In the past, this kind of low interest has often shown up near market bottoms, not tops.
“When you have RSI where it is, apathy where it is, and it’s a thin market… a tiny bit of demand for Bitcoin moves the price.”
With 38 years of investing experience, Scaramucci said Bitcoin is at a stage where even small buying pressure can move prices sharply. Since the market is still small compared to major assets, new demand from institutions or retail investors can quickly drive it higher.
“I still like it. I own a lot of it.”
Giving confidence to the traders he said he still owns a good portion of Bitcoin, despite market uncertainty, he remains confident in its long-term outlook. His view is that the current market scenario looks far more like a late-cycle slowdown than the end of Bitcoin’s growth story.
Short
Long
Oil (WTI) – Focus on Movement Through the Strait!On Monday, Oil (WTI) prices gapped lower after the US and Iran both confirmed they had reached an interim peace agreement which would allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. This drop continued through Tuesday, to what was at the time a 3-month low at 76.261 as speculation grew regarding the impact unleashing these critical supplies from the Middle East region could have on oil prices.
Then, on Wednesday some uncertainty crept back in, were Iran fully on board with the deal, would the Strait reopen? This uncertainty helped prices spike briefly to print a high of 80.517. However, at this point President Trump stepped in. Once he confirmed that he had signed the interim peace deal ahead of schedule last night, he paved the way for oil prices to drop back down to new lows at 74.702 this morning (0700 BST).
Now looking forward, traders may be left in wait and see mode over the next 36 hours, watching and listening intently for updates on reports of the size and speed of actual shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz. After all, there still could be room for disappointment or a surprise statement which may inject a nasty jolt of price volatility into the Friday close. In this environment, keeping apprised of the technical trend and levels that may come into play, could be useful.
Technical Update: Breaking Lower From Range?
Since the price volatility seen between the March 9th high and March 10th low, price activity in Oil (WTI) had formed a broad and choppy sideways range, with sentiment dominated by the various headlines regarding the US-Iran conflict. However, since posting the June 3rd high at 99.33, followed by the news of the agreement of an interim peace deal, prices have encountered selling pressure, resulting in a 24% decline, into the latest price correction low.
Within this phase of price weakness, closing breaks below not only the April 17th low at 82.60 but also the 62% retracement at 79.55 have materialised, a level which we recently suggested could mark the lower limits of the sideways range. While this type of break lower isn’t a guarantee of further weakness, it may now see some traders questioning whether risks may be turning to the downside. If this is the case, it could prove beneficial to reassess where the next key support and resistance levels may stand.
Potential Support Levels:
After the latest phase of weakness including the close below the 62% retracement at 79.55, further price declines could be possible. If this were to be the case, traders may initially be focused on the low posted on March 5th at 75.05, as defining the next key support level.
A closing break below 75.05 could suggest downside pressure is increasing which may open potential for moves to test the next support at 69.39 (March 2nd low). This level also giving way on a closing basis may see risks materialise for further declines toward 61.88, which is the February 17th low.
Potential Resistance Levels:
Following the gap lower at Monday’s open, a possible resistance point has been left at 83.17, which is Monday’s session high. If a more extended phase of price strength is to emerge, closing breaks above 83.17 may now be required to suggest it.
As the chart above shows, breaks above 83.17 could shift attention toward higher resistance levels, possibly opening scope for tests of 84.54, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the June decline, and then the 50% retracement at 87.39.
The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
AAPL GEX - Testing 300 Call WallAAPL is consolidating on the daily chart after pulling back from the recent highs near 318 (nCOI zone), with price now sitting just below 300 — the highest call NETGEX wall on the board.
The stock remains structurally bullish on the daily timeframe, holding well above the 50 SMA and 200 SMA , but the immediate battle is whether momentum can reclaim and accept above the 300 multi-confluence cluster — or whether C1 continues to cap the bounce.
🔶 Regime Context 🔶
Price is trading well above HVL at 277.5 , keeping AAPL inside a positive GEX regime — price action typically becomes more controlled than below HVL. The broader gamma backdrop remains supportive, even as price compresses between nearby put support and the major call wall overhead.
🔶 Options Structure Context 🔶
👉 300 – C1 (highest call NETGEX wall)
Confluence at 300:
C1 — highest call NETGEX
Ab1 — largest absolute gamma
COI — highest call open interest
AbOI — largest absolute open interest
nCV / CV — strongest call volume flow
That makes 300 a clear reaction zone — not just a round number, but the densest call-side positioning cluster on the chart.
