Options Expected Move Bands [Strikeline]
Options Expected Move Bands shows how far price is expected to travel before your options expire, and how much of that move is still left.
WORKS ON
Any symbol with options or without: stocks, ETFs, indices and futures. Index products (SPX/SPY, NDX/QQQ, RUT/IWM) use their own volatility index; everything else uses the symbol's historical volatility, or a manual IV.
WHAT IT DRAWS
• Cycle bands: fixed at the start of each expiration cycle from the previous close. A shaded ±1σ band, solid lines at ±1σ, dotted lines at ±2σ, and the anchor.
±1σ ≈ 68% of cycles end inside it. Strikes outside it are "outside the expected move".
• Live cone: the move still priced in from the current price to expiration. It narrows as time passes.
• Optional faded bands from previous cycles, so you can see how often price stayed inside.
• A reading line under the indicator list, for example "Inside the expected move to expiration: 40% used, 2.5 days left" or "Outside the expected move (−1σ) with 1.0 days left". English, Arabic, Spanish or Turkish.
• An optional dashboard (off by default): expiration and trading days left, volatility at the cycle start and now, the cycle move in points and percent, the cycle range, the nearest listed strikes at ±1σ, the move left, where price sits in σ, and the next earnings date on stocks.
HOW IT WORKS
σ = anchor × IV × √(trading days to expiration ÷ 252).
Expirations: 0DTE (today 16:00 New York), Weekly (this Friday) or Monthly (third Friday).
Volatility source (Auto):
• SPX / SPY: VIX1D for 0DTE, VIX9D for Weekly, VIX for Monthly, matched to the time left.
• NDX / QQQ: VXN. RUT / IWM: RVX.
• Other symbols: historical volatility (20 days by default), or a manual IV.
The cycle bands use the previous day's volatility close and never repaint. The live cone uses the current volatility value and the current price.
HOW TO USE IT
1. Pick the expiration you trade.
2. Compare your strikes with the ±1σ band: inside means the market expects price could reach it; outside means it needs a bigger than expected move.
3. Watch the reading line and the cone during the cycle: how much of the move is used and how much is still priced in.
4. Optional alerts: above +1σ / below −1σ, above +2σ / below −2σ.
WHY IT IS DIFFERENT
It ties the volatility index to the expiration (VIX1D, VIX9D or VIX instead of always VIX), keeps a fixed cycle band and a live cone side by side, shows the nearest real strikes at the edges, warns when earnings fall before expiry, and sums it up in one plain sentence in four languages.
EXAMPLES
QQQ, 30 minutes, Weekly expiration, previous cycles kept. Most weeks stayed inside ±1σ; the week of 12 Oct broke below −1σ. This week the high stopped a few points under +1σ while the live cone narrows toward Friday.
AAPL, 30 minutes, Weekly expiration. On 23 Oct the spike reached the weekly +1σ and reversed.
LIMITATIONS
• σ bands assume a normal distribution. Real markets have fat tails.
• Historical volatility does not know about upcoming earnings. When earnings fall before expiry, the dashboard and the reading warn you: the real move can be bigger.
• The VIX family measures index options, not each ETF's own chain.
• Market holidays are not adjusted. Free TradingView data may be delayed.
• The reading line describes where price is. It is not a buy or sell signal.
Educational tool. Not financial advice.
بالعربي
يشتغل على أي رمز. يوضح كم يتوقع السوق يتحرك السعر لين ينتهي عقدك (نفس اليوم أو أسبوعي أو شهري)، وكم باقي من هالحركة. فيه نطاق ثابت لكل دورة، ومخروط حي يضيق مع الوقت، وأقرب سترايكات عند ±1σ، وتنبيه إذا فيه أرباح قبل الانتهاء. وسطر القراءة يطلع بالعربي من الإعدادات. أداة تعليمية، وليست نصيحة مالية.
