OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Risk Metric
ZIZO Risk Metric
Hard money. Don't trust. Verify.
OVERVIEW
ZIZO Risk Metric scores Bitcoin on a 0–100 scale. 0 means maximum opportunity (deep value). 100 means maximum risk (stretched). It answers one question: how expensive is price right now relative to its own long-term trend?
Every anchor in this script is fixed and chosen on purpose. Nothing refits itself to recent price. That is the point — the metric is a verification tool, not a curve that chases the market.
THE IDEA
Price rarely sits at a fair value. It swings between two log-scaled boundaries around a 200-period moving average. This script measures where price sits between those two boundaries, on a log scale, and turns that position into a single number.
Low readings cluster near cycle bottoms. High readings cluster near cycle tops. The scale compresses over time to reflect diminishing returns as the asset matures.
HOW IT WORKS
Two bounds are built from the SMA:
Upper bound = 3.0 × SMA × scale
Lower bound = 0.35 × SMA (static by default)
The scale factor gently contracts the upper bound over time:
scale = e^(decay × (bar_index − offset) × sensitivity) + baseline
Risk is the log-distance of price between the two bounds:
Risk = (ln price − ln lower) / (ln upper − ln lower), clamped to 0–1, shown ×100.
The smoothed line applies the same transform to the SMA instead of raw price. It strips out daily noise and shows the underlying cycle position.
HOW TO READ IT
Colour map runs cool (low risk) to hot (high risk).
Green zone = accumulation. Red zone = distribution.
Exit threshold default: 89.43. Entry threshold default: 32.79.
The weighted Entry/Exit plot suggests a DCA weight that scales up as risk moves deeper into a zone. It only fires inside the entry or exit band, and it caps at the cutoff (default 9%).
SETTINGS
Risk Metric — SMA length, time offset, decay, sensitivity, baseline, and the two bounds. These define the model. Once calibrated, leave them fixed.
Colorway — heat-map colouring and the legend table.
Weighted Entry/Exit — base, exponent, cutoff, and the two thresholds that define the accumulation and distribution zones.
Model X Overlays — threshold lines, shaded zone fills, and an optional 50 midline.
Timeframe — evaluate the metric on Daily, Weekly, Monthly, or the chart's own resolution.
WHAT THIS VERSION ADDS
Rebuilt on foosmoo's Risk Metric core. Additions over the original:
Full colour-map redesign on a clean 0–100 display scale
Smoothed risk line derived from the SMA
Weighted, zone-aware entry/exit DCA percentages
Threshold lines, zone fills, and midline overlays
Time-offset marker and colour-map legend table
Entry-zone and exit-zone alert conditions
CREDITS & LICENSE
Based on foosmoo's Risk Metric (v2.2), used under the Mozilla Public License 2.0. This script keeps that licence. Full text: mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
DISCLAIMER
This is an educational and research tool, not financial advice. Risk metrics describe the past and present. They do not predict the future. Verify every number yourself before acting on it.
Hard money. Don't trust. Verify.
Hard money. Don't trust. Verify.
OVERVIEW
ZIZO Risk Metric scores Bitcoin on a 0–100 scale. 0 means maximum opportunity (deep value). 100 means maximum risk (stretched). It answers one question: how expensive is price right now relative to its own long-term trend?
Every anchor in this script is fixed and chosen on purpose. Nothing refits itself to recent price. That is the point — the metric is a verification tool, not a curve that chases the market.
THE IDEA
Price rarely sits at a fair value. It swings between two log-scaled boundaries around a 200-period moving average. This script measures where price sits between those two boundaries, on a log scale, and turns that position into a single number.
Low readings cluster near cycle bottoms. High readings cluster near cycle tops. The scale compresses over time to reflect diminishing returns as the asset matures.
HOW IT WORKS
Two bounds are built from the SMA:
Upper bound = 3.0 × SMA × scale
Lower bound = 0.35 × SMA (static by default)
The scale factor gently contracts the upper bound over time:
scale = e^(decay × (bar_index − offset) × sensitivity) + baseline
Risk is the log-distance of price between the two bounds:
Risk = (ln price − ln lower) / (ln upper − ln lower), clamped to 0–1, shown ×100.
The smoothed line applies the same transform to the SMA instead of raw price. It strips out daily noise and shows the underlying cycle position.
HOW TO READ IT
Colour map runs cool (low risk) to hot (high risk).
Green zone = accumulation. Red zone = distribution.
Exit threshold default: 89.43. Entry threshold default: 32.79.
The weighted Entry/Exit plot suggests a DCA weight that scales up as risk moves deeper into a zone. It only fires inside the entry or exit band, and it caps at the cutoff (default 9%).
SETTINGS
Risk Metric — SMA length, time offset, decay, sensitivity, baseline, and the two bounds. These define the model. Once calibrated, leave them fixed.
Colorway — heat-map colouring and the legend table.
Weighted Entry/Exit — base, exponent, cutoff, and the two thresholds that define the accumulation and distribution zones.
Model X Overlays — threshold lines, shaded zone fills, and an optional 50 midline.
Timeframe — evaluate the metric on Daily, Weekly, Monthly, or the chart's own resolution.
WHAT THIS VERSION ADDS
Rebuilt on foosmoo's Risk Metric core. Additions over the original:
Full colour-map redesign on a clean 0–100 display scale
Smoothed risk line derived from the SMA
Weighted, zone-aware entry/exit DCA percentages
Threshold lines, zone fills, and midline overlays
Time-offset marker and colour-map legend table
Entry-zone and exit-zone alert conditions
CREDITS & LICENSE
Based on foosmoo's Risk Metric (v2.2), used under the Mozilla Public License 2.0. This script keeps that licence. Full text: mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
DISCLAIMER
This is an educational and research tool, not financial advice. Risk metrics describe the past and present. They do not predict the future. Verify every number yourself before acting on it.
Hard money. Don't trust. Verify.
开源脚本
秉承TradingView的精神，该脚本的作者将其开源，以便交易者可以查看和验证其功能。向作者致敬！您可以免费使用该脚本，但请记住，重新发布代码须遵守我们的网站规则。
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并非旨在提供，也不构成TradingView提供或认可的任何形式的财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议或推荐。请阅读使用条款了解更多信息。
开源脚本
秉承TradingView的精神，该脚本的作者将其开源，以便交易者可以查看和验证其功能。向作者致敬！您可以免费使用该脚本，但请记住，重新发布代码须遵守我们的网站规则。
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并非旨在提供，也不构成TradingView提供或认可的任何形式的财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议或推荐。请阅读使用条款了解更多信息。