👉 310 – C2 — next call wall above if 300 clears
👉 318 – nCOI — overhead net call open interest reference from the recent peak zone
If price accepts above 300 , AAPL enters the positive gamma extension zone — gamma squeeze potential opens toward 310 (C2) and the 318 nCOI area if momentum holds.
🔶 Downside Structure 🔶
👉 292.5 – P3 — immediate put support below spot
👉 277.5 – HVL — regime pivot; loss of HVL would shift structure into a more reactive GEX environment
👉 250 – P2 + POI — secondary put cluster
👉 240 – P1 + nPOI — strongest put NETGEX wall on the chart
🔶 Options Sentiment 🔶
CALL$ 13.1% (66 DTE) means call options at an equivalent distance from spot are priced 13.1% higher than the corresponding puts — this is call pricing skew , reflecting modest upside demand rather than extreme call premium.
The Options Oscillator filled green histogram is rising from a recent low on the right edge — call pricing skew is building again after fading from prior peaks, consistent with renewed upside positioning interest as price approaches C1.
IVRank 32
IVx 24.3 (66 DTE) | IVx 5dCh -2.6%
CALL$ 13.1% (66 DTE) — call pricing skew
Implied move ±1.12% (±3.3)
🔶 Key Structure to Watch 🔶
300 – C1 multi-confluence call wall (immediate pivot)
292.5 – P3 immediate support
310 – C2 next upside target if C1 clears
277.5 – HVL regime pivot
For now, AAPL is pinned between P3 at 292.5 and the 300 call wall confluence , inside a positive GEX regime but below the heaviest call-side positioning.
The key question is whether momentum can break and hold above 300 — triggering extension toward 310 — or whether C1 rejects again and price retests 292.5 support. 
Long
GBPUSD – Buckle Up for a Busy 48 Hours of Event Risk!While the details of a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Friday are finalised, the attention of FX traders may shift to other market drivers. Amongst the major currency pairs, GBPUSD perhaps has the most event risk attached to it, with key UK economic data, a Federal Reserve and Bank of England interest rate decision and a crucial UK local election to consider, all in the space of 48 hours. Throughout June so far, GBPUSD has been rangebound, trading between a high of 1.3483 from June 5th and a low of 1.3306 from June 8th. It could be possible that things are about to change and traders may need to prepare for a more volatile period ahead.
The power 48-hour event risk window starts at 0700 BST on Wednesday with the latest UK CPI reading. Inflation in the UK is expected to have risen again, driven higher by energy prices, so any surprise prints, above or below what the market anticipates, could impact on the direction of GBPUSD as traders prepare for the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later in the day at 1900 BST. No change to US rates is widely expected, shifting the focus for FX traders to the comments made by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at his first press conference in charge. With US economic data resilient and inflation in May rising at its fastest pace for 3 years, his comments on future rate moves could send a fresh jolt of volatility through GBPUSD moving into Thursday morning.
Thursday’s attention shifts back to the UK and the GBP side of the currency pair. The initial focus is a local election in the town of Makerfield on the outskirts of Manchester. Andy Burnham, the current Mayor of Greater Manchester is standing for Labour. A win could see him make a swift challenge to current UK PM Kier Starmer’s leadership of the country, and given that Andy Burnham is seen as more likely to want to spend, this result could rock UK asset markets more than the Bank of England rate decision at 1200 BST, where policymakers are expected to keep rates unchanged again to buy time to assess another month of inflation and growth readings.
As you can see, preparing for GBPUSD volatility could be a wise move!
Technical Update: More Balanced Themes Ahead of By-Election:
When a period of sideways price activity develops in any asset, where buyers are active at the lower limits of a range and sellers at the upper extremes, it is generally viewed as a sign of balance in the market. This reflects neither side being able to dominate, resulting in choppy, sideways movement until a catalyst emerges that allows one side to gain the upper hand.
As the chart above shows, GBPUSD is currently caught within such a sideways range. On the downside, buyers have been active around 1.3303/06, the May 18th and June 8th lows, while any strength has been capped by resistance at 1.3525, a level equal to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the early‑May decline.
A close below 1.3303 or above 1.3525 may be required to suggest a breakout is materialising and help to provide an indication of where the next directional themes may lie.
