OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT

Futures: NQ Overnight Range (% of Daily ATR)

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## Futures: NQ Overnight Range (% of Daily ATR) — ORB Trading Guide

### What this indicator does

This indicator is built for **NQ / MNQ futures** and is meant to support **Opening Range Breakout (ORB)** trading.

Because futures trade nearly 24 hours, a lot of important movement happens during **Asia + London**. This script measures the **Overnight Range** from **18:00 to 09:30** (exchange time), then compares it to the market’s **typical full-day movement** using **Daily ATR(14)**.

The goal is simple:

> **Before the open, decide whether the day is more likely to behave like a “chop day” or an “expansion day,” and then choose the ORB style that matches.**

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## Key terms (plain English)

### Daily ATR(14)

ATR is the average daily movement over the last 14 days.

Think of it as:

> “On a normal day, NQ tends to move about *X* points.”

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### Overnight Range (18:00–09:30)

This is the distance between the **overnight high** and **overnight low** from 18:00 to 09:30.

Think of it as:

> “How much NQ already moved before the cash open.”

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### Overnight Range % of ATR

This is the “volatility meter” for the day:

[
\text{Overnight Range % of ATR} = \frac{\text{Overnight Range}}{\text{Daily ATR}} \times 100
]

It answers:

> “How much of a normal day’s movement already happened overnight?”

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## How to interpret the Regime label

This script classifies the day into one of three “regimes”:

### **CHOP-LEANING** (Overnight Range < 25% of Daily ATR)

Overnight was quiet. The open is more likely to be:

* range-bound
* full of fakeouts
* slower follow-through

### **NEUTRAL** (25%–50%)

Normal overnight activity. Either outcome is possible:

* trend or chop
* you must let the open confirm it

### **EXPANSION-LEANING** (Overnight Range > 50%)

Overnight was very active. The open is more likely to:

* move faster
* expand range quickly
* have stronger directional pushes (or sharp swings)

**Important:** Expansion does not guarantee a clean trend. It means **movement is more likely**.

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# How I use this indicator with ORB (my rules)

This indicator is not a buy/sell signal by itself.
I use it to decide **which ORB style to trade**.

## Step 1 — Check the “Regime” before the open

* If the indicator reads **EXPANSION-LEANING**, I treat it like a momentum environment.
* If the indicator reads **CHOP-LEANING**, I treat it like a confirmation environment.
* If it reads **NEUTRAL**, I stay selective and let price action confirm.

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## Step 2 — ORB Execution Rules

### ✅ If **EXPANSION-LEANING** (momentum day)

**Goal:** Catch the move early and avoid missing the breakout.

**My ORB plan:**

* Build my opening range using the **5-minute ORB**
* Enter on a **break of the ORB level**
* Use the **1-minute timeframe** for the actual entry trigger

**How I confirm the break:**

* I want a clean break through the ORB level (not just a wick touch)
* If price snaps immediately back inside the ORB, I avoid chasing

This approach fits expansion days because the market can move quickly and waiting for perfect retests can cause you to miss the push.

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### ✅ If **CHOP-LEANING** (confirmation day)

**Goal:** Avoid fakeouts and only enter when the break proves itself.

**My ORB plan:**

* Build my opening range using a **15-minute ORB**
* I do **not** enter on the first break
* I wait for a **break and retest**
* Then I use the **5-minute timeframe** to confirm the retest holds before entry

This fits chop days because breaks fail more often, so I require confirmation before committing.

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### ✅ If **NEUTRAL**

**Goal:** Reduce low-quality trades.

**My ORB plan:**

* Treat it as “wait and see”
* Only take the break if price shows strong conviction (hold outside ORB)
* If price is whipping in and out of the range, I skip the trade

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## Best practices

* This indicator works best on **1m / 5m / 15m charts** so the overnight high/low is captured accurately.
* Times are based on the symbol’s **exchange time**.
* Use proper risk management—futures can move fast, especially on expansion days.

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## Disclaimer

This script is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Futures trading carries significant risk. Always use risk management and test any approach before trading live.

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