WORKS ON
Any symbol with options or without: stocks, ETFs, indices and futures. Index products (SPX/SPY, NDX/QQQ, RUT/IWM) use their own volatility index; everything else uses the symbol's historical volatility, or a manual IV.
WHAT IT DRAWS
• Cycle bands: fixed at the start of each expiration cycle from the previous close. A shaded ±1σ band, solid lines at ±1σ, dotted lines at ±2σ, and the anchor.
±1σ ≈ 68% of cycles end inside it. Strikes outside it are "outside the expected move".
• Live cone: the move still priced in from the current price to expiration. It narrows as time passes.
• Optional faded bands from previous cycles, so you can see how often price stayed inside.
• A reading line under the indicator list, for example "Inside the expected move to expiration: 40% used, 2.5 days left" or "Outside the expected move (−1σ) with 1.0 days left". English, Arabic, Spanish or Turkish.
• An optional dashboard (off by default): expiration and trading days left, volatility at the cycle start and now, the cycle move in points and percent, the cycle range, the nearest listed strikes at ±1σ, the move left, where price sits in σ, and the next earnings date on stocks.
HOW IT WORKS
σ = anchor × IV × √(trading days to expiration ÷ 252).
Expirations: 0DTE (today 16:00 New York), Weekly (this Friday) or Monthly (third Friday).
Volatility source (Auto):
• SPX / SPY: VIX1D for 0DTE, VIX9D for Weekly, VIX for Monthly, matched to the time left.
• NDX / QQQ: VXN. RUT / IWM: RVX.
• Other symbols: historical volatility (20 days by default), or a manual IV.
The cycle bands use the previous day's volatility close and never repaint. The live cone uses the current volatility value and the current price.
HOW TO USE IT
1. Pick the expiration you trade.
2. Compare your strikes with the ±1σ band: inside means the market expects price could reach it; outside means it needs a bigger than expected move.
3. Watch the reading line and the cone during the cycle: how much of the move is used and how much is still priced in.
4. Optional alerts: above +1σ / below −1σ, above +2σ / below −2σ.
WHY IT IS DIFFERENT
It ties the volatility index to the expiration (VIX1D, VIX9D or VIX instead of always VIX), keeps a fixed cycle band and a live cone side by side, shows the nearest real strikes at the edges, warns when earnings fall before expiry, and sums it up in one plain sentence in four languages.
EXAMPLES
QQQ, 30 minutes, Weekly expiration, previous cycles kept. Most weeks stayed inside ±1σ; the week of 12 Oct broke below −1σ. This week the high stopped a few points under +1σ while the live cone narrows toward Friday.
AAPL, 30 minutes, Weekly expiration. On 23 Oct the spike reached the weekly +1σ and reversed.
LIMITATIONS
• σ bands assume a normal distribution. Real markets have fat tails.
• Historical volatility does not know about upcoming earnings. When earnings fall before expiry, the dashboard and the reading warn you: the real move can be bigger.
• The VIX family measures index options, not each ETF's own chain.
• Market holidays are not adjusted. Free TradingView data may be delayed.
• The reading line describes where price is. It is not a buy or sell signal.
Educational tool. Not financial advice.
بالعربي
يشتغل على أي رمز. يوضح كم يتوقع السوق يتحرك السعر لين ينتهي عقدك (نفس اليوم أو أسبوعي أو شهري)، وكم باقي من هالحركة. فيه نطاق ثابت لكل دورة، ومخروط حي يضيق مع الوقت، وأقرب سترايكات عند ±1σ، وتنبيه إذا فيه أرباح قبل الانتهاء. وسطر القراءة يطلع بالعربي من الإعدادات. أداة تعليمية، وليست نصيحة مالية.
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并非旨在提供，也不构成TradingView提供或认可的任何形式的财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议或推荐。请阅读使用条款了解更多信息。
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并非旨在提供，也不构成TradingView提供或认可的任何形式的财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议或推荐。请阅读使用条款了解更多信息。