Potential Resistance Levels:
We have already noted that 1.3525 appears to mark the upper boundary of the current balanced range. As such, closing breaks above 1.3525 may be needed to trigger further attempts to resume upside momentum.
As the chart above shows, if closing breaks above 1.3525 occur, this could open the way for further strength toward 1.3658, the May 1st high. A break above that level may act as a possible catalyst for an extension of the recovery, potentially opening the way for moves toward 1.3733, the February 4th extreme.
Potential Support Levels:
While the first resistance level at 1.3525 continues to cap prices on a closing basis, downside pressure could emerge. If weakness is seen, support at 1.3303/06, the lower boundary of the current range, may need to be monitored. Closing breaks below this zone could shift risks toward further downside.
As the chart above shows, closing breaks below 1.3303/06 could indicate scope for deeper price declines toward 1.3160, the March 31st session low, potentially further if that level also gives way on a closing basis.
The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
US 500– Downside Pressure Easing as Fed Steps Into the SpotlightLast week, mid-week jitters regarding a potential escalation of the Iran conflict and a resumption of worries about overvalued AI stocks saw the US 500 index drop to 6-week lows at 7229 early on Thursday morning. At that point a drop of 5.2% from its record highs of 7625 set on June 2nd.
However, the sour mood didn’t last, with sentiment into the weekend receiving a major boost from President Trump’s decision to call off new missile strikes on Iran, announcing teams from Washington and Tehran were close to signing an interim peace deal. At the same time, technology stocks within the US 500 rebounded, encouraged by the success of Elon Musk’s SpaceX record breaking IPO, reviving short term trader enthusiasm for everything AI.
This positive reversal into the weekend, may have left traders in wait and see mode when looking forward to the week ahead, uncertain of whether the rebound may have the impetus to continue or not. In this regard, the joint announcement on Sunday from the US-Iran that they have reached an interim peace agreement that should allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen on Friday (June 19th) has seen inflation concerns ease, helping the US 500 jump 1.3% to 7529 at the time of writing (0715 BST). In the short term, price action over the next 48 hours could be important in determining whether this is a, buy the rumour, sell the fact situation, or the start of a new up move to retest the early June record highs.
Looking further forward, there is the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision to consider on Wednesday at 1900 BST, followed by the press conference which starts at 1930 BST. This is the first decision presided over by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and while no change to interest rates is expected, his comments on future rate moves, stubbornly high inflation and resilient economic growth could be crucially important to determining how the US 500 performs into the Friday close.
Technical Update: Limited Bounce or Upside Resumption?
The news from the US-Iran conflict over the weekend has, so far at least, produced a positive reaction in US equities, and the US 500 index has been able to extend its latest price strength that has been developing from last week’s low. As the chart below shows, this price strength has pushed the index back above what might have been an anticipated resistance level at 7479, highlighted by the Bollinger mid‑average.
The result of this latest move above the mid‑average raises the question of whether the market is now attempting to resume the broader uptrend that has been in place since the March 31st low at 6312, or whether this is simply a relief‑driven bounce following the possible end of the conflict, before weakness resumes.
With that in mind, being aware of potential key support and resistance levels that may help traders to gauge where the next directional themes could emerge, could prove to be useful.
Potential Support Levels:
With price action having just broken above the mid‑average, at 7479, this level may act as an initial support focus. However, as the chart below shows, the key support this week may be 7376, which is a level equal to half of the latest price strength. If tested, it may be closing breaks below 7376 that suggests risks are turning toward renewed weakness, even further downside momentum.
Closing breaks below 7376 could lead to a deeper retracement of the March 31st to June 2nd advance. This may see declines extend toward 7208, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and potentially even 7106, the April 29th session low.
Potential Resistance Levels:
While closes in price remain above the support at 7376, further price strength is a possibility. While this continues, traders may focus on 7625, the June 2nd all‑time high, as the next resistance level.
If 7625 is broken on a closing basis, risks may shift toward further upside momentum, with potential to test 7774, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci extension. Closes above 7774 if seen, might then be viewed as positive, suggesting scope toward 7867, the higher 61.8% extension.
The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Long
Weekly Review - Internals Recover Before PriceTLDR:
The most important message from the dashboard is that internals improved faster than price. Leadership expanded, participation recovered and volatility normalized while price remains below recent highs. That combination suggests the market's internal condition is currently stronger than the recent price action alone would imply. The evidence therefore supports a regime of Acceptance with Renewed Participation, where market internals are once again confirming rather than questioning the message of price.
1️⃣ What do we see?
A week ago, the dashboard was raising legitimate questions about participation, leadership and volatility pressure.
Today, the picture looks very different.
The most important observation is not that price bounced. It is that the internal market structure improved significantly.
* VIX/VIX3M fell back to 0.86, indicating volatility normalization.
* S&P 500 stocks above SMA20 rose to 71%.
* S&P 500 stocks above SMA200 increased to 61%.
* NYSE New Highs expanded to 140 versus only 18 New Lows.
* NASDAQ New Highs expanded to 174 versus 91 New Lows.
* Advancing issues and advancing volume regained dominance across both exchanges.
Participation, leadership and breadth all improved simultaneously.
That combination is difficult to dismiss as a simple short-covering rally.
⸻
2️⃣ Thesis
The dashboard currently supports a view of Acceptance with Renewed Participation.
The recent selloff appears increasingly consistent with a rotation-induced shakeout rather than the beginning of a broad deterioration phase.
Leadership is expanding again.
Participation is broadening again.
Volatility pressure is easing again.
The market is not simply rising. The internal engine generating price has improved.
⸻
3️⃣ What validates the thesis?
The thesis remains valid if:
* VIX/VIX3M remains below 1.0 and continues normalizing.
* New Highs continue expanding relative to New Lows.
* % of stocks above SMA20 remains elevated or improves.
* % of stocks above SMA200 remains stable or trends higher.
* Advancing volume continues confirming price strength.
* Leadership remains broad across sectors rather than concentrated in a handful of names.
In that environment, internals continue confirming price.
⸻
4️⃣ What invalidates the thesis?
The thesis is invalidated if:
* VIX/VIX3M moves back toward or above 1.0.
* New Lows begin expanding materially.
* Leadership narrows again.
* % Above SMA20 rolls over sharply.
* Breadth weakens while price continues advancing.
That would indicate the recent improvement was temporary and that internal deterioration is re-emerging beneath the surface.
⸻
Why This Dashboard Matters
1. Reduction of Uncertainty / Confusion
Most market participants focus on the index and ask:
“Was the selloff meaningful?”
This dashboard asks a more useful question:
“Did market internals improve or deteriorate?”
Only a week ago, volatility pressure was rising, leadership was weakening and participation was becoming more selective. Today, those same indicators have improved materially. The framework allows us to observe that shift objectively rather than relying on opinions or emotions.
Instead of predicting the future, we measure whether the weight of evidence is strengthening or weakening.
I don’t need to know the future; I need to assess whether evidence is improving.
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2. Reduction of Effort
Without a framework, every market move feels different.
With this dashboard, we repeatedly examine the same recurring conditions:
* Volatility
* Participation
* Leadership
* Breadth
* Volume confirmation
This week we did not need hundreds of charts to understand the market. By monitoring VIX/VIX3M, New Highs versus New Lows, % Above SMA20, % Above SMA200 and Up/Down Volume, the market’s internal condition became clear.
The framework converts complexity into a small number of repeatable observations.
I don’t need to analyze everything; I need to recognize a handful of recurring conditions.
⸻
3. Identity Reinforcement
The objective is not to predict whether the market will be higher or lower next week.
The objective is to follow evidence.
A week ago, the dashboard suggested caution because participation was weakening and volatility pressure was rising. Today, the same framework identifies improving breadth, expanding leadership and normalized volatility.
The process did not change.
The evidence changed.
That is how disciplined investors operate. They adapt when evidence changes rather than defend opinions.
I am a process-driven investor, not a prediction-driven investor. Tesla Could Be SkiddingTesla tried to rally this spring along with the broader market, but it might be losing traction.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of higher lows since early April. The EV giant broke that short uptrend last week, which could be viewed as a bearish flag breakdown.
Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossed below the 100-day SMA in February and below the 200-day SMA in April. The 100-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA in May. That sequence, with faster SMAs below slower SMAs, could be viewed as evidence of a longer-term downtrend. (See the yellow markings.)
Third, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) just slipped under the 21-day EMA. Does that reflect short-term bearishness?
Fourth, Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been trending lower.
Next, Bollinger Band Width has stayed in a tight range. Could that volatility squeeze give way to increased movement?
Finally, TSLA is a highly active underlier in the options market. (Its average daily volume of 3.2 million contracts ranks second in the S&P 500, according to TradeStation data.) That could help traders take positions with calls and puts.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. Learn more here about TradingView’s Broker of the Year!
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TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means. Gold: Extension or Rebound From New 2026 Lows?Yesterday, Gold fell 4.4% to its trade at its lowest level since November 2025 at 4067. It then extended that move this morning to touch a fresh low of 4024 before rebounding to trade back around current levels at 4090 (0630 BST).
This week, Gold prices have been undermined by rising inflation risks driven by fresh skirmishes in the Middle East between Israel/US and Iran which has cast major doubts over the ability of all sides to agree a peace deal and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. These inflation worries were further backed up by yesterday’s US CPI release which showed consumer prices in May accelerated at their fastest pace for more than three years (Bloomberg), reinforcing concerns amongst traders that the Federal Reserve could be forced to consider interest rate hikes later in the year. A move which as a rule weighs on Gold which pays no interest.
Looking forward, updates on the current situation in the Middle East could be critical in determining whether the down move for Gold extends, if the geo-political situation worsens, or a rebound in price is seen on the back of any de-escalation in the region. Today’s US PPI, or factory gate inflation release, at 1330 BST may also be important to traders. It is historically a more volatile number than yesterday’s CPI reading, and any surprise prints above or below expectations could have an outsized impact on Gold prices into the weekend.
Technical Update: Price weakness Sees 4099 Closing Breaks:
Since posting a high on May 29th at 4595, the price of Gold has seen a near 12.5% decline, as the longer term downtrend pattern has extended. As the chart below shows, this decline has seen prices touch 4024, which is the lowest trade since November 21st 2025. This price activity has also prompted closes below what might have been expected to be support at 4099, which is the March 23rd low.
Having already seen an extended phase of weakness, it might be argued that an over-extended downside price condition may currently be in place, although this of course doesn’t mean a reactive recovery could be on the cards. In this environment, being aware of possible support and resistance levels may be beneficial.
Potential Support Focus:
Having seen the latest price weakness close below the 4099 March 23rd low, traders may now be searching for the next key support levels. It is possible that this morning’s latest low at 4024 could be a short term support focus, meaning breaks below this level may be needed to suggest further declines.
As the chart above shows, if 4024 were to give way on a closing basis, risks could shift toward 3998, which is the November 18th low. Should that level also fail to hold declines, the focus could then move to 3887, which is the October 28th low, and possibly represents a deeper support area.
Potential Resistance Focus:
Of course, recovery attempts do remain a possibility, and if the recent low at 4024 does continue to hold, a reactive recovery move may be possible. If price strength is seen, traders might be monitoring how 4197 is defended on a closing basis. This level is equal to half of this week’s current sell-off range.
If prices were to close above resistance at 4197, it could suggest scope for further upside moves toward 4242, which is the 38.2% retracement of the May 29th to June 11th decline. Breaks above this level could open the way for tests of 4310, the higher 50% Fibonacci level.
The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Long 
BTC: Bear regime day 15 — $62.2K, AI at 99% Bear across the boarRegime State
INDEX:BTCUSD is in a Bear regime for 15 bars with a strongly negative score. The RegimeRisk AI model is reading Bear at 99% confidence, and it isn't alone. BINANCE:ETHUSD is at 100%, SOL at 97%, ADA at 99%, BNB at 74%, DOGE at 89%. Every asset in the ensemble is reading Bear simultaneously, with four of six at 97% or above. The macro regime has shifted from Risk-On to Neutral with a mixed signal. Whatever the AI is processing across 200+ derivatives datapoints per asset right now, it is not seeing anything that resembles a floor.
The Setup
Price is at $62,198 on INDEX:BTCUSD , having opened at $61,708 and printed a session high of $62,824 - the first session in several bars where the high exceeded the open meaningfully, which is a minor character change worth noting. The 20 SMA is at $69,459 and declining steeply, with price $7,261 below a falling average. The chart from May 22 onward is unambiguous: 15 consecutive sessions of Bear regime background, each lower high confirming the trend. The brief Range label in the $76K–$77K zone in late May was the last pause before the acceleration through $74K, $72K, $70K, $67K, $64K and now $62K. Volume at 10.17K is elevated but below the June 5th capitulation session peak of 25.12K — the highest-volume session of the decline has already printed, which is one input worth tracking.
What Would Change the Read
With the AI at 99% Bear and cross-asset confirmation at near-unanimous levels, the model is not producing any signal that supports a reversal thesis today. A close back above $64K — the consolidation zone from June 4–6 — would be the first higher high of the Bear regime and the minimum structural requirement to suggest character change. A close below $60K opens the high-$50K zone with no reference points visible on the current chart. The one input that cuts marginally against the Bear read is the macro shift from Risk-On to Neutral rather than Risk-Off, the macro hasn't confirmed the asset-level Bear unanimity yet, and that divergence is the only thing in today's data worth watching for a potential turn.
Continuity
Previous Idea (June 5) noted the AI's Range confidence decaying toward Bear and flagged $60K as the level below which the high-$50K zone opens. Price tested $60,033 on June 5th and has since consolidated in the $61K–$64K band for five sessions. The AI read 97% Bear then. It reads 99% now. The consolidation has not changed the model's view. Short 
MSFT GEX - Sitting right on Put WallMSFT is pressing into a familiar options level again.
On the daily chart, price is currently trading around 403 , sitting directly on top of 400 – P1 , the strongest put NETGEX wall. This is now the third time price has tested this zone in the current structure — and historically, 400 has acted as both support and resistance , not a one-direction level.
The immediate question is what happens right here , at the put wall.
🔶 Regime Context 🔶
Price is trading below HVL at 410 , keeping MSFT inside a negative GEX regime , where moves can become more reactive than above the gamma flip.
Technically, spot is also below the 50 SMA (~411) and well below the 200 SMA (~455) , so the broader daily structure remains heavy even while 400 is being defended again.
The first upside stabilization reference is not C1 yet — it is whether MSFT can reclaim and hold above 410 (HVL) . Until then, the structure stays in a more volatile, reactive environment.
🔶 Downside Structure 🔶
👉 400 – P1 — strongest put NETGEX wall / current battleground
This is the level to watch now. A hold here keeps the third test alive as a potential base. A clean break below 400 would shift MSFT into the negative gamma extension zone , opening downside gamma squeeze potential toward the next put references.
👉 380 – P2 — next put wall below
👉 385 – P3 — secondary downside reference
🔶 Options Structure Context 🔶
The upside map is much higher from here:
👉 460 – C1 — primary call NETGEX wall
👉 500 – C2 — major call-side cluster
Confluence at 500:
C2 — second-largest call NETGEX wall
COI — highest call open interest
CV — strongest call volume today
That makes 500 a significant upside positioning cluster — but it is far from current price. For now, the focus is not whether MSFT can reach 500, but whether 400 holds long enough for a rebound toward 410 (HVL) first.
🔶 Options Sentiment 🔶
CALL$ 21% means call options at an equivalent distance from spot are priced 21% higher than the corresponding puts — this is call pricing skew . The reading is present, but not extreme.
The Options Oscillator green histogram is modestly elevated at the right edge, with call pricing skew stable rather than accelerating into the P1 test.
IVRank 57.8
IVx 33.9 | IVx 5dCh +23.1%
CALL$ 21% — call pricing skew
Implied move ±1.82% (±7.34)
🔶 Key Structure to Watch 🔶
400 (P1) — third test / immediate decision level
410 (HVL) — regime pivot; reclaim needed for stabilization
500 (C2 + COI + CV) — major upside call cluster if momentum returns
For now, MSFT is not in a clean trend-reversal setup yet — it is in a put-wall decision zone below HVL.
The key question is whether 400 holds on this third test and allows a rebound toward 410 , or whether a break below P1 opens the negative extension path toward 390 (P2) . Short 
S&P 500 vs Dow Jones: Why the S&P Fell Harder — The Market WasToday’s move was not just another red candle.
Both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones moved lower, but the S&P 500 showed more aggressive weakness. The candle was sharper, the support break was cleaner, and the reaction looked more unstable.
The Dow was weak.
But the S&P looked fragile.
For me, the reason is not only technical. It is structural.
The S&P 500 is a market-cap-weighted index. The largest companies have the strongest influence on its movement. In this market cycle, that means mega-cap technology, artificial intelligence, and semiconductor names carry a heavy part of the index behavior.
When this leadership is strong, the S&P looks powerful.
But when the same leadership starts to crack, the S&P can fall faster than expected.
The Dow Jones is different. It is made of only 30 companies and is price-weighted, so it does not react the same way to weakness in the AI and semiconductor trade. That is why the Dow also declined, but the move was less aggressive than the S&P.
The market was not selling everything equally.
It was selling the leadership.
On the S&P 500 4H chart, the key moment was the break around the **7,342–7,360** support zone. Price was already close to recent highs, so the market was vulnerable. Once this level failed, the move accelerated.
This is where selling becomes mechanical.
Support breaks.
Stops get triggered.
Late buyers exit.
Algorithms react.
Liquidity disappears.
Volatility expands.
That is why the candle became violent.
It was not only a normal pullback. It was a chain reaction after a crowded rally.
The Dow chart does not show the same level of technical damage yet. The move is negative, but not as clean as the S&P breakdown. For the Dow, I would watch the **50,400–50,500** area. If that zone starts failing, the weakness may spread more clearly.
But for now, the message is different:
The S&P is reacting like a concentrated momentum index.
The Dow is reacting like a weaker but less explosive traditional index.
Technically, the S&P 500 is now weaker as long as price remains below the broken **7,342–7,360** area. If price quickly reclaims this zone, the breakdown may turn into a bear trap.
But if this zone becomes resistance, then the chart is saying something more serious:
Buyers lost short-term control.
The bigger lesson is simple.
The S&P 500 may look diversified by name, but during AI-led markets, it can behave like a concentrated technology trade. When leadership rises, the whole index looks unstoppable. When leadership cracks, the whole index shakes.
Today’s volatility was not only about one red session.
It was a concentration test.
Too much weight.
Too much confidence.
Too much capital in the same leadership trade.
That is why the S&P 500 moved more aggressively than the Dow.
The market was not selling the whole economy equally.
It was selling the part of the market that carried the most expectation.
Germany 40 Index – Shifting Drivers, Iran Conflict to ECB Rate DVolatility in the Germany 40 index could remain elevated this week as while the Iran conflict, and more specifically the uneasy promises made by Israel and Iran to end missile attacks that initially sent the index down over 1.5% to an early low yesterday at 24335, currently loom large, the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision on Thursday is another important event for traders to prepare, digest and then react to.
The ECB is expected by economists to be the first amongst the world’s biggest central banks to raise interest rates in an attempt to rein in rising inflation, driven higher by soaring energy costs. Policymakers are expected to deliver a 25 bps (0.25%) hike when the announcement is released at 1315 BST on Thursday. This is anticipated to be an insurance move to keep the ECB from falling behind the curve and having to hike rates at a fastest pace later in 2026 if price rises were to start to accelerate more aggressively.
While, the rate announcement could be an important volatility driver, what ECB President Lagarde says in the press conference (Commences 1345 BST) about future rate moves, inflation and Eurozone growth moving into the second half of 2026 could be just as critical. Madame Lagarde is expected to signal a further rate hike in September, and then another before the end of the year. Any changes to this timeline could introduce extra volatility to the Germany 40 index.
Technical Update: Correction Themes Gathering Pace?
Following the posting of the May 25th session high at 25449, the Germany 40 index has entered a corrective phase, with prices selling off as a reaction to the recent advance.
While it is impossible to know how far this type of move may extend, traders could now be focusing on Friday’s closing break below the Bollinger mid‑average (currently 24750), a level that might previously have been expected to act as support.
The question this week is whether this drop develops into a more extended phase of weakness, or if it proves to be a limited correction from which fresh strength can emerge. With the Iran conflict offering constant headline updates and then the ECB rate decision on Thursday, being aware of the next potential key support and resistance levels may prove useful for traders when managing their risk.
Possible Support Levels:
After last week’s closing break below the mid‑average, traders may now be anticipating the risk of further price weakness. As a result, attention could turn to the next potential support at 24335, which is Monday’s low and rally point. Confirmed closing breaks below this level could lead to additional downside pressure.
If this were to occur, closes below 24335 may shift risks toward a deeper decline, with the focus moving to 24072, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March 23rd to May 25th advance, and then potentially 23603/23648, a combination of the April 30th low and the 50% retracement level.
Potential Resistance Levels:
Following the latest phase of price weakness since the May 25th high, it may be the Fibonacci retracements of the latest decline that define potential resistance levels across the remainder of this week.
As the chart above shows, the 38.2% retracement at 24755 may be the first key level, and closing breaks above it could generate further upside momentum. This may lead to tests of 25020, which is equal to the 61.8% retracement, and if this level gives way, possibly a move back toward the 25449 May 25th high